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11.10.2026 11:30
Maurice Dufrasnestadion

Standard Liege vs Charleroi Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 60.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
60.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Standard Liege Win 34.8%
Draw 4.9%
Charleroi Win 60.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Standard Liege1.78
Charleroi1.78
Recent Form (Last 5)
Standard Liege Standard Liege
WWDLW
30 GF / 23 GA
Charleroi Charleroi
WLDWL
26 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.88
Average Goals Scored
2
1.44
Average Goals Conceded
1.62
7
BTTS Yes
10
10
Over 2.5
10
5.43
Shots on Goal
5.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Standard Liege Standard Liege 16 matches
Charleroi Charleroi 13 matches
Standard Liege Statistic Charleroi
8 Wins 7
2 Draws 2
6 Losses 4
30 Goals For 26
23 Goals Against 21
1.88 Avg Goals Scored 2
1.44 Avg Goals Conceded 1.62
7 BTTS Yes 10
13 Over 1.5 11
10 Over 2.5 10
6 Over 3.5 9
5 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 0
5.43 Shots On Goal 5.86
14 Total Shots 18
6.14 Corners 5.29
53.1% Ball Possession 56.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Charleroi. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Standard Liege expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Charleroi in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Charleroi having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Charleroi carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 18 points while Standard Liege sit 7 on 11, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Charleroi look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

Standard Liege Analysis

Standard Liege sit 7 with 11 points after 7 league matches. The record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 13:12 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through D. Eckert Ayensa (4 goals), A. Abid (3 goals), C. Nielsen (2 goals), with creative support from C. Nielsen (3 assists), A. Abid (2 assists), D. Eckert Ayensa (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Charleroi Analysis

Charleroi come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 18 points after 7 matches. The return of 6 wins, 0 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 15:7, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through A. Scheidler (3 goals), F. Situmona Mbemba (3 goals), K. Van Den Kerkhof (2 goals), with creative support from J. Romsaas (3 assists), K. Van Den Kerkhof (2 assists), P. Pflücke (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, the split of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Standard Liege won 6 times, Charleroi won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:17 from Standard Liege's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.1%)
Predicted formations: Standard Liege 4-3-3 / Charleroi 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Standard Liege wins 6, draws 4, Charleroi wins 5

Standings

Pro League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 6 1 0 21:3 18 19
W W W W W
2 7 6 1 0 13:4 9 19
W D W W W
3 7 6 0 1 15:3 12 18
W W W L W
4 7 6 0 1 15:7 8 18
W W L W W
5 7 4 1 2 7:5 2 13
W W D W L
6 7 3 2 2 10:7 3 11
L L W D W
7 7 3 2 2 13:12 1 11
L L W W W
8 7 3 1 3 15:16 -1 10
W W W D L
9 7 3 0 4 7:11 -4 9
L W W L L
10 7 2 3 2 13:12 1 9
L D D W D
11 7 2 2 3 12:12 0 8
L L W L W
12 7 2 2 3 6:8 -2 8
D L L W W
13 7 2 1 4 11:15 -4 7
L L L L D
14 7 1 1 5 7:14 -7 4
L W L D L
15 7 1 1 5 5:13 -8 4
W D L L L
16 7 1 0 6 2:15 -13 3
W L L L L
17 7 0 3 4 8:14 -6 3
L D L L L
18 7 0 3 4 5:14 -9 3
D L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Challenger Pro League