Login Register
BRAZIL › SERIE B
06.09.2026 21:30
Moisés Lucarelli
Referee: E. Batista
Ponte Preta
Match Timeline
São Bernardo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
45'
Rodrigo Ferreira
São Bernardo
🔄
63'
Gustavo Almeida ↔ M. Souza
Ponte Preta
🟨
66'
Sergio Palacios
Ponte Preta
🟨
66'
Jemerson
São Bernardo
🔄
69'
Para ↔ Mario Sergio
São Bernardo
🔄
69'
Romisson ↔ Lucas Fernandes
São Bernardo
🟥
76'
Sergio Palacios
Ponte Preta
⚽
79'
Mario Sergio · Assist: Pedro Vitor
São Bernardo
🟨
80'
David da Hora
Ponte Preta
🔄
80'
Felipe Garcia ↔ Leo Jaba
São Bernardo
🔄
80'
Pedro Vitor ↔ Lucas Rian
São Bernardo
🔄
82'
Murilo ↔ Juan Rodrigues
Ponte Preta
🔄
82'
Miguel Morais ↔ Joao Damiao
Ponte Preta
🟨
84'
Rodrigo Ferreira
São Bernardo
🔄
84'
Dudu Miraima ↔ Marcao Silva
São Bernardo
🔄
88'
Danilo Barcelos ↔ Nicolas Araujo
Ponte Preta

Ponte Preta vs São Bernardo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 62.9%
Odds 1.30
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 11.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds 1.67
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
62.9%
1.30 ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
11.00 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
1.67 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.83 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
3.75 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Ponte Preta Win 16.1%
Draw 21%
São Bernardo Win 62.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ponte Preta0.85
São Bernardo1.65
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta
WWDLW
16 GF / 52 GA
São Bernardo São Bernardo
WLDWL
34 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
0.64
Average Goals Scored
1.36
2.08
Average Goals Conceded
1.16
12
BTTS Yes
16
12
Over 2.5
12
3.32
Shots on Goal
4.32

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 25 matches
São Bernardo São Bernardo 25 matches
Ponte Preta Statistic São Bernardo
2 Wins 8
4 Draws 8
19 Losses 9
16 Goals For 34
52 Goals Against 29
0.64 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
2.08 Avg Goals Conceded 1.16
12 BTTS Yes 16
21 Over 1.5 18
12 Over 2.5 12
5 Over 3.5 5
2 Clean Sheets 5
12 Failed To Score 5
3.32 Shots On Goal 4.32
10.44 Total Shots 11.92
4.72 Corners 4.76
42.4% Ball Possession 49%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by São Bernardo's more proactive style and Ponte Preta's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Ponte Preta have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ponte Preta expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and São Bernardo in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward São Bernardo having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward São Bernardo. São Bernardo carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 14 with 32 points while Ponte Preta sit 20 on 10, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Ponte Preta Analysis

Ponte Preta sit 20 with 10 points after 24 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 18 defeats with a 16:50 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Elvis (2 goals), Brandão (2 goals), William Pottker (2 goals), with creative support from Elvis (3 assists), Diego Tavares (3 assists), Brandão (1 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

São Bernardo Analysis

São Bernardo sit 14 with 32 points after 25 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 9 defeats with a 34:29 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Pedro Vitor (3 goals), Rodrigo Ferreira (3 goals), Pedrinho (3 goals), with creative support from Romisson (4 assists), Dudu Miraíma (3 assists), Pedro Vitor (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 6 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Ponte Preta won 0 times, São Bernardo won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:11 from Ponte Preta's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (83.9%)
Predicted formations: Ponte Preta 3-4-2-1 / São Bernardo 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Ponte Preta wins 0, draws 1, São Bernardo wins 4

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 17 8 7 37:19 18 59
W W W L L
2 32 17 7 8 44:31 13 58
D W W W D
3 32 16 9 7 54:27 27 57
W W D L D
4 32 15 11 6 37:27 10 56
W D D W D
5 32 15 8 9 33:28 5 53
L W W L L
6 32 14 10 8 40:30 10 52
L W W L W
7 32 15 6 11 49:45 4 51
W L W L W
8 32 13 11 8 44:34 10 50
W W L W L
9 32 13 9 10 44:43 1 48
L L D W D
10 32 11 14 7 32:25 7 47
D W L W D
11 32 13 6 13 32:40 -8 45
W L L W W
12 32 12 9 11 44:34 10 45
L W D W W
13 32 11 9 12 39:40 -1 42
L D W L D
14 32 11 9 12 35:39 -4 42
W W D W D
15 32 10 12 10 38:37 1 42
L L D D W
16 32 10 8 14 36:38 -2 38
W L W D L
17 32 9 6 17 32:43 -11 33
W L L L D
18 32 7 7 18 40:47 -7 28
L L L L W
19 32 4 5 23 21:53 -32 17
L L L L L
20 32 3 4 25 17:68 -51 13
L L L W L
Promotion
Promotion Play-offs
Relegation