Ponte Preta vs São Bernardo Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away Win |
62.9%
|
1.30 | |
| BTTS | Yes |
71.2%
|
11.00 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
52.4%
|
1.67 | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
1.83 | |
| HT / FT | Draw / Away |
-
|
3.75 | |
| Correct Score | 1-2 |
-
|
9.00 |
Ponte Preta
São Bernardo
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Ponte Preta
25 matches
São Bernardo
25 matches
| Ponte Preta | Statistic | São Bernardo |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Wins | 8 |
| 4 | Draws | 8 |
| 19 | Losses | 9 |
| 16 | Goals For | 34 |
| 52 | Goals Against | 29 |
| 0.64 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.36 |
| 2.08 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.16 |
| 12 | BTTS Yes | 16 |
| 21 | Over 1.5 | 18 |
| 12 | Over 2.5 | 12 |
| 5 | Over 3.5 | 5 |
| 2 | Clean Sheets | 5 |
| 12 | Failed To Score | 5 |
| 3.32 | Shots On Goal | 4.32 |
| 10.44 | Total Shots | 11.92 |
| 4.72 | Corners | 4.76 |
| 42.4% | Ball Possession | 49% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by São Bernardo's more proactive style and Ponte Preta's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Ponte Preta have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ponte Preta expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and São Bernardo in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward São Bernardo having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward São Bernardo. São Bernardo carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 14 with 32 points while Ponte Preta sit 20 on 10, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.
Ponte Preta sit 20 with 10 points after 24 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 18 defeats with a 16:50 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Elvis (2 goals), Brandão (2 goals), William Pottker (2 goals), with creative support from Elvis (3 assists), Diego Tavares (3 assists), Brandão (1 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.
São Bernardo sit 14 with 32 points after 25 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 9 defeats with a 34:29 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Pedro Vitor (3 goals), Rodrigo Ferreira (3 goals), Pedrinho (3 goals), with creative support from Romisson (4 assists), Dudu Miraíma (3 assists), Pedro Vitor (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 6 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.
Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Ponte Preta won 0 times, São Bernardo won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:11 from Ponte Preta's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 37:19 | 18 | 59 |
W
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 2 | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 44:31 | 13 | 58 |
D
W
W
W
D
|
|
| 3 | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 54:27 | 27 | 57 |
W
W
D
L
D
|
|
| 4 | 32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 37:27 | 10 | 56 |
W
D
D
W
D
|
|
| 5 | 32 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 33:28 | 5 | 53 |
L
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 6 | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 40:30 | 10 | 52 |
L
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 7 | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 49:45 | 4 | 51 |
W
L
W
L
W
|
|
| 8 | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 44:34 | 10 | 50 |
W
W
L
W
L
|
|
| 9 | 32 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 44:43 | 1 | 48 |
L
L
D
W
D
|
|
| 10 | 32 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 32:25 | 7 | 47 |
D
W
L
W
D
|
|
| 11 | 32 | 13 | 6 | 13 | 32:40 | -8 | 45 |
W
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 12 |
São Bernardo
Away
|
32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 44:34 | 10 | 45 |
L
W
D
W
W
|
| 13 | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 39:40 | -1 | 42 |
L
D
W
L
D
|
|
| 14 | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 35:39 | -4 | 42 |
W
W
D
W
D
|
|
| 15 | 32 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 38:37 | 1 | 42 |
L
L
D
D
W
|
|
| 16 | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 36:38 | -2 | 38 |
W
L
W
D
L
|
|
| 17 | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 32:43 | -11 | 33 |
W
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 18 | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 40:47 | -7 | 28 |
L
L
L
L
W
|
|
| 19 | 32 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 21:53 | -32 | 17 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 20 |
Ponte Preta
Home
|
32 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 17:68 | -51 | 13 |
L
L
L
W
L
|