ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Paide linnastaadion
Referee: K. Tohver
Paide
Match Timeline
Flora Tallinn
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
2'
H. Anier · Assist: Victor Hugo
Paide
🟨
36'
R. Valdmets
Flora Tallinn
🔄
46'
M. Jobarteh ↔ N. Baranov
Paide
🔄
46'
H. Anier ↔ A. Badamosi
Paide
🔄
46'
M. Lilander ↔ D. Luts
Paide
🟨
52'
A. Badamosi
Paide
🟨
59'
M. Kolobov
Flora Tallinn
62'
R. Sappinen · Assist: T. Varjund
Flora Tallinn
🟨
67'
S. Zenjov
Flora Tallinn
🔄
70'
S. Alamaa ↔ D. Kuraksin
Flora Tallinn
🔄
70'
R. Valdmets ↔ T. Usta
Flora Tallinn
🟨
71'
O. Hoim
Paide
76'
T. Usta · Assist: S. Zenjov
Flora Tallinn
🔄
78'
M. P. Sohna ↔ Willian Lins
Paide
🔄
82'
T. Varjund ↔ I. Antonov
Flora Tallinn
🟥
90+3'
Willian Lins
Paide
🔄
90'
G. Juhkam ↔ E. Tur
Paide

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 75.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 83.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
75.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
83.3%
-
Probability Distribution
Paide Win 74.7%
Draw 6.4%
Flora Tallinn Win 18.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Paide1.64
Flora Tallinn1.53
Recent Form (Last 5)
Paide Paide
WWDLW
31 GF / 21 GA
Flora Tallinn Flora Tallinn
WLDWL
25 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.94
Average Goals Scored
1.67
1.31
Average Goals Conceded
1.2
12
BTTS Yes
4
11
Over 2.5
9
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Paide Paide 16 matches
Flora Tallinn Flora Tallinn 15 matches
Paide Statistic Flora Tallinn
9 Wins 8
4 Draws 1
3 Losses 6
31 Goals For 25
21 Goals Against 18
1.94 Avg Goals Scored 1.67
1.31 Avg Goals Conceded 1.2
12 BTTS Yes 4
12 Over 1.5 11
11 Over 2.5 9
9 Over 3.5 6
4 Clean Sheets 6
0 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Flora Tallinn. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Flora Tallinn having the stronger overall control. Paide arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 17 points compared to Flora Tallinn in 5 on 12, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Paide come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Paide Analysis

Paide approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 17 points after 8 outings. The return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 13:7, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through Daniel Cabral (3 goals), M. P. Sohna (3 goals), R. Nigula (2 goals), with creative support from H. Anier (3 assists), M. P. Sohna (1 assists), K. Piht (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Flora Tallinn Analysis

Flora Tallinn approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 5 on 12 points after 8 outings. The return of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 4 defeats, together with goals at 8:7, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through R. Sappinen (4 goals), S. Alamaa (3 goals), I. Antonov (2 goals), with creative support from R. Sappinen (3 assists), S. Zenjov (2 assists), S. Alamaa (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Paide won 9 times, Flora Tallinn won 5 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:22 from Paide's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.6%)
H2H summary: Paide wins 9, draws 1, Flora Tallinn wins 5

