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GEORGIA › EROVNULI LIGA
02.05.2026 17:00
26 May Stadium
Referee: A. Aptsiauri
Samgurali
Match Timeline
Gagra
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
11'
I. Skrypnyk
Gagra
⚽
16'
I. Janjgava
Samgurali
⚽
24'
Claudio Cebolinha · Assist: L. Gegetchkori
Samgurali
🔄
46'
G. Sadghobelashvili ↔ L. Kekelidze
Gagra
🔄
46'
O. Chochia ↔ S. Zoidze
Gagra
🟨
51'
D. Mujiri
Gagra
🟨
58'
S. Zoidze
Gagra
🔄
66'
L. Kvaratskhelia ↔ N. Tsetskhladze
Samgurali
🔄
71'
Jefinho ↔ O. Aptsiauri
Samgurali
🔄
71'
Claudio Cebolinha ↔ L. Papava
Samgurali
🔄
71'
M. Tsintsadze ↔ Z. Tchavtchanidze
Gagra
🔄
71'
D. Mujiri ↔ G. Pipia
Gagra
🔄
85'
Wellissol ↔ G. Gogia
Samgurali
🔄
87'
I. Skrypnyk ↔ A. Peikrishvili
Gagra

Samgurali vs Gagra Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 61.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 9.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
61.7%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
9.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Samgurali Win 24.8%
Draw 13.5%
Gagra Win 61.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Samgurali1.45
Gagra1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Samgurali Samgurali
WWDLW
24 GF / 26 GA
Gagra Gagra
WLDWL
16 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.41
Average Goals Scored
1.14
1.53
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
12
BTTS Yes
9
10
Over 2.5
6
3.44
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Samgurali Samgurali 17 matches
Gagra Gagra 14 matches
Samgurali Statistic Gagra
5 Wins 3
5 Draws 6
7 Losses 5
24 Goals For 16
26 Goals Against 21
1.41 Avg Goals Scored 1.14
1.53 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
12 BTTS Yes 9
14 Over 1.5 11
10 Over 2.5 6
5 Over 3.5 2
4 Clean Sheets 2
2 Failed To Score 3
3.44 Shots On Goal 4
0 Total Shots 0
5.89 Corners 3.67
52.2% Ball Possession 45.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Gagra. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Samgurali have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Gagra having the stronger overall control.

Samgurali Analysis

Samgurali sit 9 with 8 points after 9 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 defeats with a 8:17 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Wellissol (2 goals), Claudio Cebolinha (1 goals), G. Gogolashvili (1 goals), with creative support from L. Shergelashvili (1 assists), N. Khorkheli (1 assists), L. Papava (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Gagra Analysis

Gagra are currently 8 in the standings with 10 points from 9 matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 9:12 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by A. Andreychuk (2 goals), D. Mujiri (2 goals), I. Skrypnyk (2 goals), with creative support from Wanderson (4 assists), A. Andreychuk (2 assists), S. Zoidze (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Samgurali won 7 times, Gagra won 2 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:10 from Samgurali's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.5%)
Predicted formations: Samgurali 4-1-4-1 / Gagra 4-4-2
H2H summary: Samgurali wins 7, draws 6, Gagra wins 2

Standings

Umaglesi Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 8 6 50:37 13 53
W W W D W
2 29 15 7 7 36:24 12 52
W W L W D
3 29 14 9 6 48:32 16 51
W L W W W
4 28 15 4 9 40:31 9 49
W L W W W
5 28 12 4 12 39:33 6 40
L W L D W
6 29 11 5 13 43:52 -9 38
W W L L L
7 29 9 10 10 46:38 8 37
L D L W D
8
Gagra Away
29 6 11 12 26:43 -17 29
L L D L D
9 29 5 11 13 38:49 -11 26
L D L L D
10 29 2 11 16 21:48 -27 17
L L D L D
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2