🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
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Exploria Stadium

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 92.8%
Odds 1.22
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.36
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.39
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
92.8%
1.22
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.36
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.39
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
86.1%
1.18
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.33
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.00
Probability Distribution
Orlando City SC Win 45%
Draw 7.2%
Chicago Fire Win 47.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Orlando City SC1.52
Chicago Fire2.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
Orlando City SC Orlando City SC
WWDLW
38 GF / 58 GA
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire
WLDWL
43 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.65
Average Goals Scored
1.79
2.52
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
16
BTTS Yes
15
17
Over 2.5
17
4.53
Shots on Goal
5.06

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 23 matches
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 24 matches
Orlando City SC Statistic Chicago Fire
7 Wins 12
4 Draws 5
12 Losses 7
38 Goals For 43
58 Goals Against 32
1.65 Avg Goals Scored 1.79
2.52 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
16 BTTS Yes 15
21 Over 1.5 18
17 Over 2.5 17
14 Over 3.5 10
2 Clean Sheets 9
5 Failed To Score 3
4.53 Shots On Goal 5.06
11.16 Total Shots 14.11
3.58 Corners 4.33
44.1% Ball Possession 51.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Chicago Fire's more proactive style and Orlando City SC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Chicago Fire carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 29 points while Orlando City SC sit 10 on 20, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Chicago Fire.

Orlando City SC Analysis

So far, Orlando City SC have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 20 points from 18 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 2 draws, and 10 losses, while the 30:47 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Martín Ojeda (9 goals), T. Spicer (2 goals), G. Dorsey (2 goals), with creative support from Justin Ellis (3 assists), Adrián Marín (3 assists), Eduard Atuesta (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Chicago Fire Analysis

