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BRAZIL › SERIE A
17.05.2026 00:00
Allianz Parque
Referee: S. Sampaio
Palmeiras
Match Timeline
Cruzeiro
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
11'
K. Arroyo
Cruzeiro
⚽
11'
K. Arroyo · Assist: Christian
Cruzeiro
🔄
17'
R. Sosa ↔ Mauricio
Palmeiras
⚽
20'
Felipe Anderson
Palmeiras
🟨
41'
Matheus Pereira
Cruzeiro
🔄
44'
Felipe Anderson ↔ Lucas Evangelista
Palmeiras
🟨
72'
J. Lopez
Palmeiras
🟨
75'
Otavio Costa
Cruzeiro
🔄
75'
K. Arroyo ↔ Kenji
Cruzeiro
🔄
77'
Andreas Pereira ↔ Paulinho
Palmeiras
🔄
77'
A. Giay ↔ Khellven
Palmeiras
🔄
77'
Arthur Gabriel ↔ Jefte
Palmeiras
🟨
88'
Murilo
Palmeiras
🔄
89'
Matheus Pereira ↔ L. Sinisterra
Cruzeiro
🟨
90+2'
Lucas Silva
Cruzeiro
🔄
90'
Christian ↔ Lucas Silva
Cruzeiro

Palmeiras vs Cruzeiro Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 40%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 77.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.9%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
40%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
77.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Palmeiras Win 65.9%
Draw 0%
Cruzeiro Win 34.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Palmeiras1.55
Cruzeiro1.04
Recent Form (Last 5)
Palmeiras Palmeiras
WWDLW
31 GF / 15 GA
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
WLDWL
23 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.63
Average Goals Scored
1.21
0.79
Average Goals Conceded
1.42
13
BTTS Yes
10
9
Over 2.5
11
4.79
Shots on Goal
4.37

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Palmeiras Palmeiras 19 matches
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 19 matches
Palmeiras Statistic Cruzeiro
12 Wins 7
6 Draws 5
1 Losses 7
31 Goals For 23
15 Goals Against 27
1.63 Avg Goals Scored 1.21
0.79 Avg Goals Conceded 1.42
13 BTTS Yes 10
14 Over 1.5 14
9 Over 2.5 11
3 Over 3.5 5
6 Clean Sheets 7
1 Failed To Score 4
4.79 Shots On Goal 4.37
14.58 Total Shots 13.21
6.63 Corners 4.63
52.1% Ball Possession 55.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Palmeiras's more proactive style and Cruzeiro's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Palmeiras arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 34 points compared to Cruzeiro in 11 on 19, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Cruzeiro. Cruzeiro look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

Palmeiras Analysis

Palmeiras arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 1 place with 34 points after 15 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses, while the 25:12 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Lopez (5 goals), Allan Elias (3 goals), G. Gomez (3 goals), with creative support from Andreas Pereira (9 assists), J. Lopez (3 assists), Allan Elias (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Cruzeiro Analysis

From their first 15 matches, Cruzeiro have collected 19 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. Their overall return of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 20:25 reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking weight is carried by Christian (5 goals), Kaio Jorge (3 goals), N. Villarreal (3 goals), with creative support from L. Romero (3 assists), Matheus Pereira (2 assists), Keny Arroyo (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Palmeiras won 6 times, Cruzeiro won 3 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:12 from Palmeiras's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Palmeiras 4-2-3-1 / Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Palmeiras 7, Cruzeiro 4
H2H summary: Palmeiras wins 6, draws 6, Cruzeiro wins 3

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 7 4 58:25 33 64
W D W W W
2 30 18 9 3 52:22 30 63
W W D W D
3 30 15 8 7 49:35 14 53
W D W D L
4 30 14 9 7 48:37 11 51
L W W L W
5 30 13 10 7 44:36 8 49
W L L W W
6 29 14 6 9 44:40 4 48
W W L W L
7 30 13 8 9 41:35 6 47
W D W D W
8 30 11 9 10 46:45 1 42
L D W W W
9 30 11 6 13 35:35 0 39
W L L W L
10 30 10 9 11 38:48 -10 39
D L L D L
11 29 10 7 12 34:33 1 37
D L L D L
12 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
13 30 9 9 12 43:48 -5 36
D L L W D
14 29 9 8 12 36:42 -6 35
D W W W L
15 30 8 9 13 34:44 -10 33
L D W D W
16 30 8 8 14 31:38 -7 32
L L L L L
17 30 7 11 12 33:38 -5 32
D W L W L
18 30 7 10 13 32:40 -8 31
D D D L L
19 30 5 10 15 33:48 -15 25
D D L L L
20 29 3 9 17 30:61 -31 18
L L D L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B