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ENGLAND › LEAGUE ONE
26.09.2026 14:00
Home Park
Referee: S. Mather
Plymouth
Match Timeline
Burton Albion
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
23'
Curtis Tilt
Burton Albion
🔄
45'
Kain Adom ↔ Matthew Dennis
Burton Albion
🟨
56'
Will Evans
Plymouth
🔄
59'
Will Evans ↔ Caleb Watts
Plymouth
🔄
59'
Matthew Sorinola ↔ Joe Edwards
Plymouth
🟨
60'
Ronan Curtis
Plymouth
🟨
65'
Matthew Dennis
Burton Albion
🔄
70'
Ronan Curtis ↔ Xavier Amaechi
Plymouth
🔄
70'
Tyreeq Bakinson ↔ Bradley Ibrahim
Plymouth
⚽
70'
Jack Armer
Burton Albion
🔄
74'
Julio Pleguezuelo ↔ Mathias Ross Jensen
Plymouth
🟨
83'
Sulyman Krubally
Burton Albion
🟨
86'
Mathias Ross Jensen
Plymouth
🔄
87'
Kgagelo Chauke ↔ Sulyman Krubally
Burton Albion

Plymouth vs Burton Albion Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 66.6%
Odds 1.52
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.70
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.61
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
66.6%
1.52 ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.70 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.61 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
86.1%
1.83 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.38 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Plymouth Win 66.6%
Draw 5.4%
Burton Albion Win 28%
Expected Goals (xG)
Plymouth1.82
Burton Albion1.07
Recent Form (Last 5)
Plymouth Plymouth
WWDLW
27 GF / 12 GA
Burton Albion Burton Albion
WLDWL
14 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
2.08
Average Goals Scored
1.17
0.92
Average Goals Conceded
1.42
6
BTTS Yes
7
7
Over 2.5
7
5.14
Shots on Goal
3.14

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Plymouth Plymouth 13 matches
Burton Albion Burton Albion 12 matches
Plymouth Statistic Burton Albion
9 Wins 3
2 Draws 5
2 Losses 4
27 Goals For 14
12 Goals Against 17
2.08 Avg Goals Scored 1.17
0.92 Avg Goals Conceded 1.42
6 BTTS Yes 7
10 Over 1.5 9
7 Over 2.5 7
5 Over 3.5 3
6 Clean Sheets 2
2 Failed To Score 4
5.14 Shots On Goal 3.14
14.57 Total Shots 9.57
6 Corners 3
40.9% Ball Possession 44.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Plymouth's more proactive style and Burton Albion's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Burton Albion. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Plymouth expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Burton Albion in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Burton Albion having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Plymouth Analysis

Plymouth sit 7 with 10 points after 6 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, while the 10:8 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on W. Evans (2 goals), A. Pepple (2 goals), H. White (1 goals), with creative support from H. White (1 assists), Julio Pleguezuelo (1 assists), C. Watts (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Burton Albion Analysis

Burton Albion sit 11 with 8 points after 6 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, while the 10:10 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on F. Delap (2 goals), C. Webster (1 goals), K. Chauke (1 goals), with creative support from K. Lofthouse (3 assists), J. Armer (1 assists), Sulyman Krubally (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Plymouth won 5 times, Burton Albion won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:13 from Plymouth's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.6%)
Predicted formations: Plymouth 4-4-2 / Burton Albion 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Plymouth wins 5, draws 6, Burton Albion wins 4

Standings

League One
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 5 1 3 16:11 5 16
W L W W W
2 8 5 1 2 8:5 3 16
D W W W L
3 8 4 3 1 14:7 7 15
W L D D W
4 7 4 2 1 13:6 7 14
D D W W W
5 8 4 1 3 17:10 7 13
W D L W L
6 8 3 4 1 13:11 2 13
D D W D W
7 8 3 3 2 17:10 7 12
D D W L W
8 9 3 3 3 14:15 -1 12
L W D L D
9 8 3 3 2 6:8 -2 12
D D W W L
10 6 3 2 1 13:7 6 11
D W W L W
11 8 3 1 4 13:11 2 10
L W L D W
12 8 2 4 2 13:16 -3 10
D W W D L
13 7 2 3 2 11:8 3 9
L W W D D
14 7 2 3 2 9:11 -2 9
D W L W D
15 7 2 2 3 13:13 0 8
L D L L W
16 7 2 2 3 12:14 -2 8
L L D W L
17 7 2 2 3 10:13 -3 8
D D L L W
18 7 2 2 3 7:12 -5 8
D L L W W
19 7 2 2 3 8:18 -10 8
W D L L L
20 7 1 4 2 7:9 -2 7
L L D D W
21 7 1 3 3 8:9 -1 6
W L L D D
22 7 0 6 1 8:10 -2 6
D D D L D
23 8 1 2 5 4:13 -9 5
L L D L D
24 7 1 1 5 5:12 -7 4
L D L W L
Promotion - Championship
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two