BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques
Referee: D. Lacerda
Sao Paulo
Match Timeline
Bahia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
-5'
André Silva
Sao Paulo
17'
Artur · Assist: Wendell
Sao Paulo
🟨
41'
Nicolás Acevedo
Bahia
🟨
45'
Damián Bobadilla
Sao Paulo
🔄
50'
Lucas Ramon ↔ C. Soares
Sao Paulo
🔄
56'
C. Olivera ↔ M. Sanabria
Bahia
62'
Luciano Juba · Assist: Everton Ribeiro
Bahia
🔄
63'
Cauly ↔ Lucas Moura
Sao Paulo
🔄
71'
Wendell ↔ E. Diaz
Sao Paulo
🔄
71'
Luciano ↔ Ferreira
Sao Paulo
🔄
71'
Danielzinho ↔ Luan Silva
Sao Paulo
73'
Ferreira · Assist: Jonathan Calleri
Sao Paulo
🟨
81'
Enzo Díaz
Sao Paulo
🔄
82'
Erick Pulga ↔ Ademir
Bahia
🔄
82'
Jean Lucas ↔ Michel Araujo
Bahia
🔄
82'
Willian Jose ↔ Everaldo
Bahia
🔄
82'
Everton Ribeiro ↔ Rodrigo
Bahia
🟨
90+6'
Jonathan Calleri
Sao Paulo
🟨
90+7'
Erick
Bahia
🟨
90+4'
Mateo Sanabria
Bahia
90'
Erick
Bahia

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.4%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
82.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Sao Paulo Win 68.4%
Draw 6.3%
Bahia Win 25.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sao Paulo1.24
Bahia1.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
WWDLW
17 GF / 11 GA
Bahia Bahia
WLDWL
19 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
1.31
Average Goals Scored
1.36
0.85
Average Goals Conceded
1.14
6
BTTS Yes
8
4
Over 2.5
7
3.62
Shots on Goal
4.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 13 matches
Bahia Bahia 14 matches
Sao Paulo Statistic Bahia
7 Wins 7
2 Draws 3
4 Losses 4
17 Goals For 19
11 Goals Against 16
1.31 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
0.85 Avg Goals Conceded 1.14
6 BTTS Yes 8
9 Over 1.5 11
4 Over 2.5 7
1 Over 3.5 2
4 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 2
3.62 Shots On Goal 4.86
11.62 Total Shots 12.5
6.31 Corners 5
54.2% Ball Possession 54.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Bahia. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sao Paulo expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Bahia in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bahia having the stronger overall control.

Sao Paulo Analysis

Placed 4 with 23 points from 13 outings, Sao Paulo continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 17:11 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Jonathan Calleri (6 goals), Luciano (4 goals), Ferreira (3 goals), with creative support from Marcos Antonio (2 assists), Wendell (2 assists), Luciano (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Bahia Analysis

