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03.05.2026 16:00
Estadio Alberto Gallardo
Referee: Sebastian Lozano, Peru
Sporting Cristal
Match Timeline
Cusco
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
8'
Gustavo Cazonatti · Assist: Juan Cruz Gonzalez
Sporting Cristal
⚽
15'
Joel Herrera · Assist: Iván Colman
Cusco
⚽
22'
Lucas Colitto
Cusco
🟨
35'
Felipe Vizeu
Sporting Cristal
⚽
39'
Felipe Vizeu · Assist: Gabriel Santana
Sporting Cristal
🟨
40'
Joel Herrera
Cusco
🔄
46'
Julinho Astudillo ↔ José Zevallos
Cusco
🔄
58'
Fabrizio Lora ↔ Cristiano
Sporting Cristal
🔄
58'
Cristian Benavente ↔ Maxloren Castro
Sporting Cristal
🔄
58'
Joao Cuenca ↔ Santiago González
Sporting Cristal
🔄
72'
Joel Herrera ↔ José Miguel Manzaneda
Cusco
🔄
72'
Lucas Colitto ↔ Nicolás Silva
Cusco
🔄
73'
Gabriel Santana ↔ Catriel Cabellos
Sporting Cristal
🔄
77'
Iván Colman ↔ Diego Soto
Cusco
🟨
80'
Juan Cruz Gonzalez
Sporting Cristal
🔄
80'
Gabriel Carabajal ↔ Facundo Callejo
Cusco
🔄
83'
Ian Wisdom ↔ Martín Távara
Sporting Cristal
🟨
90+6'
José Zevallos
Cusco

Sporting Cristal vs Cusco Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.1%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
69.4%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Sporting Cristal Win 65.1%
Draw 0%
Cusco Win 34.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sporting Cristal1.55
Cusco1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal
WWDLW
31 GF / 27 GA
Cusco Cusco
WLDWL
17 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.55
Average Goals Scored
1.06
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
1.56
13
BTTS Yes
9
13
Over 2.5
8
4.32
Shots on Goal
3.93

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 20 matches
Cusco Cusco 16 matches
Sporting Cristal Statistic Cusco
8 Wins 6
4 Draws 2
8 Losses 8
31 Goals For 17
27 Goals Against 25
1.55 Avg Goals Scored 1.06
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 1.56
13 BTTS Yes 9
16 Over 1.5 11
13 Over 2.5 8
7 Over 3.5 3
6 Clean Sheets 2
2 Failed To Score 5
4.32 Shots On Goal 3.93
14.26 Total Shots 11.33
5.26 Corners 3.2
59.5% Ball Possession 56.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Cusco. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sporting Cristal expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Cusco in 4-4-1-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cusco having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Cusco look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

Sporting Cristal Analysis

Sporting Cristal approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 11 with 14 points from 12 matches. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 2 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 20:20 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on Felipe Vizeu (4 goals), L. Iberico (4 goals), I. Avila (2 goals), with creative support from Y. Yotun (5 assists), I. Avila (3 assists), S. Gonzalez (2 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cusco Analysis

Cusco are currently 6 in the standings with 19 points from 12 matches. The record of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 15:19 goal balance, points toward very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking threat comes through Facundo Callejo (8 goals), G. Carabajal (2 goals), Iván Colman (2 goals), with creative support from J. Manzaneda (4 assists), M. Ruidias (2 assists), J. Bolivar (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Sporting Cristal won 8 times, Cusco won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:20 from Sporting Cristal's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.46 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Sporting Cristal 4-2-3-1 / Cusco 4-4-1-1
H2H summary: Sporting Cristal wins 8, draws 2, Cusco wins 3

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 17 8 3 46:19 27 59
W W L D L
2 28 14 8 6 45:33 12 50
D L W D W
3 28 14 6 8 39:25 14 48
L W L W W
4 28 13 8 7 47:31 16 47
D D W W L
5
Cusco Away
28 14 3 11 41:40 1 45
L W L W W
6 28 13 5 10 48:40 8 44
W D L W L
7 28 12 7 9 43:36 7 43
W W L W W
8 28 12 7 9 36:45 -9 43
D D L L L
9 28 12 5 11 49:40 9 41
W W W W L
10 28 10 8 10 30:29 1 38
L D W L W
11 28 11 5 12 38:44 -6 38
W W W W W
12 28 9 8 11 43:53 -10 35
D W W D W
13 28 9 6 13 26:31 -5 33
D L W L W
14 28 7 10 11 36:39 -3 31
D L L D L
15 28 7 7 14 41:52 -11 28
D L W L W
16 28 6 8 14 29:42 -13 26
D W L L L
17 28 6 7 15 24:43 -19 25
L L L L L
18 28 4 8 16 32:51 -19 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2