BULGARIA FIRST LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Stadion Dragalevtsi
Referee: M. Velikov
Septemvri Sofia
Match Timeline
Montana
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
F. Herard ↔ S. Stojanovic
Septemvri Sofia
🟨
49'
Valentine Ozornwafor
Septemvri Sofia
🟨
51'
Yoan Baurenski
Septemvri Sofia
🟨
57'
Ivaylo Markov
Montana
58'
N. Fontaine
Septemvri Sofia
🔄
64'
G. Ivanov ↔ S. Stoichkov
Septemvri Sofia
🔄
66'
T. Azevedo ↔ Beji
Montana
🔄
76'
M. Stamatov ↔ S. Wade
Septemvri Sofia
🔄
80'
N. Fontaine ↔ D. Ivkic
Septemvri Sofia
🔄
81'
A. Todorov ↔ Vitinho
Montana
82'
B. Dimitrov
Montana

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 62.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 79.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
62.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
79.6%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
88.9%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Septemvri Sofia Win 88.6%
Draw 0%
Montana Win 11.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Septemvri Sofia1.08
Montana1.07
Recent Form (Last 5)
Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia
WWDLW
26 GF / 59 GA
Montana Montana
WLDWL
16 GF / 45 GA
Key Stats
0.84
Average Goals Scored
0.52
1.9
Average Goals Conceded
1.45
14
BTTS Yes
11
17
Over 2.5
12
2.5
Shots on Goal
2.07

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia 31 matches
Montana Montana 31 matches
Septemvri Sofia Statistic Montana
7 Wins 4
6 Draws 8
18 Losses 19
26 Goals For 16
59 Goals Against 45
0.84 Avg Goals Scored 0.52
1.9 Avg Goals Conceded 1.45
14 BTTS Yes 11
23 Over 1.5 16
17 Over 2.5 12
9 Over 3.5 4
7 Clean Sheets 9
13 Failed To Score 16
2.5 Shots On Goal 2.07
6.71 Total Shots 7.14
2.61 Corners 3.14
35.5% Ball Possession 36.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Montana arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Montana. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Septemvri Sofia expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Montana in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Montana having the stronger overall control.

Septemvri Sofia Analysis

Septemvri Sofia are currently 12 in the standings with 27 points from 31 matches. The record of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 18 defeats, together with a 26:59 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through B. Fourrier (12 goals), N. Fontaine (4 goals), Valentine Ozornwafor (2 goals), with creative support from Galin Ivanov (4 assists), Robin Schouten (4 assists), Kleri Serber (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Montana Analysis

Montana approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 20 points from 31 matches. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 8 draws, and 19 defeats, and the 16:45 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on B. Dimitrov (7 goals), P. Ejike (5 goals), I. Kokonov (1 goals), with creative support from Solomon James (2 assists), B. Dimitrov (1 assists), I. Kokonov (1 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 3 draws, and 11 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Septemvri Sofia won 3 times, Montana won 1 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:4 from Septemvri Sofia's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.38 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Septemvri Sofia 3-5-2 / Montana 5-3-2
H2H summary: Septemvri Sofia wins 3, draws 4, Montana wins 1
Stats
Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia
Montana Montana
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
7
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
3
4 Corner Kicks 8
9 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 1
43% Ball Possession 57%
7 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Goal 7
4 Shots off Goal 2
1 Blocked Shots 3
3 Shots insidebox 6
4 Shots outsidebox 7
6 Goalkeeper Saves 1
367 Total passes 509
285 Passes accurate 421
0.77 expected_goals 1.29
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Septemvri Sofia
Formation
Montana
Y. Georgiev
Y. Georgiev
K. Onasci
K. Onasci
M. Hristov
M. Hristov
V. Ozornwafor
V. Ozornwafor
M. Stamatov
M. Stamatov
A. Abou
A. Abou
Y. Baurenski
Y. Baurenski
F. Herard
F. Herard
G. Ivanov
G. Ivanov
N. Fontaine
N. Fontaine
E. Ribeiro
E. Ribeiro
M. Rosa
M. Rosa
J. Soares
J. Soares
I. Markov
I. Markov
K. Iliev
K. Iliev
D. Carmona Sierra
D. Carmona Sierra
T. Azevedo
T. Azevedo
A. Tsingaras
A. Tsingaras
D. Burov
D. Burov
U. Balde
U. Balde
B. Dimitrov
B. Dimitrov
A. Todorov
A. Todorov
Septemvri Sofia 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
21
Y. Georgiev
G
13
K. Onasci
D
4
M. Hristov
D
26
V. Ozornwafor
🟨 49'
D
30
M. Stamatov
↓ 76'
D
18
A. Abou
M
5
Y. Baurenski
🟨 51'
M
29
F. Herard
↓ 46'
M
33
G. Ivanov
↓ 64'
M
17
N. Fontaine
⚽ 58' ↓ 80'
M
7
E. Ribeiro
F
Substitutes
12
N. Krastev
G
28
S. Stoichkov
↑ 64'
M
22
P. Georgiev
M
8
K. Kolev
M
27
G. Varbanov
D
10
S. Stojanovic
↑ 46'
M
3
S. Wade
↑ 76'
D
23
R. Schouten
D
19
D. Ivkic
↑ 80'
D
Montana 3-4-3
Starting XI
1
M. Rosa
G
13
J. Soares
D
5
I. Markov
18
K. Iliev
16
D. Carmona Sierra
27
T. Azevedo
↓ 66'
M
24
A. Tsingaras
M
14
D. Burov
M
20
U. Balde
F
7
B. Dimitrov
⚽ 82'
F
10
A. Todorov
↓ 81'
F
Substitutes
30
V. Simeonov
G
23
A. Tungarov
M
11
Vitinho
↑ 81'
M
22
Beji
↑ 66'
17
I. Kokonov
M
8
P. Atanasov
M
26
R. Slavchev
F
25
S. James
D
9
P. Ejike
F
Last matches: Septemvri Sofia
27.06.26
Fri
Septemvri Sofia
Marek
3
0
W
28.05.26
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
Yantra 2019
2
1
W
22.05.26
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
Dobrudzha
1
1
D
18.05.26
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
Beroe
1
0
W
14.05.26
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
Spartak Varna
1
0
W
10.05.26
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
Botev Vratsa
1
1
D
06.05.26
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
Slavia Sofia
1
2
L
27.04.26
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
Lokomotiv Sofia
1
1
D
16.04.26
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
Spartak Varna
0
0
D
10.04.26
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
Slavia Sofia
2
1
W
06.04.26
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
Botev Vratsa
0
0
D
21.03.26
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
Arda Kardzhali
1
4
L
17.03.26
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
Lokomotiv Sofia
0
3
L
13.03.26
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0
1
L
07.03.26
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
Cherno More Varna
0
3
L
03.03.26
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
0
2
L
28.02.26
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
CSKA Sofia
2
0
W
16.02.26
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
Montana
1
0
W
08.02.26
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
Dobrudzha
0
3
L
26.01.26
Fri
Septemvri Sofia
Ordabasy
1
2
L
Last matches: Montana
22.05.26
Fir
Montana
Slavia Sofia
0
2
L
18.05.26
Fir
Montana
Spartak Varna
0
2
L
14.05.26
Fir
Montana
Botev Vratsa
