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27.10.2026 19:45
RAW Charging Stadium

Oxford City vs Merthyr Town Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71.5%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Oxford City Win 71.5%
Draw 4.6%
Merthyr Town Win 23.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Oxford City1.73
Merthyr Town1.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
Oxford City Oxford City
D W W W D
12 GF / 3 GA
Merthyr Town Merthyr Town
L D D L L
4 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
2.06
Average Goals Scored
1.38
0.72
Average Goals Conceded
1.24
8
BTTS Yes
14
9
Over 2.5
11
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Oxford City Oxford City 18 matches
Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 21 matches
Oxford City Statistic Merthyr Town
11 Wins 6
3 Draws 8
4 Losses 7
37 Goals For 29
13 Goals Against 26
2.06 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
0.72 Avg Goals Conceded 1.24
8 BTTS Yes 14
13 Over 1.5 18
9 Over 2.5 11
5 Over 3.5 4
9 Clean Sheets 5
1 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Oxford City's more proactive style and Merthyr Town's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Merthyr Town. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Merthyr Town having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Oxford City arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 24 points compared to Merthyr Town in 18 on 15, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Oxford City Analysis

Oxford City come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 24 points from 12 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 22:8 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Merthyr Town Analysis

With 15 points from 13 games and a place of 18, Merthyr Town still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 3 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 15:16, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)

Standings

National League N/S: North
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 12 8 2 2 24:7 17 26
W L D W W
2 12 7 3 2 22:8 14 24
D W D W L
3 12 7 3 2 18:11 7 24
L W W D D
4 12 7 2 3 21:18 3 23
W L L W L
5 13 6 3 4 22:16 6 21
D D W W W
6 13 6 3 4 23:19 4 21
W W W W L
7 12 6 2 4 15:12 3 20
L W W L L
8 13 6 2 5 23:23 0 20
W D L L W
9 12 6 1 5 16:16 0 19
W L D L W
10 13 5 4 4 18:23 -5 19
D L L D W
11 12 5 2 5 18:12 6 17
W L D W L
12 12 5 2 5 14:11 3 17
L L L W W
13 12 5 2 5 20:21 -1 17
L W W L W
14 13 5 2 6 15:20 -5 17
D D W L W
15 12 5 1 6 14:13 1 16
D W W W L
16 12 4 4 4 12:13 -1 16
D W L D L
17 13 4 3 6 19:18 1 15
L W L D D
18 13 3 6 4 15:16 -1 15
L D D L D
19 13 5 0 8 16:21 -5 15
W W W L L
20 13 4 3 6 15:24 -9 15
L L W W D
21 13 3 4 6 13:20 -7 13
D W L L D
22 13 3 2 8 17:24 -7 11
W L D D L
23 13 2 4 7 13:23 -10 10
D L L D L
24 12 1 4 7 12:26 -14 7
L L D D L
Promotion - National League
Promotion - National League North (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - National League North (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation