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CROATIA › HNL
10.05.2026 16:15
Gradski stadion Ivan Kusek Apas
Referee: O. Romic
NK Slaven Belupo
Match Timeline
HNK Gorica
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
45+2'
S. Peric ↔ M. Les
HNK Gorica
🟨
46'
Zvonimir Katalinić
NK Slaven Belupo
🔄
46'
T. Epailly ↔ D. Pavicic
HNK Gorica
🟨
50'
Marko Lešković
NK Slaven Belupo
🔄
62'
J. Prsir ↔ L. Vrzic
HNK Gorica
🔄
65'
Z. Katalinic ↔ K. Isasegi
NK Slaven Belupo
🟨
68'
Mateo Leš
HNK Gorica
⚽
70'
F. Kruselj · Assist: D. Kovacic
NK Slaven Belupo
🔄
76'
M. Leskovic ↔ F. Kutlesa
NK Slaven Belupo
🔄
77'
L. Ratshukudu ↔ I. Nestorovski
NK Slaven Belupo
🔄
77'
I. Lepinjica ↔ M. Ascic
NK Slaven Belupo
🔄
78'
M. Cabraja ↔ W. Sule
HNK Gorica
🔄
78'
B. Bogojevic ↔ S. Kucis
HNK Gorica
🟨
87'
Leon Bošnjak
NK Slaven Belupo
🔄
88'
L. Bosnjak ↔ L. Geci
NK Slaven Belupo

NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Gorica Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 36.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 21.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 18.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
36.9%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
21.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
18.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
NK Slaven Belupo Win 36.9%
Draw 29.8%
HNK Gorica Win 33.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
NK Slaven Belupo1.34
HNK Gorica1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
NK Slaven Belupo NK Slaven Belupo
WWDLW
44 GF / 55 GA
HNK Gorica HNK Gorica
WLDWL
38 GF / 45 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
1.15
1.67
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
23
BTTS Yes
18
21
Over 2.5
16
3.85
Shots on Goal
3.55

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

NK Slaven Belupo NK Slaven Belupo 33 matches
HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 33 matches
NK Slaven Belupo Statistic HNK Gorica
9 Wins 10
11 Draws 8
13 Losses 15
44 Goals For 38
55 Goals Against 45
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 1.15
1.67 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
23 BTTS Yes 18
29 Over 1.5 24
21 Over 2.5 16
12 Over 3.5 9
5 Clean Sheets 7
8 Failed To Score 10
3.85 Shots On Goal 3.55
12.12 Total Shots 10.61
3.73 Corners 4.33
47.7% Ball Possession 44.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward HNK Gorica. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with NK Slaven Belupo expected to line up in 4-3-3 and HNK Gorica in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward HNK Gorica having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

NK Slaven Belupo Analysis

NK Slaven Belupo approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 8 with 38 points from 33 matches. The overall return of 9 wins, 11 draws, and 13 defeats with a 44:55 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Josip Mitrović (8 goals), A. Jagusic (7 goals), I. Nestorovski (6 goals), with creative support from Ante Šuto (5 assists), L. Crepulja (5 assists), A. Jagusic (4 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 7 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

HNK Gorica Analysis

With 38 points from 33 games and a place of 7, HNK Gorica still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 10 wins, 8 draws, and 15 defeats with a 38:45 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Jurica Pršir (7 goals), A. Erceg (5 goals), F. Cuic (4 goals), with creative support from Iker Pozo (6 assists), Marijan Čabraja (4 assists), Jurica Pršir (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, NK Slaven Belupo won 8 times, HNK Gorica won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:13 from NK Slaven Belupo's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (70.2%)
Predicted formations: NK Slaven Belupo 4-3-3 / HNK Gorica 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: NK Slaven Belupo wins 8, draws 4, HNK Gorica wins 3

Standings

HNL
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 36 27 5 4 93:28 65 86
D W W W W
2 36 20 8 8 61:36 25 68
W D L W D
3 36 15 9 12 47:46 1 54
W W D L L
4 36 14 11 11 49:36 13 53
W D W W D
5 36 10 14 12 40:52 -12 44
D D D L D
6 36 12 7 17 39:50 -11 43
L D W W L
7 36 10 11 15 46:61 -15 41
L L W L D
8 36 11 8 17 40:48 -8 41
L W L L W
9 36 8 11 17 27:49 -22 35
W L L L D
10 36 6 10 20 37:73 -36 28
L L L W D
Champions League Qualification
UEFA Europa League Qualification
Conference League Qualification
Relegation