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FRANCE › LIGUE 1
22.04.2026 17:00
Parc des Princes
Referee: C. Turpin
Paris Saint Germain
Match Timeline
Nantes
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
11'
Marquinhos
Paris Saint Germain
⚽
13'
K. Kvaratskhelia
Paris Saint Germain
VAR
24'
Louis Leroux
Nantes
🟨
35'
Warren Zaïre-Emery
Paris Saint Germain
⚽
37'
D. Doue · Assist: A. Hakimi
Paris Saint Germain
🟨
41'
Ilya Zabarnyi
Paris Saint Germain
🟨
46'
Frederic Guilbert
Nantes
⚽
50'
K. Kvaratskhelia · Assist: O. Dembele
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
60'
J. Neves ↔ F. Ruiz
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
60'
W. Zaire-Emery ↔ S. Mayulu
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
60'
A. Hakimi ↔ L. Hernandez
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
65'
O. Dembele ↔ B. Barcola
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
65'
K. Kvaratskhelia ↔ I. Mbaye
Paris Saint Germain
🔄
65'
Mostafa Mohamed ↔ I. Ganago
Nantes
🔄
65'
L. Leroux ↔ D. Tabibou
Nantes
🔄
73'
J. Lepenant ↔ B. Deuff
Nantes
🔄
79'
M. Acapandie ↔ C. Awaziem
Nantes
🔄
80'
M. Abline ↔ Y. El Arabi
Nantes

Paris Saint Germain vs Nantes Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 84.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 58%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 59.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
84.2%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
58%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
59.4%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Paris Saint Germain Win 84.2%
Draw 10.5%
Nantes Win 5.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Paris Saint Germain2.06
Nantes1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain
WWDLW
106 GF / 45 GA
Nantes Nantes
WLDWL
31 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
2.36
Average Goals Scored
1
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.61
22
BTTS Yes
16
29
Over 2.5
13
7
Shots on Goal
3.23

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 45 matches
Nantes Nantes 31 matches
Paris Saint Germain Statistic Nantes
30 Wins 5
7 Draws 9
8 Losses 17
106 Goals For 31
45 Goals Against 50
2.36 Avg Goals Scored 1
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.61
22 BTTS Yes 16
36 Over 1.5 21
29 Over 2.5 13
18 Over 3.5 8
20 Clean Sheets 6
4 Failed To Score 12
7 Shots On Goal 3.23
18.38 Total Shots 10.61
6.11 Corners 3.19
68.6% Ball Possession 43.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Paris Saint Germain's more proactive style and Nantes's more cautious structure. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Nantes. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Paris Saint Germain expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Nantes in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nantes having the stronger overall control. Paris Saint Germain arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 63 points compared to Nantes in 17 on 20, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Paris Saint Germain Analysis

Paris Saint Germain come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 63 points after 28 matches. They have recorded 20 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, with a 61:23 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on B. Barcola (10 goals), O. Dembele (10 goals), Gonçalo Ramos (6 goals), with creative support from Vitinha (7 assists), O. Dembele (5 assists), N. Mendes (5 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, their record of 11 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football. Although they are without Q. Ndjantou, N. Mendes, Vitinha, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.

Nantes Analysis

Nantes approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 20 points from 29 matches. Their record of 4 wins, 8 draws, and 17 losses, together with goals at 24:45, reflects poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their threat comes through M. Abline (5 goals), Mostafa Mohamed (4 goals), Fabien Centonze (3 goals), with creative support from M. Abline (3 assists), Chidozie Awaziem (2 assists), B. Guirassy (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with F. Centonze, D. Tabibou, T. Tati unavailable.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Paris Saint Germain won 11 times, Nantes won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 33:12 from Paris Saint Germain's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (94.6%)
Predicted formations: Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3 / Nantes 4-1-4-1
Missing players: Paris Saint Germain 3, Nantes 6
H2H summary: Paris Saint Germain wins 11, draws 2, Nantes wins 2

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2 34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3 34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4 34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16 34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18 34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
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