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BRAZIL › SERIE B
21.07.2026 22:30
Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi
Referee: Andre Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento, Brazil
Novorizontino
Match Timeline
Criciuma
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
45+1'
Luciano Castan
Criciuma
🔄
46'
Fellipe Mateus ↔ Caue Santos
Criciuma
🟨
56'
Luís Oyama
Novorizontino
🔄
62'
Reidiney ↔ Juninho
Novorizontino
🔄
64'
R. Otero ↔ Ronald Lopes
Criciuma
🔄
65'
Waguininho ↔ Joao Carlos
Criciuma
🔄
72'
Vinicius Paiva ↔ Leo Naldi
Novorizontino
🔄
72'
Luis Oyama ↔ Ronald Barcellos
Novorizontino
🟨
74'
Alexis Alvarino
Novorizontino
🔄
81'
Eduardo ↔ Diego Goncalves
Criciuma
⚽
82'
Diego Goncalves · Assist: Cesar Martins
Criciuma
VAR
83'
Diego Gonçalves
Criciuma
🔄
84'
Matheus Bianqui ↔ C. Ortiz
Novorizontino
🔄
85'
Romulo ↔ Diego Mathias
Novorizontino
🟨
87'
Leo Naldi
Novorizontino
🔄
90+4'
Gui Lobo ↔ Thiaguinho
Criciuma

Novorizontino vs Criciuma Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 88.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
88.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Novorizontino Win 47.3%
Draw 11.4%
Criciuma Win 41.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Novorizontino1.2
Criciuma1.11
Recent Form (Last 5)
Novorizontino Novorizontino
WWDLW
28 GF / 17 GA
Criciuma Criciuma
WLDWL
22 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.56
Average Goals Scored
1.22
0.94
Average Goals Conceded
0.67
9
BTTS Yes
9
10
Over 2.5
4
4.83
Shots on Goal
3.72

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Novorizontino Novorizontino 18 matches
Criciuma Criciuma 18 matches
Novorizontino Statistic Criciuma
8 Wins 10
6 Draws 6
4 Losses 2
28 Goals For 22
17 Goals Against 12
1.56 Avg Goals Scored 1.22
0.94 Avg Goals Conceded 0.67
9 BTTS Yes 9
13 Over 1.5 10
10 Over 2.5 4
4 Over 3.5 2
7 Clean Sheets 8
4 Failed To Score 2
4.83 Shots On Goal 3.72
14.22 Total Shots 13.06
5.11 Corners 6
48.2% Ball Possession 51%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Criciuma. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Criciuma look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Novorizontino expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Criciuma in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Criciuma having the stronger overall control.

Novorizontino Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 30 points from 17 games, Novorizontino bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 8 wins, 6 draws, and 3 defeats plus a goal balance of 28:16, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Robson (5 goals), Rômulo (2 goals), Tavinho (2 goals), with creative support from Rômulo (5 assists), Robson (2 assists), Juninho (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, the split of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Criciuma Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 33 points from 17 games, Criciuma bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 9 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses, with a 20:12 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Fellipe Mateus (3 goals), R. Otero (2 goals), Waguininho (2 goals), with creative support from R. Otero (2 assists), Romarinho (2 assists), Waguininho (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Novorizontino won 4 times, Criciuma won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:7 from Novorizontino's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.78 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.6%)
Predicted formations: Novorizontino 4-2-3-1 / Criciuma 3-4-3
H2H summary: Novorizontino wins 4, draws 2, Criciuma wins 3

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 17 8 7 37:19 18 59
W W W L L
2 32 17 7 8 44:31 13 58
D W W W D
3 32 16 9 7 54:27 27 57
W W D L D
4 32 15 11 6 37:27 10 56
W D D W D
5 32 15 8 9 33:28 5 53
L W W L L
6 32 14 10 8 40:30 10 52
L W W L W
7 32 15 6 11 49:45 4 51
W L W L W
8 32 13 11 8 44:34 10 50
W W L W L
9 32 13 9 10 44:43 1 48
L L D W D
10 32 11 14 7 32:25 7 47
D W L W D
11 32 13 6 13 32:40 -8 45
W L L W W
12 32 12 9 11 44:34 10 45
L W D W W
13 32 11 9 12 39:40 -1 42
L D W L D
14 32 11 9 12 35:39 -4 42
W W D W D
15 32 10 12 10 38:37 1 42
L L D D W
16 32 10 8 14 36:38 -2 38
W L W D L
17 32 9 6 17 32:43 -11 33
W L L L D
18 32 7 7 18 40:47 -7 28
L L L L W
19 32 4 5 23 21:53 -32 17
L L L L L
20 32 3 4 25 17:68 -51 13
L L L W L
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