KENYA SUPER LEAGUE
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 89.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 32.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 38.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
89.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
32.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
38.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nzoia Sugar Win 46.5%
Draw 10.4%
Fortune Sacco Win 43.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nzoia Sugar1
Fortune Sacco1.35
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nzoia Sugar Nzoia Sugar
WWDLW
33 GF / 34 GA
Fortune Sacco Fortune Sacco
WLDWL
56 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
0.94
Average Goals Scored
1.6
0.97
Average Goals Conceded
1.09
11
BTTS Yes
17
10
Over 2.5
16
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nzoia Sugar Nzoia Sugar 35 matches
Fortune Sacco Fortune Sacco 35 matches
Nzoia Sugar Statistic Fortune Sacco
10 Wins 16
14 Draws 9
11 Losses 10
33 Goals For 56
34 Goals Against 38
0.94 Avg Goals Scored 1.6
0.97 Avg Goals Conceded 1.09
11 BTTS Yes 17
19 Over 1.5 21
10 Over 2.5 16
8 Over 3.5 11
15 Clean Sheets 14
17 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Fortune Sacco's more proactive style and Nzoia Sugar's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Fortune Sacco. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Fortune Sacco having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Nzoia Sugar Analysis

With 44 points from 35 games and a place of 11, Nzoia Sugar still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 10 wins, 14 draws, and 11 defeats, and the 33:34 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Fortune Sacco Analysis

Fortune Sacco sit 7 with 57 points after 35 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 16 wins, 9 draws, and 10 defeats with a 56:38 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Nzoia Sugar won 1 times, Fortune Sacco won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:6 from Nzoia Sugar's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.6%)
H2H summary: Nzoia Sugar wins 1, draws 2, Fortune Sacco wins 1
Last matches: Nzoia Sugar
13.06.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kibera Black Stars
1
0
W
07.06.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
27.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Talanta
0
2
L
24.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Naivas
0
1
L
17.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MCF
0
1
L
09.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Luanda Villa
3
3
D
03.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kabati Youth FC
1
1
D
26.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Migori Youth
0
4
L
19.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Darajani Gogo
2
0
W
12.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Soy United
1
0
W
04.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MOFA
0
2
L
29.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
3K
1
3
L
21.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Mwatate United
3
1
W
14.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Equity Bank
0
1
L
08.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kisumu All Stars
1
0
W
01.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Nairobi City Stars
0
0
D
20.02.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Vihiga United FC
4
0
W
15.02.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Gucha Stars
0
2
L
31.01.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Equity Bank
0
1
L
25.01.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MOFA
1
1
D
Last matches: Fortune Sacco
13.06.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
MCF
3
0
W
07.06.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Gucha Stars
1
0
W
27.05.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Equity Bank
0
4
L
22.05.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Talanta
3
4
L
17.05.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Migori Youth
1
0
W
10.05.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
3K
1
2
L
06.05.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Soy United
1
1
D
02.05.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Mwatate United
1
0
W
25.04.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Kibera Black Stars
1
1
D
19.04.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Kisumu All Stars
2
1
W
05.04.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Darajani Gogo
4
0
W
28.03.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Naivas
3
3
D
22.03.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Mombasa Elite
1
0
W
14.03.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Luanda Villa
2
0
W
07.03.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Kabati Youth FC
9
0
W
01.03.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Vihiga United FC
0
0
D
21.02.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Nairobi City Stars
2
3
L
15.02.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
MOFA
0
1
L
01.02.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Luanda Villa
2
2
D
25.01.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Darajani Gogo
4
2
W
H2H: Nzoia Sugar vs Fortune Sacco
01.06.26
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Fortune Sacco
3
1
W
12.10.25
H2H
Fortune Sacco
Nzoia Sugar
0
0
D
06.04.25
H2H
Fortune Sacco
Nzoia Sugar
4
0
L
21.09.24
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Fortune Sacco
1
1
D
05.11.22
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Fortune Sacco
0
0
D
Last matches: Nzoia Sugar
13.06.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kibera Black Stars
1
0
W
24.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Naivas
0
1
L
09.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Luanda Villa
3
3
D
19.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Darajani Gogo
2
0
W
04.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MOFA
0
2
L
21.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Mwatate United
3
1
W
14.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Equity Bank
0
1
L
01.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Nairobi City Stars
0
0
D
15.02.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Gucha Stars
0
2
L
18.01.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Soy United
0
2
L
22.12.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Migori Youth
1
0
W
12.12.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kabati Youth FC
0
0
D
03.12.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MCF
0
0
D
23.11.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kisumu All Stars
2
0
W
09.11.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Vihiga United FC
0
0
D
02.11.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Mombasa Elite
2
2
D
26.10.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Talanta
0
0
D
28.09.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
3K
2
1
W
H2H at home: Nzoia Sugar
01.06.26
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Fortune Sacco
3
1
W
21.09.24
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Fortune Sacco
1
1
D
05.11.22
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Fortune Sacco
0
0
D
Last matches: Fortune Sacco
13.06.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
MCF
3
0
W
22.05.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Talanta
3
4
L
10.05.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
3K
1
2
L
06.05.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Soy United
1
1
D
25.04.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Kibera Black Stars
1
1
D
28.03.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Naivas
3
3
D
07.03.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Kabati Youth FC
9
0
W
21.02.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Nairobi City Stars
2
3
L
01.02.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Luanda Villa
2
2
D
25.01.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Darajani Gogo
4
2
W
10.01.26
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Kisumu All Stars
1
2
L
12.12.25
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Mwatate United
3
1
W
04.12.25
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Migori Youth
0
1
L
30.11.25
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Vihiga United FC
1
0
W
15.11.25
Sup
Fortune Sacco
MOFA
1
2
L
02.11.25
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Gucha Stars
3
2
W
25.10.25
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Equity Bank
1
0
W
05.10.25
Sup
Fortune Sacco
Mombasa Elite
1
2
L
H2H away: Fortune Sacco
01.06.26
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Fortune Sacco
3
1
L
21.09.24
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Fortune Sacco
1
1
D
05.11.22
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Fortune Sacco
0
0
D

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 25 6 7 57:29 28 81
D W W W W
2 38 23 8 7 62:26 36 77
D W W D D
3 38 24 4 10 51:32 19 76
D W L D W
4 38 21 11 6 56:28 28 74
W L W W D
5 38 16 16 6 51:30 21 64
D D D D L
6 38 18 9 11 61:41 20 63
W W L L L
7 38 17 10 11 47:30 17 61
D L W W W
8 38 16 9 13 53:41 12 57
L W L W W
9 38 15 8 15 32:33 -1 53
L L D D L
10 38 14 10 14 31:27 4 52
W D L D W
11 38 12 14 12 37:36 1 50
W L W L L
12 38 12 8 18 35:41 -6 44
W L W L W
13 38 12 7 19 30:51 -21 43
L D W L L
14 38 10 9 19 32:52 -20 39
D W W W L
15 38 10 9 19 23:47 -24 39
W L L D W
16 38 9 12 17 32:44 -12 39
L L L D D
17 38 10 8 20 27:48 -21 38
W W L D W
18 38 9 10 19 24:42 -18 34
L W W L D
19 38 9 9 20 29:55 -26 30
L D L W L
20 38 6 7 25 27:64 -37 25
L L L L L
Promotion - Premier League
Relegation