0
1
L
09.05.26
Fir
Montana
Lokomotiv Sofia
2
2
D
05.05.26
Fir
Montana
Beroe
2
2
D
27.04.26
Fir
Montana
Dobrudzha
1
0
W
16.04.26
Fir
Montana
Slavia Sofia
0
0
D
08.04.26
Fir
Montana
CSKA Sofia
0
1
L
04.04.26
Fir
Montana
Arda Kardzhali
1
2
L
22.03.26
Fir
Montana
Beroe
0
1
L
15.03.26
Fir
Montana
Cherno More Varna
0
1
L
09.03.26
Fir
Montana
Ludogorets
0
3
L
03.03.26
Fir
Montana
Spartak Varna
0
1
L
27.02.26
Fir
Montana
Botev Plovdiv
0
0
D
21.02.26
Fir
Montana
Dobrudzha
0
1
L
16.02.26
Fir
Montana
Septemvri Sofia
0
1
L
06.02.26
Fir
Montana
CSKA 1948
0
1
L
29.01.26
Fri
Montana
Leningradets
0
1
L
26.01.26
Fri
Montana
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1
0
W
23.01.26
Fri
Montana
Llapi
2
2
D
H2H: Septemvri Sofia vs Montana
01.05.26
H2H
Septemvri Sofia
Montana
1
1
D
16.02.26
H2H
Septemvri Sofia
Montana
1
0
W
23.08.25
H2H
Montana
Septemvri Sofia
2
0
L
20.05.24
H2H
Montana
Septemvri Sofia
0
2
W
07.11.23
H2H
Septemvri Sofia
Montana
0
0
D
14.05.22
H2H
Septemvri Sofia
Montana
1
1
D
21.11.21
H2H
Montana
Septemvri Sofia
0
0
D
12.05.20
H2H
Septemvri Sofia
Montana
0
0
D
09.11.19
H2H
Montana
Septemvri Sofia
0
2
W
Last matches: Septemvri Sofia
27.06.26
Fri
Septemvri Sofia
Marek
3
0
W
28.05.26
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
Yantra 2019
2
1
W
22.05.26
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
Dobrudzha
1
1
D
14.05.26
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
Spartak Varna
1
0
W
16.04.26
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
Spartak Varna
0
0
D
06.04.26
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
Botev Vratsa
0
0
D
21.03.26
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
Arda Kardzhali
1
4
L
07.03.26
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
Cherno More Varna
0
3
L
28.02.26
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
CSKA Sofia
2
0
W
16.02.26
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
Montana
1
0
W
26.01.26
Fri
Septemvri Sofia
Ordabasy
1
2
L
23.01.26
Fri
Septemvri Sofia
Radnicki NIS
0
4
L
20.01.26
Fri
Septemvri Sofia
Neftchi
0
2
L
14.01.26
Fri
Septemvri Sofia
Marek
1
3
L
03.12.25
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
CSKA 1948
1
4
L
23.11.25
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
Ludogorets
0
2
L
01.11.25
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
Slavia Sofia
0
1
L
03.10.25
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
2
2
D
21.09.25
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
1
3
L
29.08.25
Fir
Septemvri Sofia
Lokomotiv Sofia
1
0
W
H2H at home: Septemvri Sofia
01.05.26
H2H
Septemvri Sofia
Montana
1
1
D
16.02.26
H2H
Septemvri Sofia
Montana
1
0
W
07.11.23
H2H
Septemvri Sofia
Montana
0
0
D
14.05.22
H2H
Septemvri Sofia
Montana
1
1
D
12.05.20
H2H
Septemvri Sofia
Montana
0
0
D
Last matches: Montana
22.05.26
Fir
Montana
Slavia Sofia
0
2
L
14.05.26
Fir
Montana
Botev Vratsa
0
1
L
05.05.26
Fir
Montana
Beroe
2
2
D
04.04.26
Fir
Montana
Arda Kardzhali
1
2
L
15.03.26
Fir
Montana
Cherno More Varna
0
1
L
03.03.26
Fir
Montana
Spartak Varna
0
1
L
21.02.26
Fir
Montana
Dobrudzha
0
1
L
16.02.26
Fir
Montana
Septemvri Sofia
0
1
L
09.12.25
Fir
Montana
Botev Vratsa
0
0
D
28.11.25
Fir
Montana
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0
0
D
09.11.25
Fir
Montana
Slavia Sofia
1
2
L
02.11.25
Fir
Montana
CSKA Sofia
1
3
L
20.10.25
Fir
Montana
Beroe
1
1
D
28.09.25
Fir
Montana
Ludogorets
0
3
L
12.09.25
Fir
Montana
Botev Plovdiv
1
0
W
15.08.25
Fir
Montana
CSKA 1948
1
2
L
03.08.25
Fir
Montana
Lokomotiv Sofia
0
3
L
20.07.25
Fir
Montana
Levski Sofia
0
5
L
H2H away: Montana
01.05.26
H2H
Septemvri Sofia
Montana
1
1
D
16.02.26
H2H
Septemvri Sofia
Montana
1
0
L
07.11.23
H2H
Septemvri Sofia
Montana
0
0
D
14.05.22
H2H
Septemvri Sofia
Montana
1
1
D
12.05.20
H2H
Septemvri Sofia
Montana
0
0
D

Standings

A PFG: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 22 4 4 64:22 42 70
D W D W W
2 30 17 9 4 57:20 37 60
L D W W W
3 30 18 5 7 50:31 19 59
W W L W W
4 30 16 8 6 43:23 20 56
D W W W L
5 30 11 13 6 30:33 -3 46
D D W W W
6 30 11 11 8 33:26 7 44
L D L L W
7 30 12 8 10 33:27 6 44
W L W W W
8 30 11 7 12 40:37 3 40
W D W W L
9 30 10 9 11 36:33 3 39
D L W L D
10 30 9 11 10 24:26 -2 38
W L D L W
11 30 9 10 11 40:39 1 37
L W L L W
12 30 5 12 13 25:50 -25 27
D W L L L
13 30 7 5 18 23:43 -20 26
L L D L L
14 30 7 5 18 25:58 -33 26
D W D L L
15 30 4 11 15 19:44 -25 23
D L L W L
16 30 3 8 19 15:45 -30 17
D L L L L
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