ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Paide linnastaadion
Referee: J. Jakobson
Paide
Match Timeline
Tammeka
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
13'
M. Jobarteh
Paide
🟨
34'
Victor Hugo
Paide
🔄
46'
M. Karis ↔ M. Miil
Tammeka
🔄
60'
M. Jobarteh ↔ D. Luts
Paide
🔄
61'
P. Marin ↔ C. Ignatius
Tammeka
🟨
62'
Daniel Cabral
Paide
🔄
68'
T. Lang ↔ D. Epton
Tammeka
🔄
68'
T. Koskor ↔ Kauan Pereira
Tammeka
🟨
70'
Pedro Manoel
Tammeka
🔄
75'
Daniel Cabral ↔ R. Smirnov
Paide
🟨
77'
P. Veelma
Tammeka
🔄
77'
E. Tur ↔ M. Lilander
Paide
🔄
81'
Thomas Lisboa ↔ M. Vaino
Tammeka
88'
P. Veelma
Tammeka
🟨
90'
C. Ignatius
Tammeka
🟨
90+4'
M. P. Sohna
Paide
🟨
90+8'
M. Miil
Tammeka

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 85.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 16.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
85.1%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
16.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Paide Win 85.1%
Draw 0%
Tammeka Win 14.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Paide1.82
Tammeka1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Paide Paide
WWDLW
32 GF / 23 GA
Tammeka Tammeka
WLDWL
23 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.88
Average Goals Scored
1.53
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
1.73
13
BTTS Yes
8
12
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Paide Paide 17 matches
Tammeka Tammeka 15 matches
Paide Statistic Tammeka
9 Wins 5
4 Draws 2
4 Losses 8
32 Goals For 23
23 Goals Against 26
1.88 Avg Goals Scored 1.53
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 1.73
13 BTTS Yes 8
13 Over 1.5 12
12 Over 2.5 10
9 Over 3.5 6
4 Clean Sheets 3
0 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Paide's more proactive style and Tammeka's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Tammeka arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Paide arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 17 points compared to Tammeka in 9 on 7, which underlines the gap in season consistency. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Tammeka having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Tammeka.

Paide Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 17 points from 9 games, Paide bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 17:11, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Daniel Cabral (3 goals), M. P. Sohna (3 goals), H. Anier (2 goals), with creative support from H. Anier (3 assists), M. P. Sohna (1 assists), K. Piht (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Tammeka Analysis

With 7 points from 9 games and a place of 9, Tammeka still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 10:17, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through T. Koskor (4 goals), P. Marin (3 goals), Pedro Manoel (3 goals), with creative support from C. Ignatius (2 assists), Pedro Manoel (1 assists), G. Uggeri (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Paide won 11 times, Tammeka won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 31:9 from Paide's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.86 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
H2H summary: Paide wins 11, draws 1, Tammeka wins 2

Lineups

Paide
Formation
Tammeka
E. Jarju
E. Jarju
E. Tur
E. Tur
G. Juhkam
G. Juhkam
Andrade
Andrade
Victor Hugo
Victor Hugo
Daniel Cabral
Daniel Cabral
O. Hoim
O. Hoim
M. Miller
M. Miller
M. Jobarteh
M. Jobarteh
H. Anier
H. Anier
M. P. Sohna
M. P. Sohna
K. Lapa
K. Lapa
M. Karis
M. Karis
Pedro Manoel
Pedro Manoel
O. Kangaslahti
O. Kangaslahti
R. Kallas
R. Kallas
Thomas Lisboa
Thomas Lisboa
T. Lang
T. Lang
P. Veelma
P. Veelma
G. Uggeri
G. Uggeri
P. Marin
P. Marin
T. Koskor
T. Koskor
Paide 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
99
E. Jarju
7
E. Tur
↓ 77'
5
G. Juhkam
4
Andrade
3
Victor Hugo
🟨 34'
6
Daniel Cabral
↓ 75' 🟨 62'
28
O. Hoim
10
M. Miller
14
M. Jobarteh
↓ 60' 🟨 13'
9
H. Anier
11
M. P. Sohna
🟨 90+4'
Substitutes
12
M. Meerits
2
M. Lilander
↑ 77'
15
H. Ojamaa
16
A. Surogin
17
P. A. Cham
21
R. Smirnov
↑ 75'
24
R. Nigula
27
N. Baranov
30
A. Badamosi
37
K. Kanne
77
D. Luts
↑ 60'
Tammeka 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
26
K. Lapa
6
M. Karis
↓ 46'
3
Pedro Manoel
🟨 70'
44
O. Kangaslahti
28
R. Kallas
7
Thomas Lisboa
↓ 81'
22
T. Lang
↓ 68'
23
P. Veelma
⚽ 88' 🟨 77'
10
G. Uggeri
79
P. Marin
↓ 61'
19
T. Koskor
↓ 68'
Substitutes
77
C. Kiidjarv
4
M. Vaino
↑ 81'
8
K. Kiidron
9
M. Miil
↑ 46' 🟨 90+8'
15
D. Epton
↑ 68'
17
C. Ignatius
↑ 61' 🟨 90'
25
A. Viinapuu
29
R. Silov
89
Kauan Pereira
↑ 68'
99
M. Hydara
Last matches: Paide
28.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
21.06.26
Mei
Paide
Flora Tallinn
2
1
W
17.06.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
1
0
W
14.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
31.05.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
1
D
20.05.26
Mei
Paide
Trans Narva
0
1
L
17.05.26
Mei
Paide
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
10.05.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
3
2
W
26.04.26
Mei
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
22.04.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
2
2
D
19.04.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
12.04.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
4
1
W
08.04.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
3
1
W
03.04.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
0
W
22.03.26
Mei
Paide
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
2
D
15.03.26
Mei
Paide
Trans Narva
1
0
W
07.03.26
Mei
Paide
Vaprus
2
3
L
28.02.26
Fri
Paide
Super Nova
1
0
W
20.02.26
Fri
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
3
L
14.02.26
Fri
Paide
Kalju Nomme
2
1
W
Last matches: Tammeka
21.06.26
Mei
Tammeka
Trans Narva
1
0
W
17.06.26
Mei
Tammeka
Kalju Nomme
2
1
W
13.06.26
Mei
Tammeka
Vaprus
0
0
D
30.05.26
Mei
Tammeka
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
1
L
15.05.26
Mei
Tammeka
Nõmme United
3
1
W
08.05.26
Mei
Tammeka
Kuressaare
1
0
W
25.04.26
Mei
Tammeka
Laagri
0
1
L
22.04.26
Mei
Tammeka
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
18.04.26
Mei
Tammeka
Vaprus
0
0
D
12.04.26
Mei
Tammeka
Paide
1
4
L
07.04.26
Mei
Tammeka
Trans Narva
0
3
L
03.04.26
Mei
Tammeka
Flora Tallinn
3
1
W
21.03.26
Mei
Tammeka
