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SPAIN › LA LIGA
26.04.2026 12:00
Campo de Futbol de Vallecas
Referee: J. Guzman
Rayo Vallecano
Match Timeline
Real Sociedad
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
-5'
Nobel Mendy
Rayo Vallecano
🟥
-5'
Isi Palazón
Rayo Vallecano
🟨
-5'
Takefusa Kubo
Real Sociedad
⚽
22'
M. Oyarzabal · Assist: A. Barrenetxea
Real Sociedad
VAR
25'
Carlos Martín
Rayo Vallecano
🟨
29'
Isi Palazón
Rayo Vallecano
⚽
30'
S. Camello
Rayo Vallecano
🟨
45+1'
Sergio Gómez
Real Sociedad
🟨
49'
Pathé Ismaël Ciss
Rayo Vallecano
🟨
56'
Orri Steinn Óskarsson
Real Sociedad
🔄
56'
T. Kubo ↔ L. Sucic
Real Sociedad
🔄
56'
A. Barrenetxea ↔ P. Marin
Real Sociedad
⚽
63'
O. Oskarsson · Assist: S. Gomez
Real Sociedad
🔄
64'
C. Martin ↔ P. Diaz
Rayo Vallecano
🔄
64'
N. Mendy ↔ Alemao
Rayo Vallecano
🔄
64'
S. Camello ↔ J. de Frutos
Rayo Vallecano
🔄
67'
O. Oskarsson ↔ J. Gorrotxategi
Real Sociedad
🔄
67'
B. Turrientes ↔ Y. Herrera
Real Sociedad
🔄
68'
I. Palazon ↔ G. Gumbau
Rayo Vallecano
VAR
72'
Pedro Díaz
Rayo Vallecano
🟨
75'
Andrei Rațiu
Rayo Vallecano
⚽
76'
M. Oyarzabal
Real Sociedad
🔄
81'
U. Lopez ↔ F. Perez
Rayo Vallecano
⚽
84'
F. Lejeune
Rayo Vallecano
🟨
90+10'
Alemão
Rayo Vallecano
🟨
90+7'
Florian Lejeune
Rayo Vallecano
🟨
90+7'
Carlos Soler
Real Sociedad
🔄
90+1'
S. Gomez ↔ A. Munoz
Real Sociedad
⚽
90'
Alemao · Assist: P. Diaz
Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 73.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 78.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.8%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
73.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
78.9%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Rayo Vallecano Win 55.8%
Draw 10%
Real Sociedad Win 34.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Rayo Vallecano1.39
Real Sociedad1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano
WWDLW
66 GF / 55 GA
Real Sociedad Real Sociedad
WLDWL
65 GF / 56 GA
Key Stats
1.38
Average Goals Scored
1.63
1.15
Average Goals Conceded
1.4
22
BTTS Yes
29
24
Over 2.5
24
4.63
Shots on Goal
4.73

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 48 matches
Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 40 matches
Rayo Vallecano Statistic Real Sociedad
20 Wins 17
12 Draws 11
16 Losses 12
66 Goals For 65
55 Goals Against 56
1.38 Avg Goals Scored 1.63
1.15 Avg Goals Conceded 1.4
22 BTTS Yes 29
35 Over 1.5 32
24 Over 2.5 24
12 Over 3.5 16
15 Clean Sheets 7
14 Failed To Score 4
4.63 Shots On Goal 4.73
14.06 Total Shots 12.68
6.21 Corners 5.63
53.7% Ball Possession 49%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Real Sociedad's more proactive style and Rayo Vallecano's more cautious structure. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Real Sociedad. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Rayo Vallecano Analysis

Rayo Vallecano sit 12 with 38 points after 32 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 11 draws, and 12 losses, while the 29:38 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. de Frutos (10 goals), A. Garcia (4 goals), I. Palazon (3 goals), with creative support from A. Garcia (5 assists), I. Palazon (3 assists), Andrei Rațiu (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 5 wins, 8 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without D. Mendez, A. Batalla, A. Garcia, the biggest concern is that one of those absentees also contributes heavily in both finishing and chance creation.

Real Sociedad Analysis

From their first 32 matches, Real Sociedad have collected 42 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. The record of 11 wins, 9 draws, and 12 defeats, together with a 49:48 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Oyarzabal (12 goals), G. Guedes (8 goals), B. Mendez (6 goals), with creative support from G. Guedes (4 assists), A. Barrenetxea (4 assists), T. Kubo (4 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with A. Odriozola, I. Ruperez, I. Zubeldia unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Rayo Vallecano won 2 times, Real Sociedad won 5 times, while 8 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:24 from Rayo Vallecano's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90%)
Predicted formations: Rayo Vallecano 4-2-3-1 / Real Sociedad 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Rayo Vallecano 5, Real Sociedad 5
H2H summary: Rayo Vallecano wins 2, draws 8, Real Sociedad wins 5

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 31 1 6 95:36 59 94
L W L W W
2 38 27 5 6 77:35 42 86
W W W L W
3 38 22 6 10 72:46 26 72
W L L D W
4 38 21 6 11 62:44 18 69
L W W L W
5 38 15 15 8 59:48 11 60
W L W D W
6 38 14 12 12 53:48 5 54
W D L W W
7 38 15 6 17 32:38 -6 51
W L W D L
8 38 12 14 12 41:44 -3 50
W W D D W
9 38 13 10 15 46:55 -9 49
W W D W L
10 38 11 13 14 59:61 -2 46
D L D D L
11 38 12 10 16 43:55 -12 46
D W W L L
12 38 13 6 19 43:58 -15 45
L D L L W
13 38 12 7 19 46:60 -14 43
L L W W W
14 38 11 10 17 44:56 -12 43
L W W D L
15 38 10 13 15 49:57 -8 43
D W L D L
16 38 11 9 18 47:61 -14 42
L W W W L
17 38 11 9 18 44:50 -6 42
L L L L L
18 38 11 9 18 47:57 -10 42
W L L D W
19 38 9 14 15 39:55 -16 41
D L D D L
20 38 6 11 21 26:60 -34 29
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2