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ARGENTINA › PRIMERA NACIONAL
04.10.2026 21:30
Estadio La Ciudadela
San Martin Tucuman
Match Timeline
Gimnasia Y Tiro
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
5'
N. Rinaldi
Gimnasia Y Tiro
🟨
19'
D. Sand
San Martin Tucuman
🟨
28'
E. Parnisari
San Martin Tucuman
🔄
65'
J. Rocca ↔ J. Capano
Gimnasia Y Tiro
⚽
68'
S. Brinone
San Martin Tucuman
🔄
69'
A. Cisnero ↔ A. Veliez
San Martin Tucuman
🔄
73'
T. Banega ↔ W. Montoya
Gimnasia Y Tiro
🔄
73'
F. Rojas ↔ N. Contin
Gimnasia Y Tiro
🔄
73'
N. Rinaldi ↔ M. Birge
Gimnasia Y Tiro
🟨
82'
N. Gallardo
San Martin Tucuman
🔄
86'
G. Carabajal ↔ M. Garcia
San Martin Tucuman
🔄
90'
M. Veron ↔ A. Galvan
San Martin Tucuman
🟨
90+5'
B. Cabrera
San Martin Tucuman

San Martin Tucuman vs Gimnasia Y Tiro Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 46.5%
Odds 5.78
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds 2.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 2.82
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
46.5%
5.78 ▥
BTTS Yes
75%
2.62 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
2.82 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.45 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
10.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
21.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
San Martin Tucuman Win 36.6%
Draw 16.8%
Gimnasia Y Tiro Win 46.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
San Martin Tucuman0.99
Gimnasia Y Tiro0.98
Recent Form (Last 5)
San Martin Tucuman San Martin Tucuman
WWDLW
35 GF / 33 GA
Gimnasia Y Tiro Gimnasia Y Tiro
WLDWL
32 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.06
Average Goals Scored
0.97
1
Average Goals Conceded
0.88
15
BTTS Yes
14
10
Over 2.5
9
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

San Martin Tucuman San Martin Tucuman 33 matches
Gimnasia Y Tiro Gimnasia Y Tiro 33 matches
San Martin Tucuman Statistic Gimnasia Y Tiro
9 Wins 13
15 Draws 10
9 Losses 10
35 Goals For 32
33 Goals Against 29
1.06 Avg Goals Scored 0.97
1 Avg Goals Conceded 0.88
15 BTTS Yes 14
24 Over 1.5 19
10 Over 2.5 9
4 Over 3.5 4
12 Clean Sheets 13
11 Failed To Score 11
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Gimnasia Y Tiro having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Gimnasia Y Tiro. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

San Martin Tucuman Analysis

From their first 30 matches, San Martin Tucuman have collected 39 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. The record of 9 wins, 12 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 32:30 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, the record of 5 wins, 8 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Gimnasia Y Tiro Analysis

So far, Gimnasia Y Tiro have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 45 points from 30 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 12 wins, 9 draws, and 9 losses, while the 31:27 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, San Martin Tucuman won 6 times, Gimnasia Y Tiro won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:13 from San Martin Tucuman's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.8 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.2%)
H2H summary: San Martin Tucuman wins 6, draws 4, Gimnasia Y Tiro wins 5

Standings

Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 15 13 4 32:15 17 58
D W D D D
2 32 15 11 6 38:26 12 56
W L W D W
3 32 17 4 11 38:30 8 55
W W D W W
4 32 15 9 8 48:40 8 54
L D D W W
5 32 13 9 10 34:26 8 48
D L W W L
6 32 13 9 10 32:28 4 48
L W L D W
7 32 13 8 11 39:31 8 47
W W D D D
8 32 13 7 12 32:31 1 46
W W L W L
9 32 12 9 11 34:32 2 45
L L W D L
10 32 10 13 9 35:32 3 43
W D L W L
11 32 11 9 12 27:30 -3 42
L L W L L
12 32 10 9 13 30:27 3 39
D W L W L
13 32 10 8 14 28:38 -10 38
W L L D L
14 32 9 10 13 26:35 -9 37
D L W L W
15 32 9 9 14 23:30 -7 36
L W D L W
16 32 6 16 10 27:32 -5 34
L W D D D
17 32 9 6 17 24:33 -9 33
W L W L L
18 32 5 8 19 23:54 -31 23
L L L L L
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation