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BRAZIL › SERIE B
25.09.2026 22:30
Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biase
Referee: Lucas Canetto Bellote
Novorizontino
Match Timeline
São Bernardo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
38'
Helder Maciel
São Bernardo
VAR
52'
Robson
Novorizontino
🟨
58'
Augusto
São Bernardo
🔄
60'
Reidiney ↔ Juninho
Novorizontino
🔄
60'
Nicolas Careca ↔ Vinicius Paiva
Novorizontino
🔄
60'
Felipe Garcia ↔ Fabricio Daniel
São Bernardo
🔄
70'
Leo Naldi ↔ Carlao
Novorizontino
🔄
74'
Foguinho ↔ Lucas Lima
São Bernardo
🔄
74'
Pedrinho ↔ D. Davi
São Bernardo
🔄
85'
Robson ↔ Diego Galo
Novorizontino
🔄
85'
Romulo ↔ Tavinho
Novorizontino
🔄
85'
Mario Sergio ↔ Para
São Bernardo
🔄
85'
Pedro Vitor ↔ Echapora
São Bernardo

Novorizontino vs São Bernardo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 50.9%
Odds 1.58
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.87
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
50.9%
1.58 ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
1.83 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.87 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.06 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.38 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Novorizontino Win 50.9%
Draw 13.4%
São Bernardo Win 35.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Novorizontino1.44
São Bernardo1.2
Recent Form (Last 5)
Novorizontino Novorizontino
WWDLW
49 GF / 27 GA
São Bernardo São Bernardo
WLDWL
40 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.69
Average Goals Scored
1.38
0.93
Average Goals Conceded
1.07
16
BTTS Yes
17
17
Over 2.5
13
5.28
Shots on Goal
4.34

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Novorizontino Novorizontino 29 matches
São Bernardo São Bernardo 29 matches
Novorizontino Statistic São Bernardo
14 Wins 11
8 Draws 8
7 Losses 10
49 Goals For 40
27 Goals Against 31
1.69 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
0.93 Avg Goals Conceded 1.07
16 BTTS Yes 17
21 Over 1.5 21
17 Over 2.5 13
8 Over 3.5 5
9 Clean Sheets 8
7 Failed To Score 5
5.28 Shots On Goal 4.34
15.17 Total Shots 11.93
6.24 Corners 4.76
48.5% Ball Possession 48.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Novorizontino arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 50 points compared to São Bernardo in 13 on 38, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward São Bernardo. Novorizontino come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Novorizontino Analysis

Novorizontino come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 50 points after 28 matches. They have recorded 14 wins, 8 draws, and 6 losses, with a 48:25 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on Robson (9 goals), Romulo (7 goals), Matheus Bianqui (4 goals), with creative support from Romulo (7 assists), Robson (4 assists), Juninho (3 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

São Bernardo Analysis

São Bernardo sit 13 with 38 points after 28 league matches. The record of 10 wins, 8 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 39:31 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Pedro Vitor (4 goals), Rodrigo Ferreira (4 goals), Pedrinho (3 goals), with creative support from Romisson (4 assists), Pedro Vitor (3 assists), Eduardo (3 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 8 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Novorizontino won 2 times, São Bernardo won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:3 from Novorizontino's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.6%)
Predicted formations: Novorizontino 4-2-3-1 / São Bernardo 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Novorizontino wins 2, draws 2, São Bernardo wins 0

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 17 8 7 37:19 18 59
W W W L L
2 32 17 7 8 44:31 13 58
D W W W D
3 32 16 9 7 54:27 27 57
W W D L D
4 32 15 11 6 37:27 10 56
W D D W D
5 32 15 8 9 33:28 5 53
L W W L L
6 32 14 10 8 40:30 10 52
L W W L W
7 32 15 6 11 49:45 4 51
W L W L W
8 32 13 11 8 44:34 10 50
W W L W L
9 32 13 9 10 44:43 1 48
L L D W D
10 32 11 14 7 32:25 7 47
D W L W D
11 32 13 6 13 32:40 -8 45
W L L W W
12 32 12 9 11 44:34 10 45
L W D W W
13 32 11 9 12 39:40 -1 42
L D W L D
14 32 11 9 12 35:39 -4 42
W W D W D
15 32 10 12 10 38:37 1 42
L L D D W
16 32 10 8 14 36:38 -2 38
W L W D L
17 32 9 6 17 32:43 -11 33
W L L L D
18 32 7 7 18 40:47 -7 28
L L L L W
19 32 4 5 23 21:53 -32 17
L L L L L
20 32 3 4 25 17:68 -51 13
L L L W L
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