BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Urbano Caldeira
Referee: W. Sampaio
Santos
Match Timeline
Fluminense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
9'
Gabriel Barbosa
Santos
🟨
20'
Igor Vinícius
Santos
24'
J. Savarino · Assist: R. Castillo
Fluminense
🟨
25'
Gustavo Henrique Pereira
Santos
🟨
33'
Gabriel Barbosa
Santos
🟨
33'
Facundo Bernal
Fluminense
🟨
45+4'
Alisson
Fluminense
🔄
46'
Moises ↔ Rafael Gonzaga
Santos
57'
A. Barreal · Assist: Gabriel Barbosa
Santos
🔄
58'
Alisson ↔ John Kennedy
Fluminense
60'
R. Castillo · Assist: Guga
Fluminense
🔄
61'
A. Barreal ↔ L. Diaz
Santos
🟨
65'
Lucas Veríssimo
Santos
🔄
80'
F. Bernal ↔ Otavio
Fluminense
🔄
80'
J. Savarino ↔ Riquelme Felipe
Fluminense
🔄
81'
Gustavo Henrique ↔ B. Rollheiser
Santos
86'
John Kennedy · Assist: Guga
Fluminense
🔄
87'
R. Castillo ↔ PH Ganso
Fluminense
🔄
87'
K. Serna ↔ Rene
Fluminense
🟨
88'
Luan Peres
Santos
🔄
89'
Gabriel Bontempo ↔ Thaciano
Santos
🟨
90+3'
Otávio
Fluminense

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 95.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 81.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 63.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
95.8%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
81.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
63.1%
-
Probability Distribution
Santos Win 49.8%
Draw 4.2%
Fluminense Win 46.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Santos1.22
Fluminense1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Santos Santos
WWDLW
14 GF / 16 GA
Fluminense Fluminense
WLDWL
19 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1.27
Average Goals Scored
1.46
1.45
Average Goals Conceded
1.15
8
BTTS Yes
9
6
Over 2.5
7
3
Shots on Goal
6.46

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Santos Santos 11 matches
Fluminense Fluminense 13 matches
Santos Statistic Fluminense
3 Wins 6
4 Draws 3
4 Losses 4
14 Goals For 19
16 Goals Against 15
1.27 Avg Goals Scored 1.46
1.45 Avg Goals Conceded 1.15
8 BTTS Yes 9
9 Over 1.5 10
6 Over 2.5 7
3 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 4
1 Failed To Score 1
3 Shots On Goal 6.46
12.73 Total Shots 16.23
5.55 Corners 5.85
48.3% Ball Possession 61.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Fluminense's more proactive style and Santos's more cautious structure. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Fluminense. Fluminense carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 20 points while Santos sit 15 on 13, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Santos expected to line up in 4-4-1-1 and Fluminense in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fluminense having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Santos Analysis

Santos sit 15 with 13 points after 11 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 14:16, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Gabriel Barbosa (3 goals), Neymar (3 goals), Moises (2 goals), with creative support from Neymar (2 assists), Gabriel Barbosa (1 assists), Moises (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with Vinicius Lira, Gabriel Menino, Mayke, G. Escobar unavailable.

