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IRELAND › PREMIER DIVISION
16.10.2026 18:45
Richmond Park

St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
58.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
St Patrick's Athl. Win 54.3%
Draw 17.8%
Shelbourne Win 27.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
St Patrick's Athl.1.57
Shelbourne1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl.
WWDLW
58 GF / 30 GA
Shelbourne Shelbourne
WLDWL
63 GF / 59 GA
Key Stats
1.66
Average Goals Scored
1.54
0.86
Average Goals Conceded
1.44
14
BTTS Yes
31
13
Over 2.5
27
5.34
Shots on Goal
3.64

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl. 35 matches
Shelbourne Shelbourne 41 matches
St Patrick's Athl. Statistic Shelbourne
18 Wins 13
9 Draws 16
8 Losses 12
58 Goals For 63
30 Goals Against 59
1.66 Avg Goals Scored 1.54
0.86 Avg Goals Conceded 1.44
14 BTTS Yes 31
27 Over 1.5 33
13 Over 2.5 27
10 Over 3.5 14
14 Clean Sheets 7
10 Failed To Score 7
5.34 Shots On Goal 3.64
15.88 Total Shots 12.28
5.38 Corners 4.61
52.6% Ball Possession 47.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by St Patrick's Athl.'s more proactive style and Shelbourne's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. St Patrick's Athl. come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. St Patrick's Athl. arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 59 points compared to Shelbourne in 6 on 40, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Shelbourne. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with St Patrick's Athl. expected to line up in 3-1-4-2 and Shelbourne in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Shelbourne having the stronger overall control.

St Patrick's Athl. Analysis

St Patrick's Athl. come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 59 points after 32 matches. They have recorded 17 wins, 8 draws, and 7 losses, with a 52:25 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on A. Keena (7 goals), R. Edmondson (5 goals), Kian Leavy (4 goals), with creative support from Z. Elbouzedi (4 assists), L. Turner (3 assists), A. Keena (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split of 10 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Shelbourne Analysis

Shelbourne sit 6 with 40 points after 32 league matches. The record of 9 wins, 13 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 42:45 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through D. Kelly (4 goals), Harry Wood (3 goals), J. Martin (2 goals), with creative support from Harry Wood (5 assists), D. Kelly (1 assists), J. Martin (1 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 6 wins, 8 draws, and 2 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, St Patrick's Athl. won 6 times, Shelbourne won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:16 from St Patrick's Athl.'s perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.2%)
Predicted formations: St Patrick's Athl. 3-1-4-2 / Shelbourne 3-4-3
H2H summary: St Patrick's Athl. wins 6, draws 2, Shelbourne wins 7

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 18 8 6 52:32 20 62
W W L D D
2 32 17 8 7 52:25 27 59
W W W L W
3 32 17 8 7 57:38 19 59
W W W W W
4 32 9 14 9 45:42 3 41
W D W D L
5 33 10 11 12 50:55 -5 41
L L L D W
6 32 9 13 10 42:45 -3 40
D W L L D
7 32 9 11 12 42:48 -6 38
D L W L D
8 32 7 13 12 44:54 -10 34
L D D W D
9 33 8 10 15 39:54 -15 34
L L W W L
10 32 5 8 19 24:54 -30 23
L L L L D
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation