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CHINA › SUPER LEAGUE
22.08.2026 12:00
Qingdao Guzhenkou University City Sports Center
Referee: P. Gao
Qingdao Youth Island
Match Timeline
Shandong Luneng
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟥
-5'
Xinli Peng
Qingdao Youth Island
⚽
5'
A. Yakubu · Assist: N. Da Luz
Qingdao Youth Island
🟨
45'
Wenneng Xie
Shandong Luneng
🔄
46'
Chen Pu ↔ Mijit Mewlan
Shandong Luneng
🔄
46'
Huang Zhengyu ↔ Memet Imran
Shandong Luneng
🔄
60'
Yang Ruiqi ↔ R. Merkies
Shandong Luneng
🔄
69'
Peng Xinli ↔ Meng Jingchao
Qingdao Youth Island
🔄
72'
Gao Zhunyi ↔ Peng Xiao
Shandong Luneng
🔄
73'
Xie Wenneng ↔ Y. Peng
Shandong Luneng
🟨
74'
Guilherme Madruga
Shandong Luneng
🔄
74'
Zhang Chengdong ↔ Lohman Elnizar
Qingdao Youth Island
🔄
80'
Wang Gengrui ↔ He Longhai
Qingdao Youth Island
🔄
80'
A. Yakubu ↔ Nan Song
Qingdao Youth Island
⚽
82'
Davidson
Qingdao Youth Island
🟨
89'
Guilherme Madruga
Shandong Luneng
🟥
89'
Guilherme Madruga
Shandong Luneng

Qingdao Youth Island vs Shandong Luneng Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
58.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.1%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Qingdao Youth Island Win 53.1%
Draw 13.4%
Shandong Luneng Win 33.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Qingdao Youth Island1.31
Shandong Luneng1.61
Recent Form (Last 5)
Qingdao Youth Island Qingdao Youth Island
WWDLW
27 GF / 32 GA
Shandong Luneng Shandong Luneng
WLDWL
42 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
1.08
Average Goals Scored
1.83
1.28
Average Goals Conceded
1.65
15
BTTS Yes
17
8
Over 2.5
17
3.48
Shots on Goal
4.96

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Qingdao Youth Island Qingdao Youth Island 25 matches
Shandong Luneng Shandong Luneng 23 matches
Qingdao Youth Island Statistic Shandong Luneng
7 Wins 12
13 Draws 3
5 Losses 8
27 Goals For 42
32 Goals Against 38
1.08 Avg Goals Scored 1.83
1.28 Avg Goals Conceded 1.65
15 BTTS Yes 17
19 Over 1.5 20
8 Over 2.5 17
6 Over 3.5 10
7 Clean Sheets 3
7 Failed To Score 3
3.48 Shots On Goal 4.96
10.78 Total Shots 14.04
4.26 Corners 4.3
44.7% Ball Possession 49.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Shandong Luneng's more proactive style and Qingdao Youth Island's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Shandong Luneng. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Qingdao Youth Island expected to line up in 4-4-1-1 and Shandong Luneng in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Shandong Luneng having the stronger overall control.

Qingdao Youth Island Analysis

Qingdao Youth Island come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 33 points from 23 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 12 draws, and 4 losses, while the 26:29 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Samir Memisevic (1 goals), Xinli Peng (1 goals), Nelson Luz (1 goals), with creative support from Davidson (1 assists), Yu Dong (1 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 4 wins, 8 draws, and 0 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Shandong Luneng Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 33 points from 23 games, Shandong Luneng bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 12 wins, 3 draws, and 8 defeats, together with goals at 42:38, reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through Cryzan (1 goals), with creative support from Songchen Shi (1 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Qingdao Youth Island won 2 times, Shandong Luneng won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:16 from Qingdao Youth Island's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.88 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.6%)
Predicted formations: Qingdao Youth Island 4-4-1-1 / Shandong Luneng 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Qingdao Youth Island wins 2, draws 2, Shandong Luneng wins 4

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 7 4 51:30 21 52
D W L W L
2 26 12 4 10 38:42 -4 40
W D W D L
3 26 11 10 5 49:33 16 38
D D D W W
4 26 11 5 10 54:51 3 38
W L D W W
5 26 8 14 4 31:32 -1 38
D D W D D
6 26 13 4 9 46:43 3 37
D W L W W
7 26 10 8 8 40:33 7 33
D W W D W
8 26 12 5 9 52:46 6 31
W L W L W
9 26 7 10 9 27:32 -5 31
L D L D L
10 26 10 6 10 45:43 2 31
W L W D L
11 26 8 4 14 34:45 -11 28
D L D W L
12 26 8 9 9 33:35 -2 27
D D D D L
13 26 7 4 15 34:47 -13 25
L L L D L
14 26 9 8 9 36:32 4 25
W W D D L
15 26 5 11 10 39:46 -7 21
L D D W D
16 26 6 3 17 34:53 -19 14
L L L L L
AFC Champions League Elite League Stage
AFC Champions League 2 Group Stage
Relegation