From their first 12 matches, Bahia have collected 21 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Their overall return of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 17:14 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Luciano Juba (5 goals), Everaldo (3 goals), Willian Jose (3 goals), with creative support from Jean Lucas (2 assists), Everton Ribeiro (2 assists), Luciano Juba (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Sao Paulo won 6 times, Bahia won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:10 from Sao Paulo's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.7%)
Predicted formations: Sao Paulo 4-2-3-1 / Bahia 4-3-3
Missing players: Sao Paulo 6, Bahia 2
H2H summary: Sao Paulo wins 6, draws 5, Bahia wins 4
Stats
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
Bahia Bahia
Shots on Goal
8
Shots on Goal
7
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
7
Blocked Shots
7
Blocked Shots
6
13 Corner Kicks 10
12 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 0
38% Ball Possession 62%
18 Total Shots 20
8 Shots on Goal 7
3 Shots off Goal 7
7 Blocked Shots 6
13 Shots insidebox 12
5 Shots outsidebox 8
4 Goalkeeper Saves 6
316 Total passes 508
253 Passes accurate 448
2.14 expected_goals 1.92
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Sao Paulo
Formation
Bahia
Rafael
Rafael
Lucas Ramon
Lucas Ramon
A. Franco
A. Franco
Sabino
Sabino
Wendell
🎯
Wendell
D. Bobadilla
D. Bobadilla
Danielzinho
Danielzinho
Artur
Artur
Luciano
Luciano
Cauly
Cauly
Jonathan Calleri
🎯
Jonathan Calleri
Leo Vieira
Leo Vieira
Nicolas Acevedo
Nicolas Acevedo
David Duarte
David Duarte
S. Ramos
S. Ramos
Luciano Juba
Luciano Juba
Erick
Erick
Jean Lucas
Jean Lucas
C. Olivera
C. Olivera
Everton Ribeiro
🎯
Everton Ribeiro
Erick Pulga
Erick Pulga
Willian Jose
Willian Jose
Sao Paulo 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
23
Rafael
G
19
Lucas Ramon
↓ 50'
28
A. Franco
D
35
Sabino
D
18
Wendell
🎯 17' ↓ 71'
D
16
D. Bobadilla
🟨 45'
M
94
Danielzinho
↓ 71'
M
37
Artur
⚽ 17'
M
10
Luciano
↓ 71'
M
80
Cauly
↓ 63'
M
9
Jonathan Calleri
🎯 73' 🟨 90+6'
F
Substitutes
31
Carlos Coronel
G
21
C. Soares
↑ 50'
D
4
Matheus Doria
D
13
E. Diaz
↑ 71' 🟨 81'
D
11
Ferreira
⚽ 73' ↑ 71'
F
17
Andre Silva
🟨 -5'
F
33
Luan Silva
↑ 71'
M
54
Luis Osorio
D
45
Lucca Marques
F
7
Lucas Moura
↑ 63'
F
14
G. Tapia
F
48
Djhordney
M
Bahia 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
22
Leo Vieira
G
5
Nicolas Acevedo
🟨 41'
D
33
David Duarte
D
21
S. Ramos
D
46
Luciano Juba
⚽ 62'
D
14
Erick
⚽ 90' 🟨 90+7'
M
6
Jean Lucas
↓ 82'
M
99
C. Olivera
↓ 56'
M
10
Everton Ribeiro
🎯 62' ↓ 82'
M
16
Erick Pulga
↓ 82'
M
12
Willian Jose
↓ 82'
F
Substitutes
34
Joao Paulo
G
7
Ademir
↑ 82'
F
15
Michel Araujo
↑ 82'
M
23
M. Sanabria
↑ 56' 🟨 90+4'
F
31
R. Gomez
D
2
Gilberto
D
27
Everaldo
↑ 82'
F
25
Iago Borduchi
D
4
Kanu
D
11
Rodrigo
↑ 82'
M
3
Gabriel Xavier
D
44
Marcos Victor
D
Last matches: Sao Paulo
31.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Remo
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Botafogo
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Fluminense
1
2
L
10.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Corinthians
2
3
L
26.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Mirassol
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Vasco DA Gama
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Vitoria
0
2
L
04.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Cruzeiro
4
1
W
01.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Internacional
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Palmeiras
0
1
L
18.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
15.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
RB Bragantino
2
1
W
12.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
25.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
1
0
W
12.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Gremio
2
0
W
04.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Santos
1
1
D
29.01.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Flamengo
2
1
W
Last matches: Bahia
30.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Botafogo
2
1
W
25.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Coritiba
2
3
L
17.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Gremio
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Santos
2
2
D
19.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Flamengo
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Mirassol
2
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Palmeiras
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Atletico Paranaense
3
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Remo
1
4
L
18.03.26
Ser
Bahia
RB Bragantino
2
0
W
15.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Internacional
1
0
W
11.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Vitoria
1
1
D
25.02.26
CON
Bahia
O'Higgins
2
1
W
18.02.26
CON
Bahia
O'Higgins
0
1
L
12.02.26
Ser
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
05.02.26
Ser
Bahia
Fluminense
1
1
D
28.01.26
Ser
Bahia
Corinthians
2
1
W
H2H: Sao Paulo vs Bahia
03.05.26
H2H
Sao Paulo
Bahia
2
2
D
26.10.25
H2H
Sao Paulo
Bahia
2
0
W
31.05.25
H2H
Bahia
Sao Paulo
2
1
L
06.11.24
H2H
Bahia
Sao Paulo
0
3
W
30.06.24
H2H
Sao Paulo
Bahia
3
1
W
29.11.23
H2H
Bahia
Sao Paulo
0
1
W
30.07.23
H2H
Sao Paulo
Bahia
0
0
D
07.11.21
H2H
Bahia
Sao Paulo
1
0
L
10.07.21
H2H
Sao Paulo
Bahia
1
0
W
28.11.20
H2H
Bahia
Sao Paulo
1
3
W
20.08.20
H2H
Sao Paulo
Bahia
1
1
D
10.10.19
H2H
Bahia
Sao Paulo
0
0
D
30.05.19
H2H
Bahia
Sao Paulo
1
0
L
23.05.19
H2H
Sao Paulo
Bahia
0
1
L
19.05.19
H2H
Sao Paulo
Bahia
0
0
D
Last matches: Sao Paulo
23.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Botafogo
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Mirassol
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Cruzeiro
4
1
W
22.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Palmeiras
0
1
L
12.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
12.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Gremio
2
0
W
29.01.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Flamengo
2
1
W
H2H at home: Sao Paulo
03.05.26
H2H
Sao Paulo
Bahia
2
2
D
26.10.25
H2H
Sao Paulo
Bahia
2
0
W
30.06.24
H2H
Sao Paulo
Bahia
3
1
W
30.07.23
H2H
Sao Paulo
Bahia
0
0
D
10.07.21
H2H
Sao Paulo
Bahia
1
0
W
20.08.20
H2H
Sao Paulo
Bahia
1
1
D
23.05.19
H2H
Sao Paulo
Bahia
0
1
L
19.05.19
H2H
Sao Paulo
Bahia
0
0
D
Last matches: Bahia
25.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Coritiba
2
3
L
19.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Flamengo
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Mirassol
2
1
W
22.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Remo
1
4
L
15.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Internacional
1
0
W
18.02.26
CON
Bahia
O'Higgins
0
1
L
12.02.26
Ser
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
28.01.26
Ser
Bahia
Corinthians
2
1
W
H2H away: Bahia
03.05.26
H2H
Sao Paulo
Bahia
2
2
D
26.10.25
H2H
Sao Paulo
Bahia
2
0
L
30.06.24
H2H
Sao Paulo
Bahia
3
1
L
30.07.23
H2H
Sao Paulo
Bahia
0
0
D
10.07.21
H2H
Sao Paulo
Bahia
1
0
L
20.08.20
H2H
Sao Paulo
Bahia
1
1
D
23.05.19
H2H
Sao Paulo
Bahia
0
1
W
19.05.19
H2H
Sao Paulo
Bahia
0
0
D

