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BRAZIL › SERIE A
02.05.2026 21:30
Allianz Parque
Referee: Raphael Claus, Brazil
Palmeiras
Match Timeline
Santos
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
26'
Benjamín Rollheiser
Santos
🟨
32'
Gabriel Brazão
Santos
🔄
46'
Khellven ↔ Allan
Palmeiras
🔄
60'
Lucas Evangelista ↔ Ramón Sosa
Palmeiras
⚽
64'
José López · Assist: Andreas Pereira
Palmeiras
🔄
68'
Christian Oliva ↔ Willian Arão
Santos
🔄
74'
Andreas Pereira ↔ Luis Pacheco
Palmeiras
🔄
74'
Mauricio ↔ Paulinho
Palmeiras
🔄
80'
Gustavo Gómez ↔ Emiliano Martínez
Palmeiras
🔄
81'
Gabriel Barbosa ↔ Rony
Santos
🔄
81'
Álvaro Barreal ↔ Moisés
Santos
🔄
86'
Gabriel Bontempo ↔ Zé Rafael
Santos
🔄
86'
Benjamín Rollheiser ↔ Mateus Xavier
Santos
🟨
90+9'
Luis Pacheco
Palmeiras
VAR
90+5'
Jhon Arias
Palmeiras

Palmeiras vs Santos Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 83.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 40.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 52.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
83.4%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
40.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
52.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Palmeiras Win 83.4%
Draw 0%
Santos Win 16.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Palmeiras1.66
Santos1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Palmeiras Palmeiras
WWDLW
27 GF / 13 GA
Santos Santos
WLDWL
18 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.69
Average Goals Scored
1.38
0.81
Average Goals Conceded
1.62
11
BTTS Yes
10
9
Over 2.5
8
4.88
Shots on Goal
3.23

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Palmeiras Palmeiras 16 matches
Santos Santos 13 matches
Palmeiras Statistic Santos
11 Wins 3
4 Draws 5
1 Losses 5
27 Goals For 18
13 Goals Against 21
1.69 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
0.81 Avg Goals Conceded 1.62
11 BTTS Yes 10
11 Over 1.5 11
9 Over 2.5 8
3 Over 3.5 5
5 Clean Sheets 3
1 Failed To Score 1
4.88 Shots On Goal 3.23
13.44 Total Shots 12.15
5.81 Corners 5.38
50.6% Ball Possession 47.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Palmeiras's more proactive style and Santos's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Palmeiras arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 32 points compared to Santos in 17 on 14, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Palmeiras come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Santos.

Palmeiras Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 32 points from 13 games, Palmeiras bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 10 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 23:10, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through J. Lopez (4 goals), Allan Elias (3 goals), G. Gomez (3 goals), with creative support from Andreas Pereira (8 assists), J. Lopez (3 assists), Marlon Freitas (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 6 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Santos Analysis

Santos approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 14 points from 13 matches. The overall return of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 5 defeats with a 18:21 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Gabriel Barbosa (4 goals), Neymar (3 goals), A. Barreal (2 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Barbosa (2 assists), Neymar (2 assists), Moises (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Palmeiras won 10 times, Santos won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:8 from Palmeiras's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Palmeiras 4-2-3-1 / Santos 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Palmeiras 3, Santos 5
H2H summary: Palmeiras wins 10, draws 2, Santos wins 3

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 20 7 4 61:25 36 67
W W D W W
2 31 19 9 3 54:22 32 66
W W W D W
3 31 15 8 8 49:37 12 53
L W D W D
4 31 15 6 10 50:46 4 51
W L W W L
5 31 14 9 8 49:39 10 51
L L W W L
6 31 14 8 9 42:35 7 50
W W D W D
7 31 13 10 8 44:39 5 49
L W L L W
8 31 12 9 10 48:46 2 45
W L D W W
9 31 12 6 13 36:35 1 42
W W L L W
10 31 11 8 12 39:36 3 41
D W D L L
11 31 10 9 12 44:48 -4 39
W D L L W
12 31 10 9 12 38:49 -11 39
L D L L D
13 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
14 31 9 9 13 36:44 -8 36
W L D W D
15 30 9 8 13 36:43 -7 35
L D W W W
16 30 8 8 14 31:38 -7 32
L L L L L
17 31 7 11 13 33:40 -7 32
L D W L W
18 31 7 10 14 34:44 -10 31
L D D D L
19 31 5 11 15 34:49 -15 26
D D D L L
20 30 3 9 18 30:62 -32 18
L L L D L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B