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02.05.2026 21:45
Estadio Pedro Bidegain
Referee: P. Dovalo
San Lorenzo
Match Timeline
Independiente
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
8'
Milton Valenzuela
Independiente
⚽
16'
M. Abaldo · Assist: M. Gutierrez
Independiente
🟨
20'
Alexis Cuello
San Lorenzo
🟨
39'
Manuel Insaurralde
San Lorenzo
🟨
41'
Kevin Lomónaco
Independiente
🔄
46'
F. Gulli ↔ N. Barrios
San Lorenzo
🔄
46'
M. De Ritis ↔ J. Rattalino
San Lorenzo
⚽
54'
M. Gutierrez · Assist: M. Abaldo
Independiente
🔄
65'
I. Marcone ↔ Rodrigo Fernandez
Independiente
🔄
65'
S. Montiel ↔ L. Millan
Independiente
⚽
72'
E. Herrera
San Lorenzo
🔄
80'
M. Reali ↔ A. Ladstatter
San Lorenzo
🔄
80'
K. Lomonaco ↔ N. Freire
Independiente
🔄
80'
M. Gutierrez ↔ J. Fedorco
Independiente
🔄
81'
M. Insaurralde ↔ D. Herazo
San Lorenzo
🔄
89'
G. Avalos ↔ F. Tempone
Independiente
🟨
90+7'
Rodrigo Auzmendi
San Lorenzo
🟨
90+3'
Alexis Cuello
San Lorenzo
🟥
90+3'
Alexis Cuello
San Lorenzo
🟨
90'
Juan Fedorco
Independiente
🟨
90'
Sebastián Valdez
Independiente

San Lorenzo vs Independiente Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 66.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 45.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 59.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
66.5%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
45.3%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
59.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
75.5%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
San Lorenzo Win 66.5%
Draw 0%
Independiente Win 33.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
San Lorenzo1.2
Independiente1.28
Recent Form (Last 5)
San Lorenzo San Lorenzo
WWDLW
18 GF / 12 GA
Independiente Independiente
WLDWL
26 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.13
Average Goals Scored
1.63
0.75
Average Goals Conceded
1.31
5
BTTS Yes
11
3
Over 2.5
6
3.33
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 16 matches
Independiente Independiente 16 matches
San Lorenzo Statistic Independiente
6 Wins 6
7 Draws 6
3 Losses 4
18 Goals For 26
12 Goals Against 21
1.13 Avg Goals Scored 1.63
0.75 Avg Goals Conceded 1.31
5 BTTS Yes 11
7 Over 1.5 14
3 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 4
10 Clean Sheets 4
5 Failed To Score 1
3.33 Shots On Goal 4
9.47 Total Shots 13
3.8 Corners 5.8
49.5% Ball Possession 54.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Independiente. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with San Lorenzo expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Independiente in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Independiente having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

San Lorenzo Analysis

San Lorenzo sit 15 with 118 points after 88 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of - wins, - draws, and - defeats with a 0:0 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Cuello (4 goals), G. Rodriguez (2 goals), L. Vietto (2 goals), with creative support from A. Cuello (3 assists), Facundo Gulli (2 assists), M. De Ritis (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Independiente Analysis

Independiente sit 10 with 131 points after 88 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted - wins, - draws, and - losses, while the 0:0 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on G. Avalos (9 goals), M. Abaldo (4 goals), I. Malcorra (1 goals), with creative support from G. Avalos (5 assists), I. Malcorra (3 assists), S. Arias (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, San Lorenzo won 3 times, Independiente won 3 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:10 from San Lorenzo's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 1.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: San Lorenzo 3-4-2-1 / Independiente 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: San Lorenzo wins 3, draws 6, Independiente wins 3

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
L D W L W
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
W D W W W
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
W L D W D
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
L D L L W
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
D D L W D
6 16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
W W D W W
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
W W L L D
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
L L L L W
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
W D W W W
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
L W W D W
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
L W L D L
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
L D D L L
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
D D D L L
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
L D W D D
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
L D D L D
Knockout Phase