Penarol vs Progreso Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
74.2%
|
- | |
| BTTS | Yes |
75.1%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
77.2%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Under 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
- |
Penarol
Progreso
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Penarol
38 matches
Progreso
31 matches
| Penarol | Statistic | Progreso |
|---|---|---|
| 20 | Wins | 8 |
| 9 | Draws | 4 |
| 9 | Losses | 19 |
| 59 | Goals For | 27 |
| 34 | Goals Against | 46 |
| 1.55 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.87 |
| 0.89 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.48 |
| 21 | BTTS Yes | 14 |
| 29 | Over 1.5 | 20 |
| 17 | Over 2.5 | 14 |
| 7 | Over 3.5 | 5 |
| 11 | Clean Sheets | 4 |
| 7 | Failed To Score | 13 |
| 2.64 | Shots On Goal | 1 |
| 8.45 | Total Shots | 2.67 |
| 2.45 | Corners | 1.33 |
| 28.5% | Ball Possession | 15.7% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Penarol's more proactive style and Progreso's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Penarol arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 59 points compared to Progreso in 15 on 28, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Progreso.
Operating from 1 place with 59 points from 30 games, Penarol bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 18 wins, 6 draws, and 6 defeats, together with goals at 49:25, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained very solid. At home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, which underlines an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.
Progreso sit 15 with 28 points after 30 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 18 losses, together with goals at 25:43, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Penarol
Home
|
31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 50:25 | 25 | 62 |
W
D
W
W
W
|
| 2 | 31 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 49:27 | 22 | 58 |
W
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 3 | 31 | 16 | 6 | 9 | 52:37 | 15 | 54 |
L
D
L
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 31 | 14 | 11 | 6 | 36:25 | 11 | 53 |
L
L
D
W
L
|
|
| 5 | 31 | 16 | 4 | 11 | 47:38 | 9 | 52 |
W
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 6 | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 40:36 | 4 | 50 |
W
W
D
D
L
|
|
| 7 | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 42:30 | 12 | 49 |
W
W
D
L
W
|
|
| 8 | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 32:42 | -10 | 38 |
L
L
L
D
D
|
|
| 9 | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 41:42 | -1 | 37 |
W
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 10 | 31 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 35:39 | -4 | 37 |
D
D
W
D
D
|
|
| 11 | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 28:36 | -8 | 35 |
L
W
L
W
D
|
|
| 12 | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 29:36 | -7 | 33 |
L
L
L
D
L
|
|
| 13 | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 23:45 | -22 | 33 |
L
D
L
W
W
|
|
| 14 | 31 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 29:42 | -13 | 31 |
D
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 15 | 31 | 5 | 14 | 12 | 26:40 | -14 | 29 |
W
L
D
D
L
|
|
| 16 |
Progreso
Away
|
31 | 8 | 4 | 19 | 27:46 | -19 | 28 |
L
W
W
L
W
|