Login Register
10.10.2026 21:00

Penarol vs Progreso Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Penarol Win 74.2%
Draw 3.6%
Progreso Win 22.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Penarol1.52
Progreso0.88
Recent Form (Last 5)
Penarol Penarol
WWDLW
59 GF / 34 GA
Progreso Progreso
WLDWL
27 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
1.55
Average Goals Scored
0.87
0.89
Average Goals Conceded
1.48
21
BTTS Yes
14
17
Over 2.5
14
2.64
Shots on Goal
1

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Penarol Penarol 38 matches
Progreso Progreso 31 matches
Penarol Statistic Progreso
20 Wins 8
9 Draws 4
9 Losses 19
59 Goals For 27
34 Goals Against 46
1.55 Avg Goals Scored 0.87
0.89 Avg Goals Conceded 1.48
21 BTTS Yes 14
29 Over 1.5 20
17 Over 2.5 14
7 Over 3.5 5
11 Clean Sheets 4
7 Failed To Score 13
2.64 Shots On Goal 1
8.45 Total Shots 2.67
2.45 Corners 1.33
28.5% Ball Possession 15.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Penarol's more proactive style and Progreso's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Penarol arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 59 points compared to Progreso in 15 on 28, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Progreso.

Penarol Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 59 points from 30 games, Penarol bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 18 wins, 6 draws, and 6 defeats, together with goals at 49:25, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained very solid. At home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, which underlines an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Progreso Analysis

Progreso sit 15 with 28 points after 30 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 18 losses, together with goals at 25:43, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.5%)
Predicted formations: Penarol 4-2-3-1 / Progreso 4-2-3-1

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 19 6 6 50:25 25 62
W D W W W
2 31 17 7 7 49:27 22 58
W W W L W
3 31 16 6 9 52:37 15 54
L D L W W
4 31 14 11 6 36:25 11 53
L L D W L
5 31 16 4 11 47:38 9 52
W W W D D
6 31 14 8 9 40:36 4 50
W W D D L
7 31 13 10 8 42:30 12 49
W W D L W
8 31 10 8 13 32:42 -10 38
L L L D D
9 31 10 7 14 41:42 -1 37
W L L L L
10 31 9 10 12 35:39 -4 37
D D W D D
11 31 8 11 12 28:36 -8 35
L W L W D
12 31 8 9 14 29:36 -7 33
L L L D L
13 31 9 6 16 23:45 -22 33
L D L W W
14 31 8 7 16 29:42 -13 31
D L L L L
15 31 5 14 12 26:40 -14 29
W L D D L
16 31 8 4 19 27:46 -19 28
L W W L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)