06.10.2026 20:00
Estadio Ameliano Villeta
Referee: Blas Romero

Sportivo Ameliano vs Rubio NU Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71.3%
Odds 2.21
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 2.06
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71.3%
2.21 ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.83 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
2.06 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90%
1.35 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.75 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Sportivo Ameliano Win 71.3%
Draw 10.6%
Rubio NU Win 18.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sportivo Ameliano1.3
Rubio NU0.89
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano
WWDLW
41 GF / 34 GA
Rubio NU Rubio NU
WLDWL
28 GF / 49 GA
Key Stats
1.21
Average Goals Scored
0.82
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.44
22
BTTS Yes
11
12
Over 2.5
12
3.76
Shots on Goal
3.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano 34 matches
Rubio NU Rubio NU 34 matches
Sportivo Ameliano Statistic Rubio NU
12 Wins 8
15 Draws 8
7 Losses 18
41 Goals For 28
34 Goals Against 49
1.21 Avg Goals Scored 0.82
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.44
22 BTTS Yes 11
25 Over 1.5 21
12 Over 2.5 12
4 Over 3.5 9
7 Clean Sheets 9
6 Failed To Score 17
3.76 Shots On Goal 3.38
11.94 Total Shots 11.29
4.03 Corners 3.85
50.6% Ball Possession 42.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Sportivo Ameliano's more proactive style and Rubio NU's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sportivo Ameliano expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Rubio NU in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Rubio NU having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Rubio NU. Rubio NU arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Sportivo Ameliano arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 7 with 18 points compared to Rubio NU in 10 on 9, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Sportivo Ameliano Analysis

Sportivo Ameliano sit 7 with 18 points after 12 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses, while the 14:13 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on C. Ocampos (4 goals), E. Moreira (3 goals), R. Peralta (1 goals), with creative support from E. Torales (2 assists), C. Ocampos (1 assists), J. González (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Rubio NU Analysis

Rubio NU approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 9 points from 12 matches. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 3 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 13:23 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on J. Vallejos (2 goals), W. Mendieta (1 goals), R. Ruiz Díaz (1 goals), with creative support from W. Mendieta (2 assists), J. Vallejos (1 assists), R. Rojas (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Sportivo Ameliano won 3 times, Rubio NU won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:4 from Sportivo Ameliano's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.4%)
Predicted formations: Sportivo Ameliano 4-1-4-1 / Rubio NU 5-3-2
H2H summary: Sportivo Ameliano wins 3, draws 2, Rubio NU wins 0

Standings

Primera Division: Clausura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 13 8 2 3 21:14 7 26
W L D W W
2 12 8 1 3 21:9 12 25
W W W W D
3 13 7 2 4 23:13 10 23
W W L W L
4 12 6 4 2 19:7 12 22
D W W L W
5 12 6 4 2 14:13 1 22
D L L W D
6 13 5 6 2 14:10 4 21
D W W D W
7 12 4 6 2 14:13 1 18
D D W W L
8 12 5 2 5 15:12 3 17
L W D W W
9 13 4 1 8 14:24 -10 13
L L W L L
10 12 2 3 7 13:23 -10 9
D L L L W
11 13 2 2 9 14:26 -12 8
L D L L L
12 13 0 3 10 4:22 -18 3
D D L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)