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BRAZIL › SERIE C
03.10.2026 22:30
Referee: L. Torezin
Paysandu
Match Timeline
Ferroviária
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
33'
Caio Mello
Paysandu
🟨
44'
Bruno Bispo
Paysandu
🟨
45+2'
Paysandu
Paysandu
🟨
45+3'
Fernandinho
Ferroviária
🔄
53'
Rafael Carillho ↔ Igor Henrique
Ferroviária
🔄
55'
Fernandinho ↔ Raoni
Ferroviária
🟨
57'
Ferroviária
Ferroviária
🔄
58'
M. Thiago ↔ Juninho
Ferroviária
🟨
65'
Raoni
Ferroviária
🟨
71'
Marcinho
Paysandu
🔄
73'
Albano ↔ Fau
Ferroviária
🔄
73'
Maranhao ↔ Denilson Chaves
Ferroviária
🔄
83'
Marcinho ↔ Radsley
Paysandu
🟨
85'
Jean Drosny
Paysandu
🟨
88'
Radsley
Paysandu

Paysandu vs Ferroviária Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 60.8%
Odds 1.33
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 2.02
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
60.8%
1.33 ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
1.83 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
2.02 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.00 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Paysandu Win 39.6%
Draw 21.1%
Ferroviária Win 39.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Paysandu1.12
Ferroviária1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Paysandu Paysandu
WWDLW
29 GF / 34 GA
Ferroviária Ferroviária
WLDWL
30 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.26
Average Goals Scored
1.3
1.48
Average Goals Conceded
0.91
14
BTTS Yes
9
13
Over 2.5
8
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Paysandu Paysandu 23 matches
Ferroviária Ferroviária 23 matches
Paysandu Statistic Ferroviária
9 Wins 10
3 Draws 8
11 Losses 5
29 Goals For 30
34 Goals Against 21
1.26 Avg Goals Scored 1.3
1.48 Avg Goals Conceded 0.91
14 BTTS Yes 9
17 Over 1.5 12
13 Over 2.5 8
6 Over 3.5 7
3 Clean Sheets 10
6 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Ferroviária's more proactive style and Paysandu's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Ferroviária. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Paysandu have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Ferroviária having the stronger overall control.

Paysandu Analysis

Paysandu sit 7 with 29 points after 19 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 9 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 26:27, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Ferroviária Analysis

Ferroviária approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 30 points after 19 outings. They have recorded 8 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, with a 22:15 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Paysandu won 1 times, Ferroviária won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:8 from Paysandu's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78.9%)
H2H summary: Paysandu wins 1, draws 1, Ferroviária wins 2

Standings

First stage
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 10 3 6 28:19 9 33
D D L L L
2 19 9 5 5 28:22 6 32
D D L D W
3 19 8 6 5 22:15 7 30
L D W W D
4 19 8 6 5 32:30 2 30
D D W L W
5 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
D D L W L
6 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
D W D D D
7 19 9 2 8 26:27 -1 29
W L D L L
8 19 8 5 6 20:15 5 29
D D W W W
9 19 8 5 6 27:24 3 29
D W D W W
10 19 7 7 5 34:24 10 28
D L D L W
11 19 7 7 5 19:22 -3 28
W D W D W
12 19 7 6 6 19:18 1 27
L W W W D
13 19 7 5 7 21:23 -2 26
D D D W W
14 19 6 7 6 17:16 1 25
D L L W L
15 19 6 4 9 18:21 -3 22
L L L W L
16 19 6 3 10 13:25 -12 21
L L W L L
17 19 5 6 8 21:21 0 21
W L W L L
18 19 5 4 10 17:22 -5 19
D W L W W
19 19 4 5 10 14:27 -13 17
L L L L D
20 19 3 4 12 11:20 -9 13
L L D L D
Play-offs
Relegation