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🇺🇸 USA › MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
12.09.2026 23:30
Exploria Stadium
Referee: Jon Freemon, USA
Orlando City SC
Match Timeline
Toronto FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
20'
Luis Otávio
Orlando City SC
🟨
27'
Joran Gerbet
Orlando City SC
VAR
33'
Walker Zimmerman
Orlando City SC
VAR
45+5'
Martín Ojeda
Orlando City SC
⚽
45'
A. Griezmann · Assist: Z. Taifi
Orlando City SC
🔄
46'
J. Gerbet ↔ W. Cartagena
Orlando City SC
🔄
46'
T. Corbeanu ↔ A. Coello
Toronto FC
🟨
54'
Derrick Etienne
Toronto FC
🟨
60'
Alonso Coello
Toronto FC
🔄
64'
T. Spicer ↔ B. Rhein
Orlando City SC
🔄
64'
M. Ojeda ↔ D. Dike
Orlando City SC
🔄
65'
Matheus Pereira ↔ N. Gomis
Toronto FC
🔄
65'
D. Etienne ↔ M. Henry
Toronto FC
🔄
70'
A. Griezmann ↔ J. Ellis
Orlando City SC
🔄
71'
M. Cimermancic ↔ E. Aristizabal
Toronto FC
🔄
80'
M. Pasalic ↔ H. Sarajian
Orlando City SC
🔄
81'
B. Kuscevic ↔ R. Edwards
Toronto FC
⚽
82'
H. Sarajian · Assist: D. Dike
Orlando City SC
🟨
90+1'
Iago Silva
Orlando City SC
⚽
90'
I. Angulo · Assist: J. Ellis
Orlando City SC

Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 66.1%
Odds 1.25
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds 1.40
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.41
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
66.1%
1.25 ▥
BTTS Yes
88%
1.40 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.41 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
79%
1.83 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.88 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
7.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Orlando City SC Win 43.4%
Draw 22.7%
Toronto FC Win 33.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Orlando City SC1.69
Toronto FC1.94
Recent Form (Last 5)
Orlando City SC Orlando City SC
WWDLW
48 GF / 66 GA
Toronto FC Toronto FC
WLDWL
48 GF / 48 GA
Key Stats
1.71
Average Goals Scored
1.66
2.36
Average Goals Conceded
1.66
20
BTTS Yes
23
21
Over 2.5
19
4.83
Shots on Goal
4.54

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 28 matches
Toronto FC Toronto FC 29 matches
Orlando City SC Statistic Toronto FC
10 Wins 9
5 Draws 12
13 Losses 8
48 Goals For 48
66 Goals Against 48
1.71 Avg Goals Scored 1.66
2.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1.66
20 BTTS Yes 23
25 Over 1.5 25
21 Over 2.5 19
16 Over 3.5 10
3 Clean Sheets 4
5 Failed To Score 4
4.83 Shots On Goal 4.54
12.13 Total Shots 11.96
4.08 Corners 5.08
48.7% Ball Possession 45.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Toronto FC. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Orlando City SC Analysis

Orlando City SC sit 9 with 25 points after 22 league matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 11 losses with goals at 37:54 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Martín Ojeda (9 goals), Tyrese Spicer (3 goals), Antoine Griezmann (2 goals), with creative support from Justin Ellis (4 assists), Adrián Marín (3 assists), Eduard Atuesta (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Toronto FC Analysis

From their first 22 matches, Toronto FC have collected 25 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. The record of 5 wins, 10 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 32:38 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Dániel Sallói (3 goals), Emilio Aristizábal (3 goals), Kobe Franklin (2 goals), with creative support from Dániel Sallói (2 assists), Kobe Franklin (2 assists), Jonathan Osorio (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Orlando City SC won 9 times, Toronto FC won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 29:18 from Orlando City SC's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (77.3%)
Predicted formations: Orlando City SC 4-2-3-1 / Toronto FC 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Orlando City SC 3, Toronto FC 5
H2H summary: Orlando City SC wins 9, draws 2, Toronto FC wins 4

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 18 6 3 55:21 34 60
W W D L D
2 27 14 4 9 45:36 9 46
L W W W L
3 27 12 10 5 64:50 14 46
L D D D D
4 27 13 6 8 49:39 10 45
W W L L D
5 27 12 7 8 47:38 9 43
L W D W D
6 27 11 6 10 54:44 10 39
W W W W W
7 27 10 4 13 48:64 -16 34
L L W W W
8 27 9 6 12 34:51 -17 33
L W W L D
9 27 8 9 10 41:36 5 33
D L W L D
10 26 8 9 9 55:64 -9 33
L D D L L
11 26 6 12 8 34:42 -8 30
D L D W D
12 27 8 5 14 39:43 -4 29
W W L L W
13 27 6 11 10 39:51 -12 29
L L L W D
14 27 7 6 14 32:45 -13 27
D W D L D
15 27 6 6 15 34:54 -20 24
W L L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)