ENGLAND › LEAGUE ONE
10.10.2026 11:30
Home Park

Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64.8%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Plymouth Win 64.8%
Draw 7%
AFC Wimbledon Win 28.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Plymouth1.56
AFC Wimbledon0.9
Recent Form (Last 5)
Plymouth Plymouth
WWDLW
29 GF / 13 GA
AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon
WLDWL
12 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
1.93
Average Goals Scored
0.92
0.87
Average Goals Conceded
1
6
BTTS Yes
4
7
Over 2.5
4
5.11
Shots on Goal
2.63

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Plymouth Plymouth 15 matches
AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 13 matches
Plymouth Statistic AFC Wimbledon
10 Wins 5
2 Draws 4
3 Losses 4
29 Goals For 12
13 Goals Against 13
1.93 Avg Goals Scored 0.92
0.87 Avg Goals Conceded 1
6 BTTS Yes 4
11 Over 1.5 7
7 Over 2.5 4
5 Over 3.5 2
7 Clean Sheets 7
3 Failed To Score 5
5.11 Shots On Goal 2.63
14.56 Total Shots 10.5
5.78 Corners 5
42.9% Ball Possession 45.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Plymouth's more proactive style and AFC Wimbledon's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring AFC Wimbledon. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Plymouth expected to line up in 4-4-2 and AFC Wimbledon in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward AFC Wimbledon having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Plymouth Analysis

Plymouth approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 13 points after 8 outings. With 4 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats plus a goal balance of 14:11, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by A. Pepple (3 goals), O. Irow (3 goals), H. White (2 goals), with creative support from H. White (1 assists), Julio Pleguezuelo (1 assists), R. Curtis (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

AFC Wimbledon Analysis

So far, AFC Wimbledon have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 12 points from 8 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, while the 6:8 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Stockley (3 goals), M. Hippolyte (3 goals), with creative support from J. Tilley (2 assists), J. Stockley (1 assists), A. Yiadom (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Plymouth won 8 times, AFC Wimbledon won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:22 from Plymouth's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93%)
Predicted formations: Plymouth 4-4-2 / AFC Wimbledon 5-4-1
H2H summary: Plymouth wins 8, draws 2, AFC Wimbledon wins 5

Standings

League One
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 5 1 3 16:11 5 16
W L W W W
2 8 5 1 2 8:5 3 16
D W W W L
3 8 4 3 1 14:7 7 15
W L D D W
4 7 4 2 1 13:6 7 14
D D W W W
5 8 4 1 3 17:10 7 13
W D L W L
6 8 3 4 1 13:11 2 13
D D W D W
7 8 3 3 2 17:10 7 12
D D W L W
8 9 3 3 3 14:15 -1 12
L W D L D
9 8 3 3 2 6:8 -2 12
D D W W L
10 6 3 2 1 13:7 6 11
D W W L W
11 8 3 1 4 13:11 2 10
L W L D W
12 8 2 4 2 13:16 -3 10
D W W D L
13 7 2 3 2 11:8 3 9
L W W D D
14 7 2 3 2 9:11 -2 9
D W L W D
15 7 2 2 3 13:13 0 8
L D L L W
16 7 2 2 3 12:14 -2 8
L L D W L
17 7 2 2 3 10:13 -3 8
D D L L W
18 7 2 2 3 7:12 -5 8
D L L W W
19 7 2 2 3 8:18 -10 8
W D L L L
20 7 1 4 2 7:9 -2 7
L L D D W
21 7 1 3 3 8:9 -1 6
W L L D D
22 7 0 6 1 8:10 -2 6
D D D L D
23 8 1 2 5 4:13 -9 5
L L D L D
24 7 1 1 5 5:12 -7 4
L D L W L
Promotion - Championship
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two