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ENGLAND › LEAGUE ONE
10.10.2026 14:00
SPORTA Arena

Stevenage vs Wigan Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 81.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
81.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Stevenage Win 81.4%
Draw 5.7%
Wigan Win 13%
Expected Goals (xG)
Stevenage1.33
Wigan0.96
Recent Form (Last 5)
Stevenage Stevenage
WWDLW
13 GF / 13 GA
Wigan Wigan
WLDWL
9 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
1.18
Average Goals Scored
0.82
1.18
Average Goals Conceded
1.55
5
BTTS Yes
3
5
Over 2.5
5
3.86
Shots on Goal
3.14

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Stevenage Stevenage 11 matches
Wigan Wigan 11 matches
Stevenage Statistic Wigan
4 Wins 2
4 Draws 2
3 Losses 7
13 Goals For 9
13 Goals Against 17
1.18 Avg Goals Scored 0.82
1.18 Avg Goals Conceded 1.55
5 BTTS Yes 3
6 Over 1.5 7
5 Over 2.5 5
3 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 7
3.86 Shots On Goal 3.14
10.43 Total Shots 14.71
4.14 Corners 5.71
43.7% Ball Possession 53.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Stevenage's more proactive style and Wigan's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Wigan. Wigan arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Stevenage arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 13 with 9 points compared to Wigan in 24 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Wigan having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Stevenage Analysis

From their first 7 matches, Stevenage have collected 9 points and now occupy 13 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, while the 11:8 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on D. Kemp (3 goals), J. Magennis (2 goals), O. Sanderson (2 goals), with creative support from P. Patterson (2 assists), D. Kemp (1 assists), J. Roberts (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Wigan Analysis

With 4 points from 7 games and a place of 24, Wigan still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 1 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 5:12 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on J. Weir (2 goals), M. Power (1 goals), with creative support from M. Power (1 assists), B. Burrows (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Stevenage won 3 times, Wigan won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:4 from Stevenage's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.3%)
Predicted formations: Stevenage - / Wigan 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Stevenage wins 3, draws 2, Wigan wins 1

Standings

League One
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 5 1 3 16:11 5 16
W L W W W
2 8 5 1 2 8:5 3 16
D W W W L
3 8 4 3 1 14:7 7 15
W L D D W
4 7 4 2 1 13:6 7 14
D D W W W
5 8 4 1 3 17:10 7 13
W D L W L
6 8 3 4 1 13:11 2 13
D D W D W
7 8 3 3 2 17:10 7 12
D D W L W
8 9 3 3 3 14:15 -1 12
L W D L D
9 8 3 3 2 6:8 -2 12
D D W W L
10 6 3 2 1 13:7 6 11
D W W L W
11 8 3 1 4 13:11 2 10
L W L D W
12 8 2 4 2 13:16 -3 10
D W W D L
13 7 2 3 2 11:8 3 9
L W W D D
14 7 2 3 2 9:11 -2 9
D W L W D
15 7 2 2 3 13:13 0 8
L D L L W
16 7 2 2 3 12:14 -2 8
L L D W L
17 7 2 2 3 10:13 -3 8
D D L L W
18 7 2 2 3 7:12 -5 8
D L L W W
19 7 2 2 3 8:18 -10 8
W D L L L
20 7 1 4 2 7:9 -2 7
L L D D W
21 7 1 3 3 8:9 -1 6
W L L D D
22 7 0 6 1 8:10 -2 6
D D D L D
23 8 1 2 5 4:13 -9 5
L L D L D
24
Wigan Away
7 1 1 5 5:12 -7 4
L D L W L
Promotion - Championship
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two