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ITALY › SERIE B
11.10.2026 15:15
Stadio Euganeo

Padova vs Carrarese Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 73.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
73.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Padova Win 73.2%
Draw 5.3%
Carrarese Win 21.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Padova1.17
Carrarese0.91
Recent Form (Last 5)
Padova Padova
WWDLW
12 GF / 17 GA
Carrarese Carrarese
WLDWL
3 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
0.38
1.7
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
6
BTTS Yes
2
5
Over 2.5
1
3.33
Shots on Goal
3.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Padova Padova 10 matches
Carrarese Carrarese 8 matches
Padova Statistic Carrarese
3 Wins 1
2 Draws 1
5 Losses 6
12 Goals For 3
17 Goals Against 9
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 0.38
1.7 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
6 BTTS Yes 2
7 Over 1.5 3
5 Over 2.5 1
4 Over 3.5 0
3 Clean Sheets 1
1 Failed To Score 5
3.33 Shots On Goal 3.17
11.5 Total Shots 11.5
5.33 Corners 5.17
43.7% Ball Possession 37.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Carrarese. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Padova arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 7 points compared to Carrarese in 20 on 1, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Carrarese arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Padova Analysis

So far, Padova have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 7 points from 5 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, while the 5:6 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on C. Pastina (1 goals), M. Pompetti (1 goals), N. Galazzi (1 goals), with creative support from M. Cocchi (2 assists), L. Carissoni (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Carrarese Analysis

With 1 points from 5 games and a place of 20, Carrarese still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 4 defeats with a 2:6 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on F. Abiuso (1 goals), P. Pinelli (1 goals), with creative support from J. Rouhi (1 assists), M. Cissé (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Padova won 1 times, Carrarese won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:0 from Padova's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 0.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.7%)
Predicted formations: Padova 3-5-2 / Carrarese 3-5-2
H2H summary: Padova wins 1, draws 1, Carrarese wins 0

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 5 4 1 0 10:5 5 13
W D W W W
2 5 3 2 0 9:3 6 11
W D W D W
3 5 3 2 0 10:5 5 11
D W D W W
4 5 3 1 1 8:4 4 10
W D L W W
5 5 3 1 1 7:4 3 10
W L W D W
6 5 2 1 2 5:6 -1 7
L W L D W
7 5 2 1 2 6:5 1 7
W W L D L
8 5 2 1 2 10:7 3 7
W L W D L
9 5 2 1 2 7:6 1 7
L D W W L
10 5 1 4 0 7:6 1 7
D D D W D
11 5 2 1 2 8:8 0 7
D L W W L
12 5 2 0 3 6:13 -7 6
L W L L W
13 5 2 0 3 4:6 -2 6
L L W L W
14 5 1 2 2 7:6 1 5
D W D L L
15 5 1 2 2 5:7 -2 5
D D W L L
16 5 1 2 2 7:10 -3 5
L D D L W
17 5 1 1 3 5:9 -4 4
W L L L D
18 5 1 0 4 5:9 -4 3
L W L L L
19 5 1 2 2 4:7 -3 1
D D L W L
20 5 0 1 4 2:6 -4 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie A
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Serie B (Play Out)
Relegation