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18.07.2026 19:00
Referee: J. Burgos
Penarol
Match Timeline
Boston River
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
38'
F. Bonfiglio
Boston River
⚽
40'
E. Darias
Penarol
🟨
41'
M. Gonzalez
Boston River
🔄
46'
Y. Gonzalez ↔ F. Aristegui
Boston River
🔄
46'
L. Suhr ↔ F. Perez
Boston River
🟨
51'
F. Aristegui
Boston River
🟨
64'
C. Jaime
Penarol
🔄
69'
F. Munoa ↔ G. Ramirez
Boston River
🔄
69'
F. Bonfiglio ↔ A. Fernandez
Boston River
🔄
70'
L. Umpierrez ↔ L. Angulo
Penarol
🔄
73'
M. Lemos ↔ F. Romero
Penarol
🔄
73'
M. Arezo ↔ A. Hernandez
Penarol
🟨
80'
R. A. Saravia Salvia
Boston River
⚽
81'
M. Gonzalez
Penarol
🔄
82'
C. Jaime ↔ F. Batista
Penarol
🔄
83'
J. Cabrera ↔ I. Alegre
Penarol
🟨
85'
J. Acosta
Boston River
🟨
88'
A. Aguirre
Boston River
🟨
90+3'
L. Ferreira
Penarol
⚽
90'
F. Romero
Penarol

Penarol vs Boston River Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77.9%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77.9%
- ▥
BTTS No
50.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 10.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Penarol Win 77.9%
Draw 14.2%
Boston River Win 7.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Penarol1.28
Boston River0.99
Recent Form (Last 5)
Penarol Penarol
WWDLW
33 GF / 27 GA
Boston River Boston River
WLDWL
19 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.27
Average Goals Scored
0.95
1.04
Average Goals Conceded
1.3
15
BTTS Yes
9
9
Over 2.5
8
4
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Penarol Penarol 26 matches
Boston River Boston River 20 matches
Penarol Statistic Boston River
11 Wins 6
7 Draws 4
8 Losses 10
33 Goals For 19
27 Goals Against 26
1.27 Avg Goals Scored 0.95
1.04 Avg Goals Conceded 1.3
15 BTTS Yes 9
20 Over 1.5 13
9 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 3
6 Clean Sheets 4
5 Failed To Score 9
4 Shots On Goal 0
13.33 Total Shots 0
4 Corners 0
42.7% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Penarol's more proactive style and Boston River's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Penarol arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 37 points compared to Boston River in 12 on 22, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Boston River.

Penarol Analysis

Penarol come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 37 points after 20 matches. The return of 11 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats, together with goals at 29:19, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Boston River Analysis

Boston River are currently 12 in the standings with 22 points from 20 matches. The record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 19:26 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Penarol won 10 times, Boston River won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:11 from Penarol's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (92.1%)
Predicted formations: Penarol 4-2-3-1 / Boston River 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Penarol wins 10, draws 3, Boston River wins 2

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 19 7 6 51:26 25 63
D W D W W
2 32 17 8 7 50:28 22 59
D W W W L
3 32 17 6 9 53:37 16 57
W L D L W
4 32 17 4 11 48:38 10 55
W W W W D
5 32 14 11 7 36:27 9 53
L L L D W
6 32 13 11 8 43:31 12 50
D W W D L
7 32 14 8 10 41:39 2 50
L W W D D
8 32 11 7 14 42:42 0 40
W W L L L
9 32 10 10 12 37:39 -2 40
W D D W D
10 32 10 8 14 32:43 -11 38
L L L L D
11 32 10 6 16 26:47 -21 36
W L D L W
12 32 8 11 13 30:39 -9 35
L L W L W
13 32 9 7 16 32:43 -11 34
W D L L L
14 32 8 9 15 29:37 -8 33
L L L L D
15 32 5 14 13 26:41 -15 29
L W L D D
16 32 8 5 19 28:47 -19 29
D L W W L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)