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 12 5 1 30:13 17 41
?
2 17 10 4 3 31:16 15 34
?
3 18 9 4 5 28:23 5 31
?
4 18 9 3 6 24:18 6 30
?
5 18 9 2 7 25:19 6 29
?
6
Bahia Away
17 7 5 5 25:23 2 26
?
7 18 7 5 6 24:24 0 26
?
8 18 7 4 7 23:20 3 25
?
9 18 7 3 8 22:23 -1 24
?
10 18 6 6 6 18:19 -1 24
?
11 18 6 6 6 24:28 -4 24
?
12 17 6 4 7 31:31 0 22
?
13 17 6 4 7 21:25 -4 22
?
14 18 5 6 7 21:22 -1 21
?
15 18 5 6 7 26:29 -3 21
?
16 18 5 6 7 20:23 -3 21
?
17 18 5 5 8 22:29 -7 20
?
18 18 4 6 8 21:29 -8 18
?
19 17 4 4 9 18:24 -6 16
?
20 17 1 6 10 17:33 -16 9
?
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Sao Paulo 6 missing
-
E. Diaz
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
Lucas Moura
Questionable Broken rib
OUT
-
Ryan Francisco
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Pablo Maia
Missing Fixture Broken nose
OUT
-
R. Toloi
Questionable Inactive
OUT
-
Marcos Antonio
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
Bahia 2 missing
-
Ruan Pablo
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
Ronaldo Strada
Missing Fixture Shoulder Injury
OUT