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HUNGARY › NB I
10.10.2026 17:30

Paks vs MTK Budapest Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 50.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
50.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Paks Win 50.2%
Draw 16.8%
MTK Budapest Win 33%
Expected Goals (xG)
Paks2.3
MTK Budapest2.05
Recent Form (Last 5)
Paks Paks
WWDLW
62 GF / 47 GA
MTK Budapest MTK Budapest
WLDWL
40 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
2.58
Average Goals Scored
2.11
1.96
Average Goals Conceded
1.89
18
BTTS Yes
15
20
Over 2.5
16
5.9
Shots on Goal
5.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Paks Paks 24 matches
MTK Budapest MTK Budapest 19 matches
Paks Statistic MTK Budapest
9 Wins 7
6 Draws 5
9 Losses 7
62 Goals For 40
47 Goals Against 36
2.58 Avg Goals Scored 2.11
1.96 Avg Goals Conceded 1.89
18 BTTS Yes 15
22 Over 1.5 18
20 Over 2.5 16
16 Over 3.5 11
5 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 1
5.9 Shots On Goal 5.38
16.4 Total Shots 12.75
6.3 Corners 3.63
46.6% Ball Possession 39.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and MTK Budapest's more proactive style and Paks's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward MTK Budapest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Paks expected to line up in 5-4-1 and MTK Budapest in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward MTK Budapest having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Paks Analysis

From their first 8 matches, Paks have collected 11 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, while the 16:17 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Szalai (6 goals), M. Pető (3 goals), J. Windecker (2 goals), with creative support from Z. Haraszti (2 assists), A. Lapu (2 assists), K. Papp (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

MTK Budapest Analysis

MTK Budapest sit 7 with 9 points after 8 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, while the 15:14 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Zalán Márk Kerezsi (4 goals), I. Bognár (2 goals), G. Jurek (2 goals), with creative support from Zalán Márk Kerezsi (2 assists), I. Bognár (2 assists), G. Jurek (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Paks won 11 times, MTK Budapest won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 37:17 from Paks's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.2%)
Predicted formations: Paks 5-4-1 / MTK Budapest 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Paks wins 11, draws 2, MTK Budapest wins 2

Standings

NB I
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 4 3 1 16:10 6 15
W W L D W
2 8 5 0 3 13:10 3 15
W L L W W
3 8 4 2 2 17:11 6 14
W W L L W
4 8 4 2 2 17:13 4 14
W D W L D
5 7 3 3 1 11:8 3 12
D D W W W
6
Paks Home
8 3 2 3 16:17 -1 11
W L D W L
7 8 2 3 3 15:14 1 9
L L D W D
8 8 2 3 3 9:10 -1 9
L W D D L
9 8 2 3 3 12:15 -3 9
L W D D D
10 8 2 2 4 9:14 -5 8
D L D L W
11 7 1 3 3 11:14 -3 6
L L W L D
12 8 2 0 6 7:17 -10 6
L W L L L
Play-offs
Relegation