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BRAZIL › SERIE B
26.07.2026 19:00
Estádio Primeiro de Maio
Referee: Savio Pereira Sampaio, Brazil
São Bernardo
Match Timeline
Ceara
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟥
-5'
Lucas Rian
São Bernardo
⚽
23'
Helder Maciel · Assist: Mario Sergio
São Bernardo
🟨
31'
Júlio César
Ceara
🔄
46'
Lucas Rian ↔ Hugo Sanches
São Bernardo
🔄
46'
D. Davi ↔ Echapora
São Bernardo
🔄
46'
Thalisson ↔ Giulio
Ceara
🔄
46'
R. Lopez ↔ Lucca
Ceara
⚽
47'
M. N. Ferreira Berrondo · Assist: Giulio
Ceara
🟨
55'
Éder
Ceara
🔄
56'
Foguinho ↔ Hyoran
São Bernardo
🔄
56'
Rodrigo Ferreira ↔ Pedrinho
São Bernardo
⚽
59'
Hugo Sanches
São Bernardo
⚽
62'
Vina · Assist: M. N. Ferreira Berrondo
Ceara
🔄
66'
Giovanni Pavani ↔ Richardson
Ceara
🟨
68'
Felipe Garcia
São Bernardo
⚽
74'
Joao Gabriel · Assist: Giulio
Ceara
⚽
81'
Pedrinho · Assist: Mario Sergio
São Bernardo
🔄
84'
Lucas Lima ↔ Marcao Silva
São Bernardo
🔄
85'
Vina ↔ Melk
Ceara
🔄
89'
M. N. Ferreira Berrondo ↔ Enzo Lodovico
Ceara
VAR
90+10'
Lucas Rian
São Bernardo
⚽
90'
Enzo Lodovico
Ceara

São Bernardo vs Ceara Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 27.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
54.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
27.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
São Bernardo Win 56.2%
Draw 28.4%
Ceara Win 15.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
São Bernardo1.26
Ceara0.9
Recent Form (Last 5)
São Bernardo São Bernardo
WWDLW
25 GF / 19 GA
Ceara Ceara
WLDWL
16 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.32
Average Goals Scored
0.84
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.16
11
BTTS Yes
9
9
Over 2.5
5
4.32
Shots on Goal
3.84

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

São Bernardo São Bernardo 19 matches
Ceara Ceara 19 matches
São Bernardo Statistic Ceara
7 Wins 4
6 Draws 7
6 Losses 8
25 Goals For 16
19 Goals Against 22
1.32 Avg Goals Scored 0.84
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.16
11 BTTS Yes 9
13 Over 1.5 13
9 Over 2.5 5
3 Over 3.5 1
5 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 8
4.32 Shots On Goal 3.84
11.05 Total Shots 13.37
3.95 Corners 5.95
48.2% Ball Possession 50.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by São Bernardo's more proactive style and Ceara's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Ceara. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. São Bernardo arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 8 with 27 points compared to Ceara in 17 on 19, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with São Bernardo expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Ceara in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Ceara having the stronger overall control.

São Bernardo Analysis

São Bernardo approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 8 with 27 points from 18 matches. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 6 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 24:17 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Rodrigo Ferreira (3 goals), Dudu Miraíma (2 goals), Pedro Vitor (2 goals), with creative support from Dudu Miraíma (3 assists), Pedro Vitor (2 assists), Echaporã (2 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

Ceara Analysis

With 19 points from 18 games and a place of 17, Ceara still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 7 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 16:21 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Melk (4 goals), Júlio César (2 goals), Matheus Araújo (2 goals), with creative support from Melk (3 assists), Júlio César (1 assists), Fernandinho (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, São Bernardo won 0 times, Ceara won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:5 from São Bernardo's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (84.6%)
Predicted formations: São Bernardo 4-2-3-1 / Ceara 4-3-3
H2H summary: São Bernardo wins 0, draws 2, Ceara wins 1

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 17 8 7 37:19 18 59
W W W L L
2 32 17 7 8 44:31 13 58
D W W W D
3 32 16 9 7 54:27 27 57
W W D L D
4 32 15 11 6 37:27 10 56
W D D W D
5 32 15 8 9 33:28 5 53
L W W L L
6 32 14 10 8 40:30 10 52
L W W L W
7 32 15 6 11 49:45 4 51
W L W L W
8 32 13 11 8 44:34 10 50
W W L W L
9 32 13 9 10 44:43 1 48
L L D W D
10 32 11 14 7 32:25 7 47
D W L W D
11 32 13 6 13 32:40 -8 45
W L L W W
12 32 12 9 11 44:34 10 45
L W D W W
13 32 11 9 12 39:40 -1 42
L D W L D
14
Ceara Away
32 11 9 12 35:39 -4 42
W W D W D
15 32 10 12 10 38:37 1 42
L L D D W
16 32 10 8 14 36:38 -2 38
W L W D L
17 32 9 6 17 32:43 -11 33
W L L L D
18 32 7 7 18 40:47 -7 28
L L L L W
19 32 4 5 23 21:53 -32 17
L L L L L
20 32 3 4 25 17:68 -51 13
L L L W L
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