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SENEGAL › LIGUE 1
22.05.2026 17:00

Stade de Mbour vs Guédiawaye Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 78.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 55.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 77.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
78.6%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
55.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
77.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Stade de Mbour Win 41.4%
Draw 21.4%
Guédiawaye Win 37.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Stade de Mbour0.86
Guédiawaye0.85
Recent Form (Last 5)
Stade de Mbour Stade de Mbour
WWDLW
18 GF / 19 GA
Guédiawaye Guédiawaye
WLDWL
27 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
0.64
Average Goals Scored
0.96
0.68
Average Goals Conceded
1.18
8
BTTS Yes
13
3
Over 2.5
12
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Stade de Mbour Stade de Mbour 28 matches
Guédiawaye Guédiawaye 28 matches
Stade de Mbour Statistic Guédiawaye
5 Wins 6
17 Draws 8
6 Losses 14
18 Goals For 27
19 Goals Against 33
0.64 Avg Goals Scored 0.96
0.68 Avg Goals Conceded 1.18
8 BTTS Yes 13
14 Over 1.5 19
3 Over 2.5 12
2 Over 3.5 4
15 Clean Sheets 8
15 Failed To Score 11
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Guédiawaye. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Guédiawaye having the stronger overall control. Guédiawaye arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Stade de Mbour Analysis

From their first 28 matches, Stade de Mbour have collected 32 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Their overall return of 5 wins, 17 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 18:19 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 1 wins, 10 draws, and 3 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Guédiawaye Analysis

Guédiawaye approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 13 with 25 points from 28 matches. The overall return of 6 wins, 8 draws, and 14 defeats with a 27:33 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Stade de Mbour won 3 times, Guédiawaye won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:9 from Stade de Mbour's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.8 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78.6%)
H2H summary: Stade de Mbour wins 3, draws 4, Guédiawaye wins 3

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 13 15 2 21:6 15 54
?
2 30 15 9 6 27:19 8 54
?
3 30 13 9 8 37:22 15 48
?
4 30 11 15 4 29:14 15 48
?
5 30 10 14 6 29:24 5 44
?
6 30 8 18 4 23:16 7 42
?
7 30 9 14 7 21:16 5 41
?
8 30 7 19 4 29:20 9 40
?
9 30 7 13 10 20:19 1 34
?
10 30 5 18 7 18:21 -3 33
?
11 30 5 18 7 18:24 -6 33
?
12 30 5 16 9 24:37 -13 31
?
13 30 7 8 15 29:34 -5 28
?
14 30 3 16 11 22:36 -14 25
?
15 30 4 13 13 18:39 -21 25
?
16 30 3 15 12 16:34 -18 24
?
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Relegation