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🇺🇸 USA › MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
10.10.2026 23:30
Sports Illustrated Stadium

New York Red Bulls vs San Diego Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 64.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
64.7%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
58.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
80.6%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
New York Red Bulls Win 35.3%
Draw 22.3%
San Diego Win 42.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
New York Red Bulls1.54
San Diego1.83
Recent Form (Last 5)
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls
WWDLW
47 GF / 64 GA
San Diego San Diego
WLDWL
56 GF / 55 GA
Key Stats
1.42
Average Goals Scored
1.75
1.94
Average Goals Conceded
1.72
20
BTTS Yes
17
21
Over 2.5
21
4.63
Shots on Goal
4.39

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 33 matches
San Diego San Diego 32 matches
New York Red Bulls Statistic San Diego
11 Wins 11
6 Draws 8
16 Losses 13
47 Goals For 56
64 Goals Against 55
1.42 Avg Goals Scored 1.75
1.94 Avg Goals Conceded 1.72
20 BTTS Yes 17
28 Over 1.5 25
21 Over 2.5 21
15 Over 3.5 17
5 Clean Sheets 8
9 Failed To Score 7
4.63 Shots On Goal 4.39
13.04 Total Shots 11.55
5.67 Corners 4.61
51.9% Ball Possession 58%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors San Diego. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with New York Red Bulls expected to line up in 4-3-3 and San Diego in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward San Diego having the stronger overall control. San Diego arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

New York Red Bulls Analysis

New York Red Bulls are currently 8 in the standings with 33 points from 27 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 6 draws, and 12 losses, while the 34:51 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Ruvalcaba (7 goals), Julian Hall (5 goals), Ronald Donkor (2 goals), with creative support from Julian Hall (3 assists), Ronald Donkor (3 assists), E. Forsberg (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

San Diego Analysis

With 32 points from 27 games and a place of 12, San Diego still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 8 draws, and 11 defeats, and the 47:47 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Ingvartsen (8 goals), A. Dreyer (4 goals), D. Vazquez (3 goals), with creative support from A. Dreyer (8 assists), O. Valakari (3 assists), L. Morgan (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, New York Red Bulls won 0 times, San Diego won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:6 from New York Red Bulls's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 6 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (77.8%)
Predicted formations: New York Red Bulls 4-3-3 / San Diego 3-4-3
H2H summary: New York Red Bulls wins 0, draws 0, San Diego wins 1

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 18 6 3 55:21 34 60
W W D L D
2 27 14 4 9 45:36 9 46
L W W W L
3 27 12 10 5 64:50 14 46
L D D D D
4 27 12 7 8 47:38 9 43
L W D W D
5 26 12 6 8 46:38 8 42
W L L D D
6 27 11 6 10 54:44 10 39
W W W W W
7 27 10 4 13 48:64 -16 34
L L W W W
8 27 9 6 12 34:51 -17 33
L W W L D
9 27 8 9 10 41:36 5 33
D L W L D
10 26 8 9 9 55:64 -9 33
L D D L L
11 26 6 12 8 34:42 -8 30
D L D W D
12 27 8 5 14 39:43 -4 29
W W L L W
13 27 6 11 10 39:51 -12 29
L L L W D
14 27 7 6 14 32:45 -13 27
D W D L D
15 27 6 6 15 34:54 -20 24
W L L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)