🇺🇸 USA › MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
10.10.2026 23:30
Subaru Park

Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 87.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
87.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
58.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Philadelphia Union Win 87.9%
Draw 4.9%
Real Salt Lake Win 7.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Philadelphia Union1.91
Real Salt Lake1.55
Recent Form (Last 5)
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union
WWDLW
76 GF / 53 GA
Real Salt Lake Real Salt Lake
WLDWL
50 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
2.11
Average Goals Scored
1.61
1.47
Average Goals Conceded
1.61
22
BTTS Yes
22
23
Over 2.5
21
5.29
Shots on Goal
5.22

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 36 matches
Real Salt Lake Real Salt Lake 31 matches
Philadelphia Union Statistic Real Salt Lake
15 Wins 11
8 Draws 7
13 Losses 13
76 Goals For 50
53 Goals Against 50
2.11 Avg Goals Scored 1.61
1.47 Avg Goals Conceded 1.61
22 BTTS Yes 22
30 Over 1.5 29
23 Over 2.5 21
16 Over 3.5 10
10 Clean Sheets 3
6 Failed To Score 6
5.29 Shots On Goal 5.22
16.13 Total Shots 13.81
6 Corners 4.81
47.9% Ball Possession 48.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Philadelphia Union's more proactive style and Real Salt Lake's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Philadelphia Union expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Real Salt Lake in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Real Salt Lake having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Real Salt Lake. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Philadelphia Union come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Philadelphia Union Analysis

So far, Philadelphia Union have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 39 points from 27 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 11 wins, 6 draws, and 10 losses, while the 54:44 goal ratio supports the view of very strong form and are on a winning streak. Going forward they rely heavily on M. Iloski (14 goals), B. Damiani (8 goals), Cavan Sullivan (6 goals), with creative support from I. Vassilev (5 assists), Frankie Westfield (5 assists), Cavan Sullivan (4 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Real Salt Lake Analysis

Real Salt Lake approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 11 with 32 points from 27 matches. The overall return of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 13 defeats with a 40:44 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on S. Solans (6 goals), Zavier Gozo (4 goals), D. Luna (4 goals), with creative support from S. Solans (3 assists), M. Guilavogui (3 assists), Zavier Gozo (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Philadelphia Union won 1 times, Real Salt Lake won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:17 from Philadelphia Union's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.1%)
Predicted formations: Philadelphia Union 4-4-2 / Real Salt Lake 3-4-3
H2H summary: Philadelphia Union wins 1, draws 4, Real Salt Lake wins 4

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 18 6 3 55:21 34 60
W W D L D
2 27 14 4 9 45:36 9 46
L W W W L
3 27 12 10 5 64:50 14 46
L D D D D
4 27 12 7 8 47:38 9 43
L W D W D
5 26 12 6 8 46:38 8 42
W L L D D
6 27 11 6 10 54:44 10 39
W W W W W
7 27 10 4 13 48:64 -16 34
L L W W W
8 27 9 6 12 34:51 -17 33
L W W L D
9 27 8 9 10 41:36 5 33
D L W L D
10 26 8 9 9 55:64 -9 33
L D D L L
11 26 6 12 8 34:42 -8 30
D L D W D
12 27 8 5 14 39:43 -4 29
W W L L W
13 27 6 11 10 39:51 -12 29
L L L W D
14 27 7 6 14 32:45 -13 27
D W D L D
15 27 6 6 15 34:54 -20 24
W L L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)