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POLAND › EKSTRAKLASA
11.09.2026 16:00
Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków w Częstochowie
Referee: Szymon Marciniak, Poland
Raków Częstochowa
Match Timeline
Motor Lublin
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
31'
Karol Struski
Raków Częstochowa
⚽
34'
K. Lukoszek · Assist: I. Rodrigues
Motor Lublin
⚽
42'
P. Makuch · Assist: M. Bulat
Raków Częstochowa
🔄
61'
K. Struski ↔ V. Kochergin
Raków Częstochowa
🔄
62'
Fabio Ronaldo ↔ M. Aiko
Motor Lublin
🔄
76'
M. Bulat ↔ A. Basse
Raków Częstochowa
⚽
77'
P. Makuch · Assist: V. Kochergin
Raków Częstochowa
🔄
80'
M. Legowski ↔ Kikis
Motor Lublin
🔄
80'
M. Ndiaye ↔ Rony Lopes
Motor Lublin
🟨
81'
Wladyslaw Kocherhin
Raków Częstochowa
🔄
87'
M. Emreli ↔ O. Abraham
Raków Częstochowa
🔄
87'
J. C. Silva ↔ M. Perovic
Raków Częstochowa
🔄
87'
K. Lukoszek ↔ P. Meyer
Motor Lublin
🔄
87'
F. Luberecki ↔ M. Posmyk
Motor Lublin

Raków Częstochowa vs Motor Lublin Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 72.3%
Odds 3.61
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.9%
Odds 1.53
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.56
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
72.3%
3.61 ▥
BTTS Yes
78.9%
1.53 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.56 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
82.5%
1.51 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
9.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
13.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Raków Częstochowa Win 17.8%
Draw 9.9%
Motor Lublin Win 72.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Raków Częstochowa1.63
Motor Lublin1.95
Recent Form (Last 5)
Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa
WWDLW
43 GF / 37 GA
Motor Lublin Motor Lublin
WLDWL
29 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.79
Average Goals Scored
2.23
1.54
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
18
BTTS Yes
10
16
Over 2.5
9
3.17
Shots on Goal
4.29

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa 24 matches
Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 13 matches
Raków Częstochowa Statistic Motor Lublin
8 Wins 7
6 Draws 2
10 Losses 4
43 Goals For 29
37 Goals Against 18
1.79 Avg Goals Scored 2.23
1.54 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
18 BTTS Yes 10
21 Over 1.5 12
16 Over 2.5 9
10 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 2
2 Failed To Score 1
3.17 Shots On Goal 4.29
8.5 Total Shots 14.57
3.42 Corners 4.29
39.2% Ball Possession 45.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Motor Lublin. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Raków Częstochowa expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Motor Lublin in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Motor Lublin having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Motor Lublin carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 15 with 5 points while Raków Częstochowa sit 18 on 0, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Raków Częstochowa Analysis

Raków Częstochowa sit 18 with 0 points after 5 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 6:13, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through Mahir Emreli (2 goals), Patryk Makuch (2 goals), Jakub Jendryka (1 goals), with creative support from Mahir Emreli (1 assists), Jean Carlos Silva (1 assists), Wladyslaw Kocherhin (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Motor Lublin Analysis

With 5 points from 6 games and a place of 15, Motor Lublin still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats with a 6:10 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Karol Czubak (3 goals), with creative support from Mbaye Ndiaye (2 assists), Ivo Rodrigues (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Raków Częstochowa won 3 times, Motor Lublin won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:3 from Raków Częstochowa's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.1%)
Predicted formations: Raków Częstochowa 3-4-3 / Motor Lublin 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Raków Częstochowa wins 3, draws 2, Motor Lublin wins 0

Standings

Ekstraklasa
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 7 1 1 16:8 8 22
D W W W W
2 9 5 4 0 19:8 11 19
W D W D D
3 8 6 1 1 17:7 10 19
W L W W W
4 9 5 2 2 17:12 5 17
W W D W D
5 9 5 0 4 20:14 6 15
W W L L W
6 8 4 3 1 12:6 6 15
W W D D D
7 9 4 3 2 12:10 2 15
W L W D W
8 10 4 3 3 12:13 -1 15
L L W W D
9 9 4 1 4 16:15 1 13
L W W W D
10 8 4 0 4 12:13 -1 12
L L W L W
11 10 3 2 5 12:15 -3 11
W L L L L
12 9 3 2 4 9:15 -6 11
L W W D L
13 9 1 6 2 13:13 0 9
D D D L D
14 9 2 2 5 14:17 -3 8
W D L D L
15 9 2 2 5 7:20 -13 8
L L D W D
16 9 1 3 5 11:15 -4 6
L L L D D
17 9 1 3 5 9:15 -6 6
D L L L D
18 10 1 0 9 13:25 -12 3
L L L W L
Qualifying
EL Qualification
Play-offs
Relegation