Fluminense Analysis

Placed 4 with 20 points from 11 outings, Fluminense continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, while the 18:13 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on John Kennedy (4 goals), Agustín Canobbio (3 goals), Hércules (3 goals), with creative support from L. Acosta (3 assists), J. Savarino (2 assists), Rene (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with G. Cano, Nonato, Matheus Reis, A. Canobbio, Martinelli unavailable.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Santos won 4 times, Fluminense won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:17 from Santos's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.8%)
Predicted formations: Santos 4-4-1-1 / Fluminense 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Santos 4, Fluminense 7
H2H summary: Santos wins 4, draws 5, Fluminense wins 6
Stats
Santos Santos
Fluminense Fluminense
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
1
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
1
6 Corner Kicks 4
13 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 2
47% Ball Possession 53%
7 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Goal 3
1 Shots off Goal 6
2 Blocked Shots 1
6 Shots insidebox 4
1 Shots outsidebox 6
0 Goalkeeper Saves 2
444 Total passes 502
377 Passes accurate 431
1.30 expected_goals 0.64
🟨 5 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Santos
Formation
Fluminense
Gabriel Brazao
Gabriel Brazao
Igor Vinicius
Igor Vinicius
Lucas Verissimo
Lucas Verissimo
Luan Peres
Luan Peres
A. Barreal
A. Barreal
Willian Arao
Willian Arao
Gustavo Henrique
Gustavo Henrique
Gabriel Bontempo
Gabriel Bontempo
Neymar
Neymar
Moises
Moises
Gabriel Barbosa
🎯
Gabriel Barbosa
Fabio
Fabio
Guga
🎯
Guga
Jemmes
Jemmes
J. Freytes
J. Freytes
Guilherme Arana
Guilherme Arana
Hercules
Hercules
F. Bernal
F. Bernal
Alisson
Alisson
J. Savarino
J. Savarino
R. Castillo
🎯
R. Castillo
K. Serna
K. Serna
Santos 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
77
Gabriel Brazao
G
18
Igor Vinicius
🟨 20'
D
4
Lucas Verissimo
🟨 65'
D
14
Luan Peres
🟨 88'
D
22
A. Barreal
⚽ 57' ↓ 61'
D
15
Willian Arao
M
48
Gustavo Henrique
↓ 81' 🟨 25'
M
49
Gabriel Bontempo
↓ 89'
M
10
Neymar
M
21
Moises
↓ 46'
M
9
Gabriel Barbosa
⚽ 9' 🎯 57' 🟨 33'
F
Substitutes
1
Diogenes
G
6
Ze Rafael
M
12
Mayke
D
32
B. Rollheiser
↑ 81'
F
19
L. Diaz
↑ 61'
F
30
Miguelito
M
38
Rafael Gonzaga
↑ 46'
D
5
Joao Schmidt
M
16
Thaciano
↑ 89'
M
28
C. Oliva
M
98
A. Frias
D
7
J. Robinho
F
Fluminense 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
Fabio
G
23
Guga
🎯 60' 🎯 86'
D
3
Jemmes
D
22
J. Freytes
D
13
Guilherme Arana
D
35
Hercules
M
5
F. Bernal
↓ 80' 🟨 33'
M
25
Alisson
↓ 58' 🟨 45+4'
M
11
J. Savarino
⚽ 24' ↓ 80'
F
19
R. Castillo
⚽ 60' 🎯 24' ↓ 87'
F
90
K. Serna
↓ 87'
F
Substitutes
27
Marcelo Pitaluga
G
10
PH Ganso
↑ 87'
M
2
Samuel Xavier
D
4
Ignacio
D
21
Igor Rabello
D
9
John Kennedy
⚽ 86' ↑ 58'
F
46
Julio Fidelis
D
34
Wesley Nata
94
Otavio
↑ 80' 🟨 90+3'
M
6
Rene
↑ 87'
D
29
J. Millan
D
28
Riquelme Felipe
↑ 80'
F
Last matches: Santos
30.05.26
Ser
Santos
Vitoria
3
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Santos
Gremio
2
3
L
17.05.26
Ser
Santos
Coritiba
0
3
L
10.05.26
Ser
Santos
RB Bragantino
2
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Santos
Palmeiras
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Santos
Bahia
2
2
D
11.04.26
Ser
Santos
Atletico-MG
1
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Santos
Flamengo
1
3
L
02.04.26
Ser
Santos
Remo
2
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Santos
Cruzeiro
0
0
D
19.03.26
Ser
Santos
Internacional
1
2
L
15.03.26
Ser
Santos
Corinthians
1
1
D
11.03.26
Ser
Santos
Mirassol
2
2
D
26.02.26
Ser
Santos
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
W
12.02.26
Ser
Santos
Atletico Paranaense
1
2
L
04.02.26
Ser
Santos
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
28.01.26
Ser
Santos
Chapecoense-sc
2
4
L
Last matches: Fluminense
31.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
28.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Deportivo La Guaira
3
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Mirassol
0
1
L
19.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Bolívar
2
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Vitoria
2
2
D
07.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Internacional
0
2
L
30.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Bolívar
0
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Chapecoense-sc
2
1
W
16.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Flamengo
1
2
L
07.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Deportivo La Guaira
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Coritiba
1
1
D
02.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Corinthians
3
1
W
21.03.26
Ser
Fluminense
Atletico-MG
1
0
W
19.03.26
Ser
Fluminense
Vasco DA Gama
2
3
L
15.03.26
Ser
Fluminense
Atletico Paranaense
3
2
W
12.03.26
Ser
Fluminense
Remo
2
0
W
26.02.26
Ser
Fluminense
Palmeiras
1
2
L
H2H: Santos vs Fluminense
19.04.26
H2H
Santos
Fluminense
2
3
L
31.08.25
H2H
Santos
Fluminense
0
0
D
13.04.25
H2H
Fluminense
Santos
1
0
L
29.11.23
H2H
Santos
Fluminense
0
3
L
29.07.23
H2H
Fluminense
Santos
1
0
L
01.08.22
H2H
Santos
Fluminense
2
2
D
09.04.22
H2H
Fluminense
Santos
0
0
D
27.10.21
H2H
Santos
Fluminense
2
0
W
17.06.21
H2H
Fluminense
Santos
1
0
L
21.02.21
H2H
Santos
Fluminense
1
1
D
25.10.20
H2H
Fluminense
Santos
3
1
L
26.09.19
H2H
Fluminense
Santos
1
1
D
02.05.19
H2H
Santos
Fluminense
2
1
W
27.10.18
H2H
Santos
Fluminense
3
0
W
13.06.18
H2H
Fluminense
Santos
0
1
W
Last matches: Santos
30.05.26
Ser
Santos
Vitoria
3
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Santos
Coritiba
0
3
L
10.05.26
Ser
Santos
RB Bragantino
2
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Santos
Atletico-MG
1
0
W
02.04.26
Ser
Santos
Remo
2
0
W
19.03.26
Ser
Santos
Internacional
1
2
L
15.03.26
Ser
Santos
Corinthians
1
1
D
26.02.26
Ser
Santos
Vasco DA Gama
2
1
W
04.02.26
Ser
Santos
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
H2H at home: Santos
19.04.26
H2H
Santos
Fluminense
2
3
L
31.08.25
H2H
Santos
Fluminense
0
0
D
29.11.23
H2H
Santos
Fluminense
0
3
L
01.08.22
H2H
Santos
Fluminense
2
2
D
27.10.21
H2H
Santos
Fluminense
2
0
W
21.02.21
H2H
Santos
Fluminense
1
1
D
02.05.19
H2H
Santos
Fluminense
2
1
W
27.10.18
H2H
Santos
Fluminense
3
0
W
Last matches: Fluminense
31.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Mirassol
0
1
L
07.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Internacional
0
2
L
30.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Bolívar
0
2
L
07.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Deportivo La Guaira
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Coritiba
1
1
D
19.03.26
Ser
Fluminense
Vasco DA Gama
2
3
L
12.03.26
Ser
Fluminense
Remo
2
0
W
26.02.26
Ser
Fluminense
Palmeiras
1
2
L
05.02.26
Ser
Fluminense
Bahia
1
1
D
H2H away: Fluminense
19.04.26
H2H
Santos
Fluminense
2
3
W
31.08.25
H2H
Santos
Fluminense
0
0
D
29.11.23
H2H
Santos
Fluminense
0
3
W
01.08.22
H2H
Santos
Fluminense
2
2
D
27.10.21
H2H
Santos
Fluminense
2
0
L
21.02.21
H2H
Santos
Fluminense
1
1
D
02.05.19
H2H
Santos
Fluminense
2
1
L
27.10.18
H2H
Santos
Fluminense
3
0
L

