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SENEGAL › LIGUE 1
26.04.2026 17:00

Stade de Mbour vs Ouakam Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 53.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 63.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 98.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
53.5%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
63.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
98.5%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Stade de Mbour Win 14.9%
Draw 31.6%
Ouakam Win 53.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Stade de Mbour0.54
Ouakam0.67
Recent Form (Last 5)
Stade de Mbour Stade de Mbour
WWDLW
14 GF / 16 GA
Ouakam Ouakam
WLDWL
15 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
0.61
Average Goals Scored
0.65
0.7
Average Goals Conceded
0.43
7
BTTS Yes
7
3
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Stade de Mbour Stade de Mbour 23 matches
Ouakam Ouakam 23 matches
Stade de Mbour Statistic Ouakam
3 Wins 6
15 Draws 14
5 Losses 3
14 Goals For 15
16 Goals Against 10
0.61 Avg Goals Scored 0.65
0.7 Avg Goals Conceded 0.43
7 BTTS Yes 7
11 Over 1.5 8
3 Over 2.5 3
2 Over 3.5 0
12 Clean Sheets 14
13 Failed To Score 11
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Ouakam's more proactive style and Stade de Mbour's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Ouakam. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Ouakam having the stronger overall control.

Stade de Mbour Analysis

Stade de Mbour sit 11 with 24 points after 23 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 15 draws, and 5 losses, while the 13:15 goal ratio supports the view of poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 8 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Ouakam Analysis

Ouakam sit 6 with 32 points after 23 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 14 draws, and 3 losses, while the 14:10 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 9 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Stade de Mbour won 0 times, Ouakam won 2 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:7 from Stade de Mbour's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.38 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (85.1%)
H2H summary: Stade de Mbour wins 0, draws 6, Ouakam wins 2

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 13 15 2 21:6 15 54
?
2 30 15 9 6 27:19 8 54
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3 30 13 9 8 37:22 15 48
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4 30 11 15 4 29:14 15 48
?
5 30 10 14 6 29:24 5 44
?
6 30 8 18 4 23:16 7 42
?
7 30 9 14 7 21:16 5 41
?
8 30 7 19 4 29:20 9 40
?
9 30 7 13 10 20:19 1 34
?
10 30 5 18 7 18:21 -3 33
?
11 30 5 18 7 18:24 -6 33
?
12 30 5 16 9 24:37 -13 31
?
13 30 7 8 15 29:34 -5 28
?
14 30 3 16 11 22:36 -14 25
?
15 30 4 13 13 18:39 -21 25
?
16 30 3 15 12 16:34 -18 24
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Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Relegation