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GERMANY › BUNDESLIGA
09.05.2026 13:30
Red Bull Arena
Referee: Benjamin Brand, Germany
RB Leipzig
Match Timeline
FC St. Pauli
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
19'
Castello Lukeba
RB Leipzig
⚽
45'
X. Schlager · Assist: C. Baumgartner
RB Leipzig
🟨
50'
Christoph Baumgartner
RB Leipzig
⚽
54'
W. Orban · Assist: D. Raum
RB Leipzig
🔄
64'
L. Ritzka ↔ H. Wahl
FC St. Pauli
🔄
64'
L. Oppie ↔ F. Stevens
FC St. Pauli
🔄
69'
D. Raum ↔ M. Finkgrafe
RB Leipzig
🔄
69'
A. Ouedraogo ↔ N. Seiwald
RB Leipzig
🔄
72'
A. Hountondji ↔ A. Ceesay
FC St. Pauli
🔄
79'
B. Gruda ↔ A. Nusa
RB Leipzig
⚽
86'
A. Ceesay · Assist: J. Irvine
FC St. Pauli
🔄
89'
C. Metcalfe ↔ D. Sinani
FC St. Pauli
🔄
89'
E. Smith ↔ M. Rasmussen
FC St. Pauli
🔄
90+1'
R. Baku ↔ B. Henrichs
RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig vs FC St. Pauli Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 90%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 21.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
90%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
21.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
RB Leipzig Win 90%
Draw 0%
FC St. Pauli Win 10%
Expected Goals (xG)
RB Leipzig1.87
FC St. Pauli1.03
Recent Form (Last 5)
RB Leipzig RB Leipzig
WWDLW
63 GF / 42 GA
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli
WLDWL
27 GF / 55 GA
Key Stats
1.97
Average Goals Scored
0.84
1.31
Average Goals Conceded
1.72
19
BTTS Yes
17
22
Over 2.5
17
6.03
Shots on Goal
3.41

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 32 matches
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 32 matches
RB Leipzig Statistic FC St. Pauli
19 Wins 6
5 Draws 8
8 Losses 18
63 Goals For 27
42 Goals Against 55
1.97 Avg Goals Scored 0.84
1.31 Avg Goals Conceded 1.72
19 BTTS Yes 17
27 Over 1.5 26
22 Over 2.5 17
15 Over 3.5 6
11 Clean Sheets 5
3 Failed To Score 13
6.03 Shots On Goal 3.41
15.94 Total Shots 10.31
5.47 Corners 4.63
53.2% Ball Possession 44.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around RB Leipzig's more proactive style and FC St. Pauli's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with RB Leipzig expected to line up in 4-3-3 and FC St. Pauli in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FC St. Pauli having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. RB Leipzig come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. RB Leipzig arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 62 points compared to FC St. Pauli in 17 on 26, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring FC St. Pauli.

RB Leipzig Analysis

RB Leipzig come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 62 points after 32 matches. With 19 wins, 5 draws, and 8 defeats plus a goal balance of 63:42, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by C. Baumgartner (13 goals), Yan Diomande (12 goals), Romulo Cardoso (10 goals), with creative support from Yan Diomande (8 assists), C. Baumgartner (7 assists), D. Raum (6 assists), and at the back they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 11 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

FC St. Pauli Analysis

With 26 points from 32 games and a place of 17, FC St. Pauli still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 6 wins, 8 draws, and 18 losses, together with goals at 27:55, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through D. Sinani (5 goals), A. Hountondji (4 goals), M. Kaars (3 goals), with creative support from D. Sinani (3 assists), J. Fujita (3 assists), M. Saliakas (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 11 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, RB Leipzig won 4 times, FC St. Pauli won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:8 from RB Leipzig's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: RB Leipzig 4-3-3 / FC St. Pauli 3-4-2-1
Missing players: RB Leipzig 6, FC St. Pauli 5
H2H summary: RB Leipzig wins 4, draws 2, FC St. Pauli wins 3

Standings

Bundesliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 5 1 122:36 86 89
W W D W W
2 34 22 7 5 70:34 36 73
W W L W L
3 34 20 5 9 66:47 19 65
L W L W W
4 34 18 8 8 71:49 22 62
D W D D L
5 34 18 7 9 65:52 13 61
L W D W W
6 34 17 8 9 68:47 21 59
D L W W L
7 34 13 8 13 51:57 -6 47
W L D L W
8 34 11 11 12 61:65 -4 44
D L L D L
9 34 12 7 15 45:61 -16 43
L W W D W
10 34 10 10 14 44:53 -9 40
W L W L D
11 34 10 9 15 44:58 -14 39
W W D L L
12 34 9 11 14 42:53 -11 38
W L W D D
13 34 9 11 14 40:54 -14 38
D W W L L
14 34 7 11 16 49:63 -14 32
L L D L D
15 34 8 8 18 37:60 -23 32
L L L D W
16 34 7 8 19 45:69 -24 29
L D W L D
17 34 6 8 20 41:72 -31 26
L W D W L
18 34 6 8 20 29:60 -31 26
L L L L D
Champions League
UEFA Europa League
Conference League Qualification
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation