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BRAZIL › SERIE A
25.07.2026 21:30
Vila Belmiro
Referee: F. Mendes
Santos
Match Timeline
Chapecoense-sc
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
36'
Neymar · Assist: A. Barreal
Santos
🔄
46'
Enio ↔ Giovanni Augusto
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
46'
K. Ramirez ↔ Marcinho
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
46'
David Antunes ↔ Bruno Matias
Chapecoense-sc
⚽
51'
Marcinho · Assist: Giovanni Augusto
Chapecoense-sc
🟨
54'
Camilo
Chapecoense-sc
⚽
62'
Joao Ananias
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
63'
B. Rollheiser ↔ G. Caballero
Santos
🔄
63'
Igor Vinicius ↔ Gabriel Menino
Santos
🔄
63'
Willian Arao ↔ C. Oliva
Santos
🟨
68'
Lucas Veríssimo
Santos
🟨
73'
Matheus
Chapecoense-sc
🟨
75'
Bruno Tubarão
Chapecoense-sc
🟨
76'
Neymar
Santos
🟨
77'
Álvaro Barreal
Santos
🔄
80'
Gabriel Barbosa ↔ Rony
Santos
🔄
80'
A. Barreal ↔ Thaciano
Santos
🔄
80'
Fernando ↔ Bruno Pacheco
Chapecoense-sc
🔄
83'
Camilo Reijers ↔ Vinicius Balieiro
Chapecoense-sc
🟨
88'
Bruno Matias
Chapecoense-sc
VAR
88'
Vinicius Balieiro
Chapecoense-sc
⚽
89'
Neymar
Santos

Santos vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 70.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
0 agree / 1 disagree
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
70.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
72.1%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Santos Win 70.6%
Draw 5.5%
Chapecoense-sc Win 24%
Expected Goals (xG)
Santos1.7
Chapecoense-sc1.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
Santos Santos
WWDLW
30 GF / 31 GA
Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc
WLDWL
19 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
0.95
1.55
Average Goals Conceded
2
14
BTTS Yes
12
13
Over 2.5
10
3.63
Shots on Goal
3.32

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Santos Santos 20 matches
Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc 20 matches
Santos Statistic Chapecoense-sc
6 Wins 2
6 Draws 6
8 Losses 12
30 Goals For 19
31 Goals Against 40
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 0.95
1.55 Avg Goals Conceded 2
14 BTTS Yes 12
18 Over 1.5 18
13 Over 2.5 10
7 Over 3.5 6
5 Clean Sheets 1
2 Failed To Score 8
3.63 Shots On Goal 3.32
12.32 Total Shots 12.68
5 Corners 3.84
48.5% Ball Possession 42.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Santos arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 16 with 21 points compared to Chapecoense-sc in 20 on 9, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Chapecoense-sc.

Santos Analysis

Santos approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 21 points from 19 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 27:31, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Gabriel Barbosa (7 goals), Neymar (4 goals), Álvaro Barreal (4 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Barbosa (2 assists), Neymar (2 assists), Miguelito (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Chapecoense-sc Analysis

With 9 points from 17 games and a place of 20, Chapecoense-sc still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 6 draws, and 10 defeats, and the 17:33 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on Walter Clar (3 goals), Jean Carlos (2 goals), Neto Pessoa (2 goals), with creative support from Bruno Pacheco (3 assists), Jean Carlos (2 assists), Walter Clar (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Santos won 9 times, Chapecoense-sc won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:13 from Santos's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.5%)
Predicted formations: Santos 4-2-3-1 / Chapecoense-sc 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Santos 4, Chapecoense-sc 7
H2H summary: Santos wins 9, draws 2, Chapecoense-sc wins 4

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 18 6 4 55:23 32 60
W W W W W
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 28 14 7 7 43:32 11 49
W D L D W
4 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
5 28 12 10 6 43:35 8 46
L W W W W
6 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W L W
7 28 12 7 9 37:32 5 43
W D W L W
8 28 11 8 9 43:41 2 41
W W W W W
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 28 10 6 12 33:32 1 36
L W L W W
11 28 10 6 12 33:32 1 36
L L D L L
12 28 9 8 11 41:45 -4 35
L W D D L
13 28 9 6 13 28:42 -14 33
L D W L L
14 28 8 8 12 29:32 -3 32
L L L L L
15 28 8 8 12 33:42 -9 32
W D W L D
16 27 8 7 12 34:41 -7 31
W W L W L
17 28 7 8 13 30:38 -8 29
D L L L W
18 28 6 10 12 30:36 -6 28
L W L L D
19 28 5 8 15 32:47 -15 23
L L L L L
20 27 3 9 15 29:53 -24 18
D L W L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B