KENYA SUPER LEAGUE
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 91%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 75.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 87.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
91%
-
BTTS BTTS No
75.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
87.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nzoia Sugar Win 91%
Draw 0%
Luanda Villa Win 9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nzoia Sugar1.09
Luanda Villa0.77
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nzoia Sugar Nzoia Sugar
WWDLW
30 GF / 27 GA
Luanda Villa Luanda Villa
WLDWL
22 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
0.97
Average Goals Scored
0.71
0.87
Average Goals Conceded
1.26
10
BTTS Yes
7
9
Over 2.5
9
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nzoia Sugar Nzoia Sugar 31 matches
Luanda Villa Luanda Villa 31 matches
Nzoia Sugar Statistic Luanda Villa
10 Wins 10
13 Draws 5
8 Losses 16
30 Goals For 22
27 Goals Against 39
0.97 Avg Goals Scored 0.71
0.87 Avg Goals Conceded 1.26
10 BTTS Yes 7
17 Over 1.5 15
9 Over 2.5 9
7 Over 3.5 5
15 Clean Sheets 10
14 Failed To Score 16
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Nzoia Sugar's more proactive style and Luanda Villa's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Luanda Villa. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Luanda Villa having the stronger overall control.

Nzoia Sugar Analysis

So far, Nzoia Sugar have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 43 points from 31 matches. The record of 10 wins, 13 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 30:27 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Luanda Villa Analysis

Luanda Villa sit 13 with 35 points after 31 league matches. The record of 10 wins, 5 draws, and 16 defeats, together with a 22:39 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 10 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Nzoia Sugar won 1 times, Luanda Villa won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:6 from Nzoia Sugar's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
H2H summary: Nzoia Sugar wins 1, draws 2, Luanda Villa wins 1
Last matches: Nzoia Sugar
13.06.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kibera Black Stars
1
0
W
07.06.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
01.06.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Fortune Sacco
3
1
W
27.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Talanta
0
2
L
24.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Naivas
0
1
L
17.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MCF
0
1
L
03.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kabati Youth FC
1
1
D
26.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Migori Youth
0
4
L
19.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Darajani Gogo
2
0
W
12.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Soy United
1
0
W
04.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MOFA
0
2
L
29.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
3K
1
3
L
21.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Mwatate United
3
1
W
14.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Equity Bank
0
1
L
08.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kisumu All Stars
1
0
W
01.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Nairobi City Stars
0
0
D
20.02.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Vihiga United FC
4
0
W
15.02.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Gucha Stars
0
2
L
31.01.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Equity Bank
0
1
L
25.01.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MOFA
1
1
D
Last matches: Luanda Villa
13.06.26
Sup
Luanda Villa
Soy United
0
1
L
07.06.26
Sup
Luanda Villa
Vihiga United FC
1
1
D
01.06.26
Sup
Luanda Villa
Mombasa Elite
1
0
W
28.05.26
Sup
Luanda Villa
Kabati Youth FC
0
5
L
23.05.26
Sup
Luanda Villa
Gucha Stars
1
2
L
17.05.26
Sup
Luanda Villa
Mwatate United
2
0
W
03.05.26
Sup
Luanda Villa
Darajani Gogo
1
0
W
26.04.26
Sup
Luanda Villa
Kisumu All Stars
2
0
W
19.04.26
Sup
Luanda Villa
Kibera Black Stars
0
1
L
10.04.26
Sup
Luanda Villa
MOFA
1
1
D
05.04.26
Sup
Luanda Villa
Migori Youth
0
3
L
29.03.26
Sup
Luanda Villa
Equity Bank
0
1
L
22.03.26
Sup
Luanda Villa
Nairobi City Stars
1
0
W
14.03.26
Sup
Luanda Villa
Fortune Sacco
0
2
L
08.03.26
Sup
Luanda Villa
MCF
1
0
W
28.02.26
Sup
Luanda Villa
Naivas
0
3
L
22.02.26
Sup
Luanda Villa
Talanta
0
1
L
15.02.26
Sup
Luanda Villa
3K
0
5
L
01.02.26
Sup
Luanda Villa
Fortune Sacco
2
2
D
25.01.26
Sup
Luanda Villa
Migori Youth
0
4
L
H2H: Nzoia Sugar vs Luanda Villa
09.05.26
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Luanda Villa
3
3
D
17.12.25
H2H
Luanda Villa
Nzoia Sugar
0
0
D
20.04.25
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Luanda Villa
0
1
L
26.01.25
H2H
Luanda Villa
Nzoia Sugar
2
3
W
Last matches: Nzoia Sugar
13.06.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kibera Black Stars
1
0
W
01.06.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Fortune Sacco
3
1
W
24.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Naivas
0
1
L
19.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Darajani Gogo
2
0
W
04.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MOFA
0
2
L
21.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Mwatate United
3
1
W
14.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Equity Bank
0
1
L
01.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Nairobi City Stars
0
0
D
15.02.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Gucha Stars
0
2
L
18.01.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Soy United
0
2
L
22.12.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Migori Youth
1
0
W
12.12.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kabati Youth FC
0
0
D
03.12.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MCF
0
0
D
23.11.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kisumu All Stars
2
0
W
09.11.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Vihiga United FC
0
0
D
02.11.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Mombasa Elite
2
2
D
26.10.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Talanta
0
0
D
28.09.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
3K
2
1
W
H2H at home: Nzoia Sugar
09.05.26
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Luanda Villa
3
3
D
20.04.25
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Luanda Villa
0
1
L
Last matches: Luanda Villa
07.06.26
Sup
Luanda Villa
Vihiga United FC
1
1
D
28.05.26
Sup
Luanda Villa
Kabati Youth FC
0
5
L
23.05.26
Sup
Luanda Villa
Gucha Stars
1
2
L
26.04.26
Sup
Luanda Villa
Kisumu All Stars
2
0
W
10.04.26
Sup
Luanda Villa
MOFA
1
1
D
29.03.26
Sup
Luanda Villa
Equity Bank
0
1
L
14.03.26
Sup
Luanda Villa
Fortune Sacco
0
2
L
28.02.26
Sup
Luanda Villa
Naivas
0
3
L
15.02.26
Sup
Luanda Villa
3K
0
5
L
25.01.26
Sup
Luanda Villa
Migori Youth
0
4
L
11.01.26
Sup
Luanda Villa
Kibera Black Stars
1
2
L
13.12.25
Sup
Luanda Villa
Darajani Gogo
1
0
W
03.12.25
Sup
Luanda Villa
Mwatate United
1
0
W
23.11.25
Sup
Luanda Villa
MCF
0
1
L
08.11.25
Sup
Luanda Villa
Talanta
1
0
W
29.10.25
Sup
Luanda Villa
Soy United
0
1
L
11.10.25
Sup
Luanda Villa
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
05.10.25
Sup
Luanda Villa
Nairobi City Stars
0
1
L
H2H away: Luanda Villa
09.05.26
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Luanda Villa
3
3
D
20.04.25
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Luanda Villa
0
1
W

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 25 6 7 57:29 28 81
D W W W W
2 38 23 8 7 62:26 36 77
D W W D D
3 38 24 4 10 51:32 19 76
D W L D W
4 38 21 11 6 56:28 28 74
W L W W D
5 38 16 16 6 51:30 21 64
D D D D L
6 38 18 9 11 61:41 20 63
W W L L L
7 38 17 10 11 47:30 17 61
D L W W W
8 38 16 9 13 53:41 12 57
L W L W W
9 38 15 8 15 32:33 -1 53
L L D D L
10 38 14 10 14 31:27 4 52
W D L D W
11 38 12 14 12 37:36 1 50
W L W L L
12 38 12 8 18 35:41 -6 44
W L W L W
13 38 12 7 19 30:51 -21 43
L D W L L
14 38 10 9 19 32:52 -20 39
D W W W L
15 38 10 9 19 23:47 -24 39
W L L D W
16 38 9 12 17 32:44 -12 39
L L L D D
17 38 10 8 20 27:48 -21 38
W W L D W
18 38 9 10 19 24:42 -18 34
L W W L D
19 38 9 9 20 29:55 -26 30
L D L W L
20 38 6 7 25 27:64 -37 25
L L L L L
Promotion - Premier League
Relegation