Lineups

Paide
Formation
Flora Tallinn
E. Jarju
E. Jarju
G. Juhkam
G. Juhkam
Andrade
Andrade
Victor Hugo
🎯
Victor Hugo
M. Lilander
M. Lilander
M. Miller
M. Miller
O. Hoim
O. Hoim
Daniel Cabral
Daniel Cabral
M. P. Sohna
M. P. Sohna
H. Anier
H. Anier
M. Jobarteh
M. Jobarteh
K. Kivila
K. Kivila
N. Kalmokov
N. Kalmokov
M. Kolobov
M. Kolobov
A. Kollo
A. Kollo
S. Tovstik
S. Tovstik
V. Kreida
V. Kreida
R. Valdmets
R. Valdmets
S. Zenjov
🎯
S. Zenjov
T. Varjund
🎯
T. Varjund
S. Alamaa
S. Alamaa
R. Sappinen
R. Sappinen
Paide 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
99
E. Jarju
5
G. Juhkam
↓ 90'
4
Andrade
3
Victor Hugo
🎯 2'
2
M. Lilander
↓ 46'
10
M. Miller
28
O. Hoim
🟨 71'
6
Daniel Cabral
11
M. P. Sohna
↓ 78'
9
H. Anier
⚽ 2' ↓ 46'
14
M. Jobarteh
↓ 46'
Substitutes
12
M. Meerits
7
E. Tur
↑ 90'
15
H. Ojamaa
16
A. Surogin
17
P. A. Cham
19
S. Luts
21
R. Smirnov
27
N. Baranov
↑ 46'
30
A. Badamosi
↑ 46' 🟨 52'
43
Willian Lins
↑ 78' 🟥 90+3'
77
D. Luts
↑ 46'
Flora Tallinn 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
99
K. Kivila
2
N. Kalmokov
23
M. Kolobov
🟨 59'
3
A. Kollo
26
S. Tovstik
32
V. Kreida
18
R. Valdmets
↓ 70' 🟨 36'
20
S. Zenjov
🎯 76' 🟨 67'
14
T. Varjund
🎯 62' ↓ 82'
29
S. Alamaa
↓ 70'
11
R. Sappinen
⚽ 62'
Substitutes
33
E. Grunvald
4
M. Jekimov
5
A. Vaher
6
R. Veering
7
D. Kuraksin
↑ 70'
8
T. Teevali
17
T. Usta
⚽ 76' ↑ 70'
21
A. Kaares
24
O. Pihela
67
I. Antonov
↑ 82'
89
M. Kalimullin
Last matches: Paide
28.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
21.06.26
Mei
Paide
Flora Tallinn
2
1
W
17.06.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
1
0
W
14.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
31.05.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
1
D
20.05.26
Mei
Paide
Trans Narva
0
1
L
17.05.26
Mei
Paide
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
10.05.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
3
2
W
01.05.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
0
1
L
22.04.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
2
2
D
19.04.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
12.04.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
4
1
W
08.04.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
3
1
W
03.04.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
0
W
22.03.26
Mei
Paide
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
2
D
15.03.26
Mei
Paide
Trans Narva
1
0
W
07.03.26
Mei
Paide
Vaprus
2
3
L
28.02.26
Fri
Paide
Super Nova
1
0
W
20.02.26
Fri
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
3
L
14.02.26
Fri
Paide
Kalju Nomme
2
1
W
Last matches: Flora Tallinn
28.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
1
W
21.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
2
L
16.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
1
W
13.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
29.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
4
0
W
16.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
3
0
W
10.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
30.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Laagri
5
0
W
22.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
6
0
W
19.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
4
L
12.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
0
W
07.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kuressaare
2
1
W
03.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Tammeka
1
3
L
22.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Laagri
0
2
L
15.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
0
1
L
07.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
3
0
W
24.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Riga
0
3
L
20.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Paide
3
1
W
14.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Ogre United
1
0
W
H2H: Paide vs Flora Tallinn
21.06.26
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
2
W
23.05.26
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
5
L
26.04.26
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
20.02.26
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
3
L
26.10.25
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
1
D
21.06.25
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
2
1
W
15.06.25
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
2
W
18.04.25
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
0
L
22.02.25
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
0
W
30.10.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
0
2
W
20.10.24
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
2
1
W
01.06.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
2
0
L
17.04.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
3
W
16.03.24
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
2
1
W
10.02.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Paide
2
3
W
Last matches: Paide
17.06.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
1
0
W
31.05.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
1
D
17.05.26
Mei
Paide
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
01.05.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
0
1
L
19.04.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
08.04.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
3
1
W
15.03.26
Mei
Paide
Trans Narva
1
0
W
28.02.26
Fri
Paide
Super Nova
1
0
W
20.02.26
Fri
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
3
L
14.02.26
Fri
Paide
Kalju Nomme
2
1
W
31.01.26
Fri
Paide
Metta / LU
2
1
W
24.01.26
Fri
Paide
Rīgas FS
2
2
D
14.01.26
Fri
Paide
Tartu Welco
5
1
W
24.07.25
UEF
Paide
AIK Stockholm
0
2
L
17.07.25
UEF
Paide
Magpies
4
1
W
H2H at home: Paide
23.05.26
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
5
L
26.04.26
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
20.02.26
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
3
L
26.10.25
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
1
D
21.06.25
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
2
1
W
22.02.25
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
0
W
20.10.24
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
2
1
W
16.03.24
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
2
1
W
Last matches: Flora Tallinn
28.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
1
W
16.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
1
W
29.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
4
0
W
16.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
3
0
W
10.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
19.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
4
L
03.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Tammeka
1
3
L
22.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Laagri
0
2
L
20.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Paide
3
1
W
25.01.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
AIK Stockholm
0
1
L
17.01.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
2
D
10.07.25
UEF
Flora Tallinn
Valur Reykjavik
0
3
L
H2H away: Flora Tallinn
23.05.26
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
5
W
26.04.26
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
2
W
20.02.26
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
3
W
26.10.25
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
1
D
21.06.25
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
2
1
L
22.02.25
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
0
L
20.10.24
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
2
1
L
16.03.24
H2H
Paide
Flora Tallinn
2
1
L

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 13 4 1 46:15 31 43
L D W W W
2 17 11 0 6 35:19 16 33
W L W L W
3 18 9 4 5 30:15 15 31
D D L D L
4
Paide Home
18 8 5 5 27:22 5 29
D W W D D
5 16 7 2 7 18:20 -2 23
W W D L W
6 17 7 2 8 21:31 -10 23
W L D W L
7 17 6 1 10 33:40 -7 19
W L W L L
8 17 6 1 10 21:30 -9 19
L L L W L
9 17 5 2 10 17:27 -10 17
L D W D W
10 17 3 1 13 11:40 -29 10
L D L L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga