LATVIA VIRSLIGA
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Jana Skredela stadions

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 78%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
78%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Super Nova Win 22%
Draw 23.1%
BFC Daugavpils Win 54.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Super Nova1.22
BFC Daugavpils1.35
Recent Form (Last 5)
Super Nova Super Nova
WWDLW
32 GF / 45 GA
BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils
WLDWL
40 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
1.18
1.61
Average Goals Conceded
1.35
18
BTTS Yes
17
16
Over 2.5
15
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Super Nova Super Nova 28 matches
BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 34 matches
Super Nova Statistic BFC Daugavpils
9 Wins 12
4 Draws 6
15 Losses 16
32 Goals For 40
45 Goals Against 46
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
1.61 Avg Goals Conceded 1.35
18 BTTS Yes 17
23 Over 1.5 21
16 Over 2.5 15
5 Over 3.5 10
5 Clean Sheets 8
6 Failed To Score 11
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features BFC Daugavpils's more proactive style and Super Nova's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward BFC Daugavpils having the stronger overall control. BFC Daugavpils look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring BFC Daugavpils.

Super Nova Analysis

Super Nova sit 6 with 27 points after 24 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 3 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 26:37 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

BFC Daugavpils Analysis

BFC Daugavpils approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 36 points after 26 outings. They have recorded 10 wins, 6 draws, and 10 losses, with a 33:31 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Super Nova won 4 times, BFC Daugavpils won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:18 from Super Nova's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (78%)
Predicted formations: Super Nova - / BFC Daugavpils 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Super Nova wins 4, draws 6, BFC Daugavpils wins 5
Last matches: Super Nova
09.08.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
20.07.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
2
0
W
06.07.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
1
2
L
01.07.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
2
1
W
25.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
1
5
L
21.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
0
2
L
16.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
12.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
29.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
24.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Riga
0
3
L
20.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
2
0
W
16.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
3
1
W
11.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
1
1
D
06.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
0
1
L
01.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
1
2
L
27.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
W
23.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
18.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
14.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Riga
1
4
L
09.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
1
0
W
Last matches: BFC Daugavpils
08.08.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
2
0
W
01.08.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
2
1
W
26.07.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
0
1
L
19.07.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
4
0
W
04.07.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
3
1
W
30.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
1
3
L
25.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
0
0
D
20.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
1
0
W
16.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
0
D
12.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
1
1
D
31.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
26.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
0
1
L
21.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
3
1
W
17.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
13.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
08.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
1
3
L
02.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
1
1
D
27.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
1
L
21.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
1
1
D
16.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
H2H: Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils
16.06.26
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
0
D
27.04.26
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
1
W
25.10.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
2
2
D
02.08.25
H2H
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
01.06.25
H2H
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
4
1
W
15.04.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
1
1
D
23.09.23
H2H
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
L
05.07.23
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
2
0
L
14.05.23
H2H
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
0
4
L
01.04.23
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
3
0
L
19.02.23
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
1
4
W
29.10.22
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
1
1
D
20.08.22
H2H
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
W
21.06.22
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
1
0
L
19.04.22
H2H
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
Last matches: Super Nova
09.08.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
20.07.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
2
0
W
06.07.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
1
2
L
25.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
1
5
L
21.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
0
2
L
29.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
16.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
3
1
W
11.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
1
1
D
01.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
1
2
L
23.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
14.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Riga
1
4
L
15.03.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
H2H at home: Super Nova
02.08.25
H2H
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
01.06.25
H2H
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
4
1
W
23.09.23
H2H
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
L
14.05.23
H2H
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
0
4
L
20.08.22
H2H
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
W
19.04.22
H2H
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
Last matches: BFC Daugavpils
26.07.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
0
1
L
19.07.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
4
0
W
30.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
1
3
L
12.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
1
1
D
31.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
17.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
02.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
1
1
D
21.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
1
1
D
12.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
3
2
W
21.03.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
1
4
L
14.03.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
2
4
L
28.02.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
14.02.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Suduva Marijampole
3
5
L
07.02.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Šiauliai
0
1
L
31.01.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Flora Tallinn
0
4
L
28.01.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
FK Trakai
1
2
L
24.01.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
TransINVEST Vilnius
1
0
W
17.01.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Panevėžys
0
1
L
10.07.25
UEF
BFC Daugavpils
Vllaznia Shkodër
1
0
W
H2H away: BFC Daugavpils
02.08.25
H2H
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
01.06.25
H2H
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
4
1
L
23.09.23
H2H
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
W
14.05.23
H2H
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
0
4
W
20.08.22
H2H
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
L
19.04.22
H2H
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 21 2 2 62:17 45 65
W W W D W
2 25 20 4 1 76:21 55 64
W W W W W
3 24 14 4 6 39:26 13 46
W W D L D
4 26 10 6 10 33:31 2 36
W W L W W
5 25 10 4 11 33:37 -4 34
W L W L W
6 24 8 3 13 26:37 -11 27
L W L W L
7 26 6 7 13 25:44 -19 25
L L L L L
8 26 4 9 13 18:47 -29 21
L L D L W
9 26 4 8 14 40:51 -11 20
L W L L L
10 25 3 5 17 24:65 -41 14
L D L W L