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 12 5 1 30:13 17 41
?
2 17 10 4 3 31:16 15 34
?
3 18 9 4 5 28:23 5 31
?
4 18 9 3 6 24:18 6 30
?
5 18 9 2 7 25:19 6 29
?
6 17 7 5 5 25:23 2 26
?
7 18 7 5 6 24:24 0 26
?
8 18 7 4 7 23:20 3 25
?
9 18 7 3 8 22:23 -1 24
?
10 18 6 6 6 18:19 -1 24
?
11 18 6 6 6 24:28 -4 24
?
12 17 6 4 7 31:31 0 22
?
13 17 6 4 7 21:25 -4 22
?
14 18 5 6 7 21:22 -1 21
?
15 18 5 6 7 26:29 -3 21
?
16 18 5 6 7 20:23 -3 21
?
17 18 5 5 8 22:29 -7 20
?
18 18 4 6 8 21:29 -8 18
?
19 17 4 4 9 18:24 -6 16
?
20 17 1 6 10 17:33 -16 9
?
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Santos 4 missing
-
Vinicius Lira
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Gabriel Menino
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
G. Escobar
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
T. Rincon
Missing Fixture Health problems
OUT
Fluminense 7 missing
-
F. Bernal
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
G. Cano
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
Nonato
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
Matheus Reis
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
A. Canobbio
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
L. Acosta
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Martinelli
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT