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ENGLAND › LEAGUE ONE
09.05.2026 14:00
Lamex Stadium
Referee: C. Breakspear
Stevenage
Match Timeline
Stockport County
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
53'
Adama Sidibeh
Stockport County
🟨
58'
Jordan Roberts
Stevenage
🟨
63'
Carl Piergianni
Stevenage
🔄
72'
H. White ↔ J. Houghton
Stevenage
🔄
72'
M. Phillips ↔ P. Patterson
Stevenage
🔄
72'
L. Thompson ↔ D. Phillips
Stevenage
🔄
76'
L. Barry ↔ J. Diamond
Stockport County
🔄
76'
A. Sidibeh ↔ T. Olaofe
Stockport County
🔄
89'
S. Earley ↔ D. Butler
Stevenage
🔄
90+1'
J. Stokes ↔ B. Andresson
Stockport County
⚽
90'
B. Osborn
Stockport County

Stevenage vs Stockport County Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 52.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 86.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
52.2%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
86.7%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Stevenage Win 52.2%
Draw 0%
Stockport County Win 47.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Stevenage1.12
Stockport County1.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
Stevenage Stevenage
WWDLW
49 GF / 47 GA
Stockport County Stockport County
WLDWL
74 GF / 59 GA
Key Stats
1.04
Average Goals Scored
1.54
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.23
21
BTTS Yes
29
17
Over 2.5
29
3.57
Shots on Goal
4.68

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Stevenage Stevenage 47 matches
Stockport County Stockport County 48 matches
Stevenage Statistic Stockport County
21 Wins 23
12 Draws 12
14 Losses 13
49 Goals For 74
47 Goals Against 59
1.04 Avg Goals Scored 1.54
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.23
21 BTTS Yes 29
24 Over 1.5 38
17 Over 2.5 29
9 Over 3.5 12
19 Clean Sheets 13
12 Failed To Score 9
3.57 Shots On Goal 4.68
9.93 Total Shots 12.98
4.39 Corners 5.09
45% Ball Possession 54.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Stevenage hold an advantage after winning the first leg 2-1, so Stockport County now have a 1-goal deficit to overturn. In the previous meeting, Stockport County controlled more possession in the first leg (70% against 30%). Stevenage were also more accurate in attack, recording 7 shots on target to 5. Stockport County circulated the ball more often, making 511 passes to 220 and completing 402. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Stockport County. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Stevenage expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Stockport County in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Stockport County having the stronger overall control.

Stevenage Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Stevenage arrive from a league campaign that has them 6 with 75 points after 46 matches. With 21 wins, 12 draws, and 13 losses plus a goal ratio of 49:46, they bring mixed form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on J. Reid (14 goals), Daniel Kemp (7 goals), C. Campbell (4 goals), with creative support from H. White (7 assists), Daniel Kemp (4 assists), J. Reid (3 assists), while defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 14 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses, which supports a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

Stockport County Analysis

Stockport County come into this tie placed 3 in their league with 77 points from 46 matches. Their record of 22 wins, 11 draws, and 13 defeats with goals at 71:58 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on K. Wootton (20 goals), O. Norwood (8 goals), N. Lowe (7 goals), with creative support from O. Norwood (11 assists), Jack Diamond (7 assists), B. Osborn (5 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 9 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, which supports a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Stevenage won 4 times, Stockport County won 4 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:12 from Stevenage's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.63 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Stevenage 4-4-2 / Stockport County 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Stevenage wins 4, draws 0, Stockport County wins 4

Standings

League One: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 31 10 5 89:41 48 103
W W W D W
2 46 27 10 9 90:50 40 91
L W W W D
3 46 22 11 13 71:58 13 77
W L W L D
4 46 22 11 13 58:51 7 77
W D D D L
5 46 19 18 9 70:52 18 75
L D D W L
6 46 21 12 13 49:46 3 75
W D W D L
7 46 21 11 14 68:56 12 74
W W W D W
8 46 22 7 17 75:63 12 73
W W D W D
9 46 18 13 15 74:64 10 67
W L D D D
10 46 16 17 13 62:50 12 65
W D W W D
11 46 17 12 17 69:58 11 63
W L L D L
12 46 16 15 15 64:60 4 63
L D L L L
13 46 17 9 20 54:65 -11 60
W W W W L
14 46 17 9 20 50:69 -19 60
W D L W W
15 46 15 14 17 68:73 -5 59
L W L L D
16 46 14 14 18 49:58 -9 56
L L D W W
17 46 13 15 18 50:60 -10 54
D D D W D
18 46 15 8 23 64:68 -4 53
L D L D L
19 46 15 8 23 51:72 -21 53
L W L L L
20 46 14 10 22 59:71 -12 52
D L L D L
21 46 12 13 21 52:61 -9 49
L D D D W
22 46 10 12 24 36:61 -25 42
L W L L D
23 46 10 11 25 41:71 -30 41
L D L W L
24 46 9 8 29 39:74 -35 35
L L L L L
Promotion - Championship
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two