Nõmme United
3
2
W
14.03.26
Mei
Tammeka
Kuressaare
2
3
L
08.03.26
Mei
Tammeka
Kalju Nomme
0
1
L
27.02.26
Fri
Tammeka
Riga Mariners
1
1
D
15.02.26
Fri
Tammeka
Viimsi
2
0
W
08.02.26
Fri
Tammeka
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
4
L
31.01.26
Fri
Tammeka
Nõmme United
6
0
W
25.01.26
Fri
Tammeka
Tallinna Kalev
0
3
L
H2H: Paide vs Tammeka
01.05.26
H2H
Paide
Tammeka
0
1
L
12.04.26
H2H
Tammeka
Paide
1
4
W
29.10.25
H2H
Paide
Tammeka
3
0
W
18.10.25
H2H
Paide
Tammeka
5
0
W
23.08.25
H2H
Tammeka
Paide
0
1
W
28.06.25
H2H
Tammeka
Paide
0
2
W
05.04.25
H2H
Paide
Tammeka
1
0
W
26.01.25
H2H
Tammeka
Paide
0
0
D
26.10.24
H2H
Paide
Tammeka
2
0
W
24.08.24
H2H
Tammeka
Paide
1
3
W
18.05.24
H2H
Tammeka
Paide
1
2
W
20.04.24
H2H
Paide
Tammeka
0
1
L
30.09.23
H2H
Tammeka
Paide
1
2
W
19.08.23
H2H
Paide
Tammeka
6
3
W
13.05.23
H2H
Paide
Tammeka
0
0
D
Last matches: Paide
17.06.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
1
0
W
31.05.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
1
D
17.05.26
Mei
Paide
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
26.04.26
Mei
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
19.04.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
08.04.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
3
1
W
15.03.26
Mei
Paide
Trans Narva
1
0
W
28.02.26
Fri
Paide
Super Nova
1
0
W
20.02.26
Fri
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
3
L
14.02.26
Fri
Paide
Kalju Nomme
2
1
W
31.01.26
Fri
Paide
Metta / LU
2
1
W
24.01.26
Fri
Paide
Rīgas FS
2
2
D
14.01.26
Fri
Paide
Tartu Welco
5
1
W
24.07.25
UEF
Paide
AIK Stockholm
0
2
L
17.07.25
UEF
Paide
Magpies
4
1
W
H2H at home: Paide
01.05.26
H2H
Paide
Tammeka
0
1
L
29.10.25
H2H
Paide
Tammeka
3
0
W
18.10.25
H2H
Paide
Tammeka
5
0
W
05.04.25
H2H
Paide
Tammeka
1
0
W
26.10.24
H2H
Paide
Tammeka
2
0
W
20.04.24
H2H
Paide
Tammeka
0
1
L
19.08.23
H2H
Paide
Tammeka
6
3
W
13.05.23
H2H
Paide
Tammeka
0
0
D
Last matches: Tammeka
17.06.26
Mei
Tammeka
Kalju Nomme
2
1
W
25.04.26
Mei
Tammeka
Laagri
0
1
L
18.04.26
Mei
Tammeka
Vaprus
0
0
D
07.04.26
Mei
Tammeka
Trans Narva
0
3
L
21.03.26
Mei
Tammeka
Nõmme United
3
2
W
14.03.26
Mei
Tammeka
Kuressaare
2
3
L
27.02.26
Fri
Tammeka
Riga Mariners
1
1
D
08.02.26
Fri
Tammeka
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
4
L
31.01.26
Fri
Tammeka
Nõmme United
6
0
W
17.01.26
Fri
Tammeka
Trans Narva
2
1
W
H2H away: Tammeka
01.05.26
H2H
Paide
Tammeka
0
1
W
29.10.25
H2H
Paide
Tammeka
3
0
L
18.10.25
H2H
Paide
Tammeka
5
0
L
05.04.25
H2H
Paide
Tammeka
1
0
L
26.10.24
H2H
Paide
Tammeka
2
0
L
20.04.24
H2H
Paide
Tammeka
0
1
W
19.08.23
H2H
Paide
Tammeka
6
3
L
13.05.23
H2H
Paide
Tammeka
0
0
D

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 13 4 1 46:15 31 43
L D W W W
2 17 11 0 6 35:19 16 33
W L W L W
3 18 9 4 5 30:15 15 31
D D L D L
4
Paide Home
18 8 5 5 27:22 5 29
D W W D D
5 16 7 2 7 18:20 -2 23
W W D L W
6 17 7 2 8 21:31 -10 23
W L D W L
7 17 6 1 10 33:40 -7 19
W L W L L
8 17 6 1 10 21:30 -9 19
L L L W L
9 17 5 2 10 17:27 -10 17
L D W D W
10 17 3 1 13 11:40 -29 10
L D L L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga