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SPAIN › LA LIGA
23.04.2026 18:00
Campo de Futbol de Vallecas
Referee: A. Cordero
Rayo Vallecano
Match Timeline
Espanyol
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
-5'
Augusto Batalla
Rayo Vallecano
🟨
2'
Pere Milla
Espanyol
🟨
19'
Pol Lozano
Espanyol
🔄
46'
P. Lozano ↔ C. Pickel
Espanyol
🟨
50'
Pathé Ismaël Ciss
Rayo Vallecano
🔄
58'
Pacha ↔ I. Akhomach
Rayo Vallecano
🔄
67'
R. Fernandez Jaen ↔ R. Terrats
Espanyol
🟨
75'
Leandro Cabrera
Espanyol
🔄
76'
O. Valentin ↔ U. Lopez
Rayo Vallecano
🔄
76'
Alemao ↔ G. Gumbau
Rayo Vallecano
🔄
78'
T. Dolan ↔ C. Ngonge
Espanyol
🔄
78'
F. Calero ↔ C. Riedel
Espanyol
🔄
81'
J. Vertrouwd ↔ A. Mumin
Rayo Vallecano
🔄
81'
P. Diaz ↔ S. Camello
Rayo Vallecano
🟨
83'
Cyril Ngonge
Espanyol
⚽
87'
S. Camello · Assist: I. Akhomach
Rayo Vallecano
🔄
90+1'
P. Milla ↔ M. Rubio
Espanyol

Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 64.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.9%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
64.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Rayo Vallecano Win 57.9%
Draw 0%
Espanyol Win 42.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Rayo Vallecano1.44
Espanyol1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano
WWDLW
65 GF / 55 GA
Espanyol Espanyol
WLDWL
39 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
1.38
Average Goals Scored
1.18
1.17
Average Goals Conceded
1.52
22
BTTS Yes
20
24
Over 2.5
18
4.6
Shots on Goal
3.91

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 47 matches
Espanyol Espanyol 33 matches
Rayo Vallecano Statistic Espanyol
19 Wins 11
12 Draws 8
16 Losses 14
65 Goals For 39
55 Goals Against 50
1.38 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
1.17 Avg Goals Conceded 1.52
22 BTTS Yes 20
35 Over 1.5 25
24 Over 2.5 18
12 Over 3.5 9
14 Clean Sheets 8
14 Failed To Score 7
4.6 Shots On Goal 3.91
14 Total Shots 12.36
6.21 Corners 4.7
53.8% Ball Possession 41.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Rayo Vallecano appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Espanyol. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Espanyol. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Rayo Vallecano expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Espanyol in 4-4-1-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Espanyol having the stronger overall control. Espanyol arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Rayo Vallecano Analysis

From their first 31 matches, Rayo Vallecano have collected 35 points and now occupy 13 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 11 draws, and 12 losses, while the 29:38 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. de Frutos (10 goals), A. Garcia (4 goals), I. Palazon (3 goals), with creative support from A. Garcia (5 assists), I. Palazon (3 assists), Andrei Rațiu (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 5 wins, 8 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with D. Mendez, N. Mendy, F. Perez, F. Lejeune unavailable.

Espanyol Analysis

With 38 points from 31 games and a place of 10, Espanyol still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 10 wins, 8 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 37:48 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on K. Garcia (6 goals), P. Milla (6 goals), R. Fernandez Jaen (6 goals), with creative support from Exposito (6 assists), T. Dolan (4 assists), R. Fernandez Jaen (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with J. Puado, U. Gonzalez unavailable.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Rayo Vallecano won 8 times, Espanyol won 6 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:17 from Rayo Vallecano's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Rayo Vallecano 4-2-3-1 / Espanyol 4-4-1-1
Missing players: Rayo Vallecano 8, Espanyol 2
H2H summary: Rayo Vallecano wins 8, draws 1, Espanyol wins 6

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 31 1 6 95:36 59 94
L W L W W
2 38 27 5 6 77:35 42 86
W W W L W
3 38 22 6 10 72:46 26 72
W L L D W
4 38 21 6 11 62:44 18 69
L W W L W
5 38 15 15 8 59:48 11 60
W L W D W
6 38 14 12 12 53:48 5 54
W D L W W
7 38 15 6 17 32:38 -6 51
W L W D L
8 38 12 14 12 41:44 -3 50
W W D D W
9 38 13 10 15 46:55 -9 49
W W D W L
10 38 11 13 14 59:61 -2 46
D L D D L
11 38 12 10 16 43:55 -12 46
D W W L L
12 38 13 6 19 43:58 -15 45
L D L L W
13 38 12 7 19 46:60 -14 43
L L W W W
14 38 11 10 17 44:56 -12 43
L W W D L
15 38 10 13 15 49:57 -8 43
D W L D L
16 38 11 9 18 47:61 -14 42
L W W W L
17 38 11 9 18 44:50 -6 42
L L L L L
18 38 11 9 18 47:57 -10 42
W L L D W
19 38 9 14 15 39:55 -16 41
D L D D L
20 38 6 11 21 26:60 -34 29
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2