Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
55.8%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
73.4%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
78.9%
|
- |
Rayo Vallecano
Real Sociedad
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Rayo Vallecano
48 matches
Real Sociedad
40 matches
| Rayo Vallecano | Statistic | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| 20 | Wins | 17 |
| 12 | Draws | 11 |
| 16 | Losses | 12 |
| 66 | Goals For | 65 |
| 55 | Goals Against | 56 |
| 1.38 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.63 |
| 1.15 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.4 |
| 22 | BTTS Yes | 29 |
| 35 | Over 1.5 | 32 |
| 24 | Over 2.5 | 24 |
| 12 | Over 3.5 | 16 |
| 15 | Clean Sheets | 7 |
| 14 | Failed To Score | 4 |
| 4.63 | Shots On Goal | 4.73 |
| 14.06 | Total Shots | 12.68 |
| 6.21 | Corners | 5.63 |
| 53.7% | Ball Possession | 49% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Real Sociedad's more proactive style and Rayo Vallecano's more cautious structure. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Real Sociedad. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.
Rayo Vallecano sit 12 with 38 points after 32 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 11 draws, and 12 losses, while the 29:38 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. de Frutos (10 goals), A. Garcia (4 goals), I. Palazon (3 goals), with creative support from A. Garcia (5 assists), I. Palazon (3 assists), Andrei Rațiu (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 5 wins, 8 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without D. Mendez, A. Batalla, A. Garcia, the biggest concern is that one of those absentees also contributes heavily in both finishing and chance creation.
From their first 32 matches, Real Sociedad have collected 42 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. The record of 11 wins, 9 draws, and 12 defeats, together with a 49:48 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Oyarzabal (12 goals), G. Guedes (8 goals), B. Mendez (6 goals), with creative support from G. Guedes (4 assists), A. Barrenetxea (4 assists), T. Kubo (4 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with A. Odriozola, I. Ruperez, I. Zubeldia unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Rayo Vallecano won 2 times, Real Sociedad won 5 times, while 8 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:24 from Rayo Vallecano's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.
Rayo Vallecano
9
8
8
3
7
2
Lineups
Rayo Vallecano
Crystal Palace
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
Rayo Vallecano
Villarreal
Rayo Vallecano
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Girona
Rayo Vallecano
Strasbourg
Rayo Vallecano
Getafe
Rayo Vallecano
Strasbourg
Rayo Vallecano
Espanyol
Rayo Vallecano
AEK Athens FC
Rayo Vallecano
Mallorca
Rayo Vallecano
AEK Athens FC
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
Rayo Vallecano
Barcelona
Rayo Vallecano
Samsunspor
Rayo Vallecano
Levante
Rayo Vallecano
Samsunspor
Rayo Vallecano
Sevilla
Rayo Vallecano
Oviedo
Rayo Vallecano
Athletic Club
Real Sociedad
Espanyol
Real Sociedad
Valencia
Real Sociedad
Girona
Real Sociedad
Real Betis
Real Sociedad
Sevilla
Real Sociedad
Getafe
Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid
Real Sociedad
Alaves
Real Sociedad
Levante
Real Sociedad
Villarreal
Real Sociedad
Osasuna
Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid
Real Sociedad
Athletic Club
Real Sociedad
Mallorca
Real Sociedad
Oviedo
Real Sociedad
Real Madrid
Real Sociedad
Athletic Club
Real Sociedad
Elche
Real Sociedad
Alaves
Real Sociedad
Athletic Club
Rayo Vallecano
Villarreal
Rayo Vallecano
Girona
Rayo Vallecano
Strasbourg
Rayo Vallecano
Espanyol
Rayo Vallecano
AEK Athens FC
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
Rayo Vallecano
Samsunspor
Rayo Vallecano
Levante
Rayo Vallecano
Oviedo
Rayo Vallecano
Athletic Club
Rayo Vallecano
Atletico Madrid
Rayo Vallecano
Osasuna
Rayo Vallecano
Mallorca
Rayo Vallecano
Getafe
Rayo Vallecano
Drita
Rayo Vallecano
Real Betis
Rayo Vallecano
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid
Rayo Vallecano
Lech Poznan
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
Real Sociedad
Espanyol
Real Sociedad
Girona
Real Sociedad
Sevilla
Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid
Real Sociedad
Villarreal
Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid
Real Sociedad
Mallorca
Real Sociedad
Real Madrid
Real Sociedad
Athletic Club
Real Sociedad
Alaves
Real Sociedad
Athletic Club
Real Sociedad
Getafe
Real Sociedad
Levante
Real Sociedad
Eldense
Real Sociedad
Alaves
Real Sociedad
Reddis
Real Sociedad
Osasuna
Real Sociedad
Elche
Real Sociedad
SD Negreira
Real Sociedad
Celta Vigo
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38 | 31 | 1 | 6 | 95:36 | 59 | 94 |
L
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 38 | 27 | 5 | 6 | 77:35 | 42 | 86 |
W
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 3 | 38 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 72:46 | 26 | 72 |
W
L
L
D
W
|
|
| 4 | 38 | 21 | 6 | 11 | 62:44 | 18 | 69 |
L
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 5 | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 59:48 | 11 | 60 |
W
L
W
D
W
|
|
| 6 | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 53:48 | 5 | 54 |
W
D
L
W
W
|
|
| 7 | 38 | 15 | 6 | 17 | 32:38 | -6 | 51 |
W
L
W
D
L
|
|
| 8 |
Rayo Vallecano
Home
|
38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 41:44 | -3 | 50 |
W
W
D
D
W
|
| 9 | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 46:55 | -9 | 49 |
W
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 10 |
Real Sociedad
Away
|
38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 59:61 | -2 | 46 |
D
L
D
D
L
|
| 11 | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 43:55 | -12 | 46 |
D
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 12 | 38 | 13 | 6 | 19 | 43:58 | -15 | 45 |
L
D
L
L
W
|
|
| 13 | 38 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 46:60 | -14 | 43 |
L
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 14 | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 44:56 | -12 | 43 |
L
W
W
D
L
|
|
| 15 | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 49:57 | -8 | 43 |
D
W
L
D
L
|
|
| 16 | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 47:61 | -14 | 42 |
L
W
W
W
L
|
|
| 17 | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 44:50 | -6 | 42 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 18 | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 47:57 | -10 | 42 |
W
L
L
D
W
|
|
| 19 | 38 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 39:55 | -16 | 41 |
D
L
D
D
L
|
|
| 20 | 38 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 26:60 | -34 | 29 |
L
L
L
D
L
|