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LATVIA › VIRSLIGA
20.09.2026 11:00
Referee: D. Kozlovs
Ogre United
Match Timeline
Super Nova
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
45'
K. Cudars
Ogre United
🔄
46'
I. Ndiaye ↔ K. Romanovs
Super Nova
🔄
46'
N. Pathe ↔ V. Lizunovs
Super Nova
🔄
62'
J. Fokam ↔ A. Marchuk
Ogre United
🔄
62'
M. Ivulans ↔ I. Pulis
Ogre United
🔄
64'
Bamba ↔ A. Glaudans
Super Nova
🔄
69'
K. Gulbis ↔ V. Mashchenko
Ogre United
🟨
73'
E. Emsis
Super Nova
🔄
77'
R. Kirss ↔ M. Tihonovics
Super Nova
🟨
87'
A. Doroshenko
Ogre United
🔄
90'
L. Estevez Fernandez ↔ R. Ziemelis
Ogre United
🔄
90'
A. Doroshenko ↔ T. Marusiy
Ogre United

Ogre United vs Super Nova Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 70.7%
Odds 2.13
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.73
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
70.7%
2.13 ▥
BTTS Yes
63.2%
1.67 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.73 ▥
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.50 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Ogre United Win 23.7%
Draw 5.6%
Super Nova Win 70.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ogre United1.13
Super Nova1.62
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ogre United Ogre United
WWDLW
30 GF / 79 GA
Super Nova Super Nova
WLDWL
35 GF / 47 GA
Key Stats
0.94
Average Goals Scored
1.06
2.47
Average Goals Conceded
1.42
20
BTTS Yes
19
21
Over 2.5
16
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ogre United Ogre United 32 matches
Super Nova Super Nova 33 matches
Ogre United Statistic Super Nova
3 Wins 11
6 Draws 6
23 Losses 16
30 Goals For 35
79 Goals Against 47
0.94 Avg Goals Scored 1.06
2.47 Avg Goals Conceded 1.42
20 BTTS Yes 19
28 Over 1.5 24
21 Over 2.5 16
15 Over 3.5 5
1 Clean Sheets 8
11 Failed To Score 8
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Super Nova having the stronger overall control. Ogre United have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Super Nova carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 6 with 35 points while Ogre United sit 10 on 15, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Super Nova.

Ogre United Analysis

Ogre United approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 15 points from 29 matches. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 6 draws, and 20 defeats, and the 29:75 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Super Nova Analysis

Super Nova sit 6 with 35 points after 28 league matches. The record of 10 wins, 5 draws, and 13 defeats, together with a 29:38 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Ogre United won 1 times, Super Nova won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:10 from Ogre United's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.4%)
Predicted formations: Ogre United - / Super Nova 4-4-2
H2H summary: Ogre United wins 1, draws 1, Super Nova wins 3

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 23 5 2 71:22 49 74
D W D W D
2 31 22 7 2 86:30 56 73
W W D D L
3 31 18 7 6 49:30 19 61
D W D W D
4 31 12 7 12 41:43 -2 43
D D D W L
5 31 10 9 12 35:35 0 39
D L D L D
6 30 10 5 15 29:40 -11 35
L L W W D
7 31 8 8 15 32:49 -17 32
L D L W W
8 31 5 11 15 21:52 -31 26
D D L W L
9 31 5 9 17 44:61 -17 24
D L W L L
10 31 4 6 21 30:76 -46 18
W L D L L