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MACEDONIA › FIRST LEAGUE
09.10.2026 15:00

Skopje vs Vardar Skopje Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 68.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
68.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Skopje Win 31.9%
Draw 18.1%
Vardar Skopje Win 50%
Expected Goals (xG)
Skopje1.06
Vardar Skopje1.49
Recent Form (Last 5)
Skopje Skopje
WWDLW
5 GF / 13 GA
Vardar Skopje Vardar Skopje
WLDWL
32 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
0.56
Average Goals Scored
1.52
1.44
Average Goals Conceded
1.81
4
BTTS Yes
11
4
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Skopje Skopje 9 matches
Vardar Skopje Vardar Skopje 21 matches
Skopje Statistic Vardar Skopje
1 Wins 7
3 Draws 5
5 Losses 9
5 Goals For 32
13 Goals Against 38
0.56 Avg Goals Scored 1.52
1.44 Avg Goals Conceded 1.81
4 BTTS Yes 11
6 Over 1.5 18
4 Over 2.5 10
0 Over 3.5 8
1 Clean Sheets 4
5 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Vardar Skopje's more proactive style and Skopje's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Vardar Skopje. Skopje have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Vardar Skopje having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Vardar Skopje carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 14 points while Skopje sit 10 on 3, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Skopje Analysis

Skopje approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 3 points from 8 matches. Across the season they have posted 0 wins, 3 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 3:12 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Vardar Skopje Analysis

Vardar Skopje come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 14 points after 8 matches. With 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 14:8, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Skopje won 3 times, Vardar Skopje won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:7 from Skopje's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.9%)
H2H summary: Skopje wins 3, draws 3, Vardar Skopje wins 2

Standings

First League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 6 1 1 20:8 12 19
W D L W W
2 8 5 2 1 19:5 14 17
W D W W L
3 8 4 2 2 14:8 6 14
W D W D W
4 8 3 4 1 17:7 10 13
D D W D D
5 8 4 1 3 6:9 -3 13
L W W W L
6 8 3 1 4 11:13 -2 10
W D L L W
7 8 2 3 3 13:10 3 9
D D L L L
8 8 2 2 4 6:19 -13 8
L D L D W
9 8 1 1 6 7:25 -18 4
L D W L L
10 8 0 3 5 3:12 -9 3
L L L D D
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
1. MFL (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. MFL