ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Referee: K. Laane
Nõmme United
Match Timeline
Paide
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
9'
Daniel Cabral
Paide
14'
D. Luts · Assist: M. Miller
Paide
🟨
29'
M. Miller
Paide
🟨
34'
Daniel Cabral
Paide
🟨
47'
G. Kabal
Nõmme United
🔄
56'
G. Kabal ↔ B. Chisala
Nõmme United
🔄
59'
M. Jobarteh ↔ H. Anier
Paide
🔄
59'
M. Miller ↔ R. Smirnov
Paide
🔄
65'
O. Dacosta ↔ B. Vain
Nõmme United
🔄
65'
K. Oostenbrink ↔ E. Ounapuu
Nõmme United
65'
H. Anier · Assist: Victor Hugo
Paide
66'
B. Chisala · Assist: B. Vain
Nõmme United
🔄
75'
Daniel Cabral ↔ P. A. Cham
Paide
80'
A. Frolov
Nõmme United
🔄
81'
R. Nigula ↔ G. Juhkam
Paide
🔄
86'
K. Laanelaid ↔ A. Alteberg
Nõmme United
🟨
89'
R. Smirnov
Paide

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 89.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 90.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
89.8%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
90.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nõmme United Win 48.3%
Draw 10.2%
Paide Win 41.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nõmme United2.05
Paide2.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nõmme United Nõmme United
WWDLW
43 GF / 43 GA
Paide Paide
WLDWL
32 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
2.53
Average Goals Scored
1.78
2.53
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
14
BTTS Yes
13
16
Over 2.5
12
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nõmme United Nõmme United 17 matches
Paide Paide 18 matches
Nõmme United Statistic Paide
8 Wins 9
2 Draws 4
7 Losses 5
43 Goals For 32
43 Goals Against 24
2.53 Avg Goals Scored 1.78
2.53 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
14 BTTS Yes 13
17 Over 1.5 13
16 Over 2.5 12
12 Over 3.5 9
1 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Paide's more proactive style and Nõmme United's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Paide. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Paide having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Nõmme United Analysis

From their first 10 matches, Nõmme United have collected 13 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Their overall return of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 23:24 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by O. Dacosta (4 goals), Z. Beglarishvili (4 goals), E. Ounapuu (3 goals), with creative support from Z. Beglarishvili (4 assists), H. Jarvelaid (4 assists), A. Frolov (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Paide Analysis

Paide come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 17 points from 10 matches. The record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 17:12 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Daniel Cabral (3 goals), M. P. Sohna (3 goals), H. Anier (2 goals), with creative support from H. Anier (3 assists), M. P. Sohna (1 assists), K. Piht (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Nõmme United won 0 times, Paide won 7 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:25 from Nõmme United's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 4.43 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.8%)
H2H summary: Nõmme United wins 0, draws 0, Paide wins 7

Lineups

Nõmme United
Formation
Paide
G. Lagus
G. Lagus
R. Chanda
R. Chanda
K. Oostenbrink
K. Oostenbrink
M. Palts
M. Palts
K. Laanelaid
K. Laanelaid
G. Kabal
G. Kabal
A. Frolov
A. Frolov
H. Jarvelaid
H. Jarvelaid
Z. Beglarishvili
Z. Beglarishvili
O. Dacosta
O. Dacosta
K. Matas
K. Matas
E. Jarju
E. Jarju
M. Lilander
M. Lilander
Victor Hugo
🎯
Victor Hugo
Andrade
Andrade
R. Nigula
R. Nigula
Daniel Cabral
Daniel Cabral
O. Hoim
O. Hoim
M. Jobarteh
M. Jobarteh
M. Miller
🎯
M. Miller
D. Luts
D. Luts
A. Badamosi
A. Badamosi
Nõmme United 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
G. Lagus
55
R. Chanda
26
K. Oostenbrink
↓ 65'
6
M. Palts
23
K. Laanelaid
↓ 86'
24
G. Kabal
↓ 56' 🟨 47'
10
A. Frolov
⚽ 80'
45
H. Jarvelaid
49
Z. Beglarishvili
16
O. Dacosta
↓ 65'
20
K. Matas
Substitutes
91
R. Ortega
71
G. Purg
3
S. Merilai
4
A. Alteberg
↑ 86'
5
J. Kais
8
B. Vain
🎯 66' ↑ 65'
9
E. Ounapuu
↑ 65'
11
B. Chisala
⚽ 66' ↑ 56'
13
A. Truuvaart
14
N. Vassiljev
22
A. Radomskiy
Paide 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
99
E. Jarju
2
M. Lilander
3
Victor Hugo
🎯 65'
4
Andrade
24
R. Nigula
↓ 81'
6
Daniel Cabral
⚽ 9' ↓ 75' 🟨 34'
28
O. Hoim
14
M. Jobarteh
↓ 59'
10
M. Miller
🎯 14' ↓ 59' 🟨 29'
77
D. Luts
⚽ 14'
30
A. Badamosi
Substitutes
12
M. Meerits
5
G. Juhkam
↑ 81'
9
H. Anier
⚽ 65' ↑ 59'
11
M. P. Sohna
15
H. Ojamaa
17
P. A. Cham
↑ 75'
21
R. Smirnov
↑ 59' 🟨 89'
27
N. Baranov
43
Willian Lins
Last matches: Nõmme United
20.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Laagri
3
1
W
17.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
13.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
2
1
W
29.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
4
L
20.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
1
2
L
15.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Tammeka
1
3
L
02.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Vaprus
3
2
W
25.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
2
1
W
22.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kalju Nomme
1
7
L
18.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Laagri
1
2
L
11.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
5
1
W
08.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Paide
1
3
L
04.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
1
D
21.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Tammeka
2
3
L
14.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Vaprus
7
1
W
07.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
20.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Viimsi
5
1
W
14.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
FC Tallinn
3
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
3
3
D
01.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
FS Jelgava
1
4
L
Last matches: Paide
28.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
21.06.26
Mei
Paide
Flora Tallinn
2
1
W
17.06.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
1
0
W
14.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
31.05.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
1
D
20.05.26
Mei
Paide
Trans Narva
0
1
L
17.05.26
Mei
Paide
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
01.05.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
0
1
L
26.04.26
Mei
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
22.04.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
2
2
D
19.04.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
12.04.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
4
1
W
08.04.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
3
1
W
03.04.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
0
W
22.03.26
Mei
Paide
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
2
D
15.03.26
Mei
Paide
Trans Narva
1
0
W
07.03.26
Mei
Paide
Vaprus
2
3
L
28.02.26
Fri
Paide
Super Nova
1
0
W
20.02.26
Fri
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
3
L
14.02.26
Fri
Paide
Kalju Nomme
2
1
W
H2H: Nõmme United vs Paide
10.05.26
H2H
Nõmme United
Paide
2
3
L
08.04.26
H2H
Paide
Nõmme United
3
1
L
03.11.24
H2H
Nõmme United
Paide
0
4
L
14.09.24
H2H
Paide
Nõmme United
7
2
L
12.05.24
H2H
Nõmme United
Paide
0
1
L
10.03.24
H2H
Paide
Nõmme United
3
1
L
19.10.22
H2H
Nõmme United
Paide
0
4
L
Last matches: Nõmme United
17.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
29.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
4
L
25.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
2
1
W
18.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Laagri
1
2
L
11.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
5
1
W
21.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Tammeka
2
3
L
14.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Vaprus
7
1
W
14.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
FC Tallinn
3
0
W
01.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
FS Jelgava
1
4
L
31.01.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Tammeka
0
6
L
H2H at home: Nõmme United
10.05.26
H2H
Nõmme United
Paide
2
3
L
03.11.24
H2H
Nõmme United
Paide
0
4
L
12.05.24
H2H
Nõmme United
Paide
0
1
L
19.10.22
H2H
Nõmme United
Paide
0
4
L
Last matches: Paide
28.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
21.06.26
Mei
Paide
Flora Tallinn
2
1
W
14.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
20.05.26
Mei
Paide
Trans Narva
0
1
L
22.04.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
2
2
D
12.04.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
4
1
W
03.04.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
0
W
22.03.26
Mei
Paide
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
2
D
07.03.26
Mei
Paide
Vaprus
2
3
L
07.02.26
Fri
Paide
Trans Narva
1
1
D
19.01.26
Fri
Paide
FK Liepaja
1
3
L
31.07.25
UEF
Paide
AIK Stockholm
0
6
L
10.07.25
UEF
Paide
Magpies
3
2
W
H2H away: Paide
10.05.26
H2H
Nõmme United
Paide
2
3
W
03.11.24
H2H
Nõmme United
Paide
0
4
W
12.05.24
H2H
Nõmme United
Paide
0
1
W
19.10.22
H2H
Nõmme United
Paide
0
4
W

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 13 4 1 46:15 31 43
L D W W W
2 17 11 0 6 35:19 16 33
W L W L W
3 18 9 4 5 30:15 15 31
D D L D L
4
Paide Away
18 8 5 5 27:22 5 29
D W W D D
5 16 7 2 7 18:20 -2 23
W W D L W
6 17 7 2 8 21:31 -10 23
W L D W L
7 17 6 1 10 33:40 -7 19
W L W L L
8 17 6 1 10 21:30 -9 19
L L L W L
9 17 5 2 10 17:27 -10 17
L D W D W
10 17 3 1 13 11:40 -29 10
L D L L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga