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🇺🇸 USA › MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
22.04.2026 23:30
Sports Illustrated Stadium
Referee: Marcos de Oliveira, USA
New York Red Bulls
Match Timeline
DC United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
15'
J. Hall · Assist: R. Donkor
New York Red Bulls
⚽
21'
R. Donkor
New York Red Bulls
⚽
37'
T. Baribo · Assist: J. Hopkins
DC United
🔄
46'
M. Dos Santos ↔ J. Masanka Bungi
New York Red Bulls
🟨
50'
Adri Mehmeti
New York Red Bulls
⚽
52'
J. Ruvalcaba · Assist: E. Forsberg
New York Red Bulls
⚽
54'
J. Hopkins · Assist: Peglow
DC United
⚽
59'
T. Baribo · Assist: Peglow
DC United
🔄
65'
A. Mehmeti ↔ G. Berggren
New York Red Bulls
🔄
65'
R. Mosquera ↔ M. Sofo
New York Red Bulls
⚽
71'
J. Ruvalcaba · Assist: R. Donkor
New York Red Bulls
🔄
77'
A. Herrera ↔ C. Clark
DC United
🔄
80'
J. Ruvalcaba ↔ E. M. Choupo-Moting
New York Red Bulls
⚽
80'
T. Baribo · Assist: S. Hefti
DC United
🔄
81'
J. Hopkins ↔ J. Murrell
DC United
🔄
81'
B. Servania ↔ N. Markovic
DC United
🟨
86'
Matti Peltola
DC United
🟨
90'
Caden Clark
DC United
🔄
90+3'
Peglow ↔ J. Stroud
DC United

New York Red Bulls vs DC United Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 73.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.7%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
73.3%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.6%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
New York Red Bulls Win 57.7%
Draw 12.4%
DC United Win 29.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
New York Red Bulls1.55
DC United1.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls
WWDLW
25 GF / 32 GA
DC United DC United
WLDWL
5 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
1.79
Average Goals Scored
0.45
2.29
Average Goals Conceded
1.18
10
BTTS Yes
3
12
Over 2.5
4
5.63
Shots on Goal
2.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 14 matches
DC United DC United 11 matches
New York Red Bulls Statistic DC United
5 Wins 2
2 Draws 4
7 Losses 5
25 Goals For 5
32 Goals Against 13
1.79 Avg Goals Scored 0.45
2.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.18
10 BTTS Yes 3
13 Over 1.5 4
12 Over 2.5 4
9 Over 3.5 2
2 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 7
5.63 Shots On Goal 2.38
14.5 Total Shots 9.63
7.13 Corners 4
59% Ball Possession 41%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring DC United. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward DC United having the stronger overall control.

New York Red Bulls Analysis

New York Red Bulls are currently 8 in the standings with 11 points from 8 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, while the 11:15 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Hall (5 goals), K. Smith (2 goals), A. Mehmeti (1 goals), with creative support from J. Hall (2 assists), A. Mehmeti (2 assists), E. Forsberg (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with J. Che, A. Marcucci, C. Harper unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

DC United Analysis

DC United are currently 9 in the standings with 8 points from 8 matches. The record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 4:9 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through T. Baribo (3 goals), M. Peltola (1 goals), with creative support from Peglow (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with H. Karamoko, G. Segal, S. Nealis unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, New York Red Bulls won 7 times, DC United won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 29:17 from New York Red Bulls's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.6%)
Predicted formations: New York Red Bulls 4-4-2 / DC United 4-4-2
Missing players: New York Red Bulls 3, DC United 4
H2H summary: New York Red Bulls wins 7, draws 5, DC United wins 3

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 19 6 3 59:22 37 63
W W W D L
2 28 13 10 5 68:50 18 49
W L D D D
3 28 14 6 8 51:40 11 48
W W W L L
4 28 14 4 10 45:39 6 46
L L W W W
5 28 13 7 8 50:40 10 46
W L W D W
6 28 12 6 10 56:45 11 42
W W W W W
7 28 11 4 13 51:66 -15 37
W L L W W
8 28 10 6 12 38:52 -14 36
W L W W L
9 27 9 9 9 58:65 -7 36
W L D D L
10 28 8 9 11 42:38 4 33
L D L W L
11 28 7 11 10 41:52 -11 32
W L L L W
12 27 6 12 9 34:46 -12 30
L D L D W
13 28 8 5 15 41:46 -5 29
L W W L L
14 28 7 6 15 33:48 -15 27
L D W D L
15 28 6 6 16 35:56 -21 24
L W L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)