Chicago Fire approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 29 points after 17 outings. With 9 wins, 2 draws, and 6 defeats plus a goal balance of 32:23, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Hugo Cuypers (8 goals), Philip Zinckernagel (5 goals), Maren Haile-Selassie (3 goals), with creative support from Philip Zinckernagel (6 assists), Maren Haile-Selassie (3 assists), Jonathan Bamba (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Orlando City SC won 6 times, Chicago Fire won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:25 from Orlando City SC's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.8%)
Predicted formations: Orlando City SC 4-4-2 / Chicago Fire 4-4-2
Missing players: Orlando City SC 5, Chicago Fire 4
H2H summary: Orlando City SC wins 6, draws 4, Chicago Fire wins 5
Last matches: Orlando City SC
15.08.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
1
1
D
01.08.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
New York Red Bulls
2
3
L
25.07.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Nashville SC
1
0
W
23.07.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
San Jose Earthquakes
4
0
W
23.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
2
6
L
16.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Atlanta United FC
1
1
D
13.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Philadelphia Union
4
3
W
09.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
CF Montreal
0
2
L
02.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Inter Miami
4
3
W
25.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
DC United
2
3
L
22.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Charlotte
4
1
W
18.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Houston Dynamo
0
1
L
12.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Columbus Crew
1
1
D
05.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Los Angeles FC
0
6
L
21.03.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Nashville SC
0
5
L
14.03.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
CF Montreal
2
1
W
07.03.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
New York City FC
0
5
L
02.03.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Inter Miami
2
4
L
22.02.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
New York Red Bulls
1
2
L
15.02.26
Fri
Orlando City SC
Colorado Rapids
1
4
L
Last matches: Chicago Fire
16.08.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Portland Timbers
2
1
W
02.08.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Charlotte
2
1
W
25.07.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
New York City FC
1
3
L
22.07.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Inter Miami
2
3
L
24.05.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Toronto FC
2
1
W
16.05.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
CF Montreal
2
0
W
13.05.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
DC United
3
1
W
09.05.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
New York Red Bulls
1
3
L
03.05.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
FC Cincinnati
2
3
L
26.04.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Sporting Kansas City
5
0
W
18.04.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
FC Cincinnati
3
3
D
12.04.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Atlanta United FC
1
0
W
05.04.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Nashville SC
1
0
W
21.03.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Philadelphia Union
2
1
W
15.03.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
DC United
1
2
L
08.03.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Columbus Crew
0
0
D
28.02.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
CF Montreal
3
0
W
22.02.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Houston Dynamo
1
2
L
14.02.26
Fri
Chicago Fire
Portland Timbers
3
4
L
13.02.26
Fri
Chicago Fire
Indy Eleven
0
0
D
H2H: Orlando City SC vs Chicago Fire
23.10.25
H2H
Chicago Fire
Orlando City SC
3
1
L
31.05.25
H2H
Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire
1
3
L
04.05.25
H2H
Chicago Fire
Orlando City SC
0
0
D
22.06.24
H2H
Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire
4
2
W
30.05.24
H2H
Chicago Fire
Orlando City SC
1
1
D
21.08.23
H2H
Chicago Fire
Orlando City SC
1
3
W
01.07.23
H2H
Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire
3
1
W
09.04.22
H2H
Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire
1
0
W
05.03.22
H2H
Chicago Fire
Orlando City SC
0
0
D
22.08.21
H2H
Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire
1
0
W
08.07.21
H2H
Chicago Fire
Orlando City SC
3
1
L
19.09.20
H2H
Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire
4
1
W
06.10.19
H2H
Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire
2
5
L
09.03.19
H2H
Chicago Fire
Orlando City SC
1
1
D
16.09.18
H2H
Chicago Fire
Orlando City SC
4
0
L
Last matches: Orlando City SC
15.08.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
1
1
D
25.07.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Nashville SC
1
0
W
16.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Atlanta United FC
1
1
D
13.05.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Philadelphia Union
4
3
W
22.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Charlotte
4
1
W
18.04.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Houston Dynamo
0
1
L
14.03.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
CF Montreal
2
1
W
02.03.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
Inter Miami
2
4
L
22.02.26
Maj
Orlando City SC
New York Red Bulls
1
2
L
15.02.26
Fri
Orlando City SC
Colorado Rapids
1
4
L
11.02.26
Fri
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
3
2
W
07.02.26
Fri
Orlando City SC
Nashville SC
2
2
D
24.01.26
Fri
Orlando City SC
Lexington
1
2
L
H2H at home: Orlando City SC
31.05.25
H2H
Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire
1
3
L
22.06.24
H2H
Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire
4
2
W
01.07.23
H2H
Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire
3
1
W
09.04.22
H2H
Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire
1
0
W
22.08.21
H2H
Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire
1
0
W
19.09.20
H2H
Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire
4
1
W
06.10.19
H2H
Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire
2
5
L
Last matches: Chicago Fire
25.07.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
New York City FC
1
3
L
22.07.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Inter Miami
2
3
L
16.05.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
CF Montreal
2
0
W
13.05.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
DC United
3
1
W
18.04.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
FC Cincinnati
3
3
D
21.03.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Philadelphia Union
2
1
W
08.03.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Columbus Crew
0
0
D
22.02.26
Maj
Chicago Fire
Houston Dynamo
1
2
L
13.02.26
Fri
Chicago Fire
Indy Eleven
0
0
D
11.02.26
Fri
Chicago Fire
Austin
2
2
D
08.02.26
Fri
Chicago Fire
Los Angeles Galaxy
3
2
W
01.02.26
Fri
Chicago Fire
Indy Eleven
0
0
D
24.01.26
Fri
Chicago Fire
Sporting Kansas City
1
0
W
H2H away: Chicago Fire
31.05.25
H2H
Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire
1
3
W
22.06.24
H2H
Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire
4
2
L
01.07.23
H2H
Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire
3
1
L
09.04.22
H2H
Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire
1
0
L
22.08.21
H2H
Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire
1
0
L
19.09.20
H2H
Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire
4
1
L
06.10.19
H2H
Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire
2
5
W
Showing odds from: Bet365
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.27
Draw 4.05
Home 2.84
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.71
Draw 2.72
Home 3.25
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.11
Over 2.5 1.39
Over 3.0 1.57
Over 3.25 1.78
Over 3.5 1.98
Over 3.75 2.21
Over 4.0 2.58
Over 4.5 3.13
Over 5.5 5.55
Under 1.5 6.91
Under 2.5 3.06
Under 3.0 2.48
Under 3.25 2.11
Under 3.5 1.89
Under 3.75 1.71
Under 4.0 1.53
Under 4.5 1.38
Under 5.5 1.16
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.30
Draw 4.00
Home 2.75
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.75
Draw 2.60
Home 3.10
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.40
Draw 2.88
Home 2.75
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 1.5 1.10
Over 2.5 1.40
Over 3.5 1.91
Over 4.5 3.25
Over 5.5 5.50
Over 6.5 11.00
Over 7.5 21.00
Over 8.5 41.00
Under 0.5 21.00
Under 1.5 7.00
Under 2.5 2.88
Under 3.5 1.80
Under 4.5 1.33
Under 5.5 1.14
Under 6.5 1.05
Under 7.5 1.01
Under 8.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.25
Draw 3.85
Home 2.75
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.63
Draw 2.45
Home 2.95
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.45
Draw 3.00
Home 2.85
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.09
Over 2.5 1.37
Over 2.75 1.44
Over 3.0 1.55
Over 3.25 1.75
Over 3.5 1.94
Over 3.75 2.18
Over 4.0 2.55
Over 4.25 2.85
Over 4.5 3.20
Over 5.5 5.60
Over 6.5 10.00
Under 1.5 6.50
Under 2.5 3.00
Under 2.75 2.70
Under 3.0 2.38
Under 3.25 2.02
Under 3.5 1.81
Under 3.75 1.64
Under 4.0 1.47
Under 4.25 1.40
Under 4.5 1.33
Under 5.5 1.12
Under 6.5 1.04

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 4 2 39:15 24 43
W D L W W
2 19 11 5 3 46:36 10 38
L D W W W
3 18 10 2 6 34:24 10 32
W W L L W
4 19 9 3 7 29:25 4 30
L L D W D
5 19 8 4 7 32:28 4 28
W L W D W
6 19 7 6 6 46:45 1 27
D W L W W
7 19 7 5 7 33:27 6 26
L D W W L
8 19 7 4 8 30:41 -11 25
L W L L W
9 19 5 9 5 27:30 -3 24
D D W D D
10 19 6 3 10 31:48 -17 21
D L W W L
11 19 5 5 9 27:31 -4 20
L D W L W
12 19 4 8 7 26:33 -7 20
W D L D D
13 19 5 4 10 28:35 -7 19
W W W W L
14 19 4 5 10 25:36 -11 17
D D L L D
15 19 4 3 12 21:34 -13 15
W L L D L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)

Missing Players

Orlando City SC 5 missing
-
B. Ojeda
Questionable Foot Injury
OUT
-
N. Miller
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
E. Atuesta
Questionable Thigh Injury
OUT
-
M. Ojeda
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
-
B. Rhein
Questionable Muscle Injury
OUT
Chicago Fire 4 missing
-
M. Mbokazi
Missing Fixture Lower-Body Injury
OUT
-
S. Oregel
Questionable Lower-Body Injury
OUT
-
C. Mueller
Questionable Inactive
OUT
-
A. Franco
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT