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🇺🇸 USA › MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
02.10.2026 01:30
Lumen Field
Referee: Jair Antonio Maruffo, USA
Seattle Sounders
Match Timeline
Sporting Kansas City
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
44'
Andre Luiz · Assist: S. Afrifa
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
46'
D. Musovski ↔ S. Gomez
Seattle Sounders
⚽
51'
S. Gomez · Assist: J. Morris
Seattle Sounders
🟨
61'
Nouhou Tolo
Seattle Sounders
🔄
63'
S. Hawkins ↔ K. Kossa-Rienzi
Seattle Sounders
🔄
63'
P. Arriola ↔ C. Clark
Seattle Sounders
🔄
76'
S. Afrifa ↔ S. Reid
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
76'
Andre Luiz ↔ S. Suleymanov
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
76'
C. Harris ↔ Z. Bassong
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
79'
L. Johnsen ↔ J. Bartlett
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
89'
P. Kingston ↔ M. Bronnik
Seattle Sounders
⚽
90'
C. Roldan
Seattle Sounders
🔄
90+3'
A. Rusnak ↔ Y. Gomez Andrade
Seattle Sounders
🟨
90+1'
Jacob Bartlett
Sporting Kansas City

Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77.1%
Odds 1.60
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.44
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.35
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77.1%
1.60 ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.44 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.35 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.10 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
7.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Seattle Sounders Win 77.1%
Draw 14.8%
Sporting Kansas City Win 8.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Seattle Sounders1.75
Sporting Kansas City1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Seattle Sounders Seattle Sounders
WWDLW
50 GF / 43 GA
Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City
WLDWL
36 GF / 69 GA
Key Stats
1.47
Average Goals Scored
1.13
1.26
Average Goals Conceded
2.16
19
BTTS Yes
17
18
Over 2.5
22
4.83
Shots on Goal
4.08

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Seattle Sounders Seattle Sounders 34 matches
Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 32 matches
Seattle Sounders Statistic Sporting Kansas City
15 Wins 9
8 Draws 3
11 Losses 20
50 Goals For 36
43 Goals Against 69
1.47 Avg Goals Scored 1.13
1.26 Avg Goals Conceded 2.16
19 BTTS Yes 17
27 Over 1.5 28
18 Over 2.5 22
10 Over 3.5 12
9 Clean Sheets 3
8 Failed To Score 12
4.83 Shots On Goal 4.08
13.1 Total Shots 10.46
4.7 Corners 3.85
50.3% Ball Possession 44.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Sporting Kansas City. Seattle Sounders arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 10 with 32 points compared to Sporting Kansas City in 15 on 18, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Seattle Sounders expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Sporting Kansas City in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sporting Kansas City having the stronger overall control. Sporting Kansas City arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Seattle Sounders Analysis

Seattle Sounders are currently 10 in the standings with 32 points from 25 matches. The record of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 30:33 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Rusnák (3 goals), C. Roldan (3 goals), P. Rothrock (3 goals), with creative support from A. Rusnák (7 assists), J. Morris (3 assists), P. Arriola (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, the record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sporting Kansas City Analysis

Sporting Kansas City approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 18 points from 25 matches. The overall return of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 17 defeats with a 29:63 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on Dejan Joveljić (7 goals), Taylor Calheira (3 goals), André Luiz (3 goals), with creative support from Calvin Harris (3 assists), Manu García (3 assists), Emir Karić (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 10 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Seattle Sounders won 7 times, Sporting Kansas City won 7 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 31:24 from Seattle Sounders's perspective. 12 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 12 matches, with an average of 3.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (91.8%)
Predicted formations: Seattle Sounders 4-2-3-1 / Sporting Kansas City 4-4-2
Missing players: Seattle Sounders 7, Sporting Kansas City 6
H2H summary: Seattle Sounders wins 7, draws 1, Sporting Kansas City wins 7

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 15 5 7 60:29 31 50
L D W L W
2 27 13 8 6 48:36 12 47
W W W D W
3 27 13 8 6 50:42 8 47
W D W W W
4 27 13 6 8 49:39 10 45
W D W W D
5 27 13 5 9 34:32 2 44
L D L W D
6 28 11 8 9 43:30 13 41
L D L W D
7 27 10 8 9 35:35 0 38
W W W D D
8 27 11 3 13 38:38 0 36
L D W D L
9 28 9 9 10 37:44 -7 36
W W D L W
10 27 9 5 13 48:51 -3 32
L L L D W
11 27 9 5 13 40:44 -4 32
W L L L L
12 27 8 8 11 47:47 0 32
D D L L L
13 27 7 10 10 35:47 -12 31
D D W D D
14 27 7 8 12 40:49 -9 29
L L L L L
15 27 6 3 18 32:65 -33 21